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    2006-10-31

    建筑

    建筑对于我来说,一开始只是一种美感的享受和结构的欣赏。然而随着自身经验的增加,感觉建筑真正意义上的美感和结构不仅仅来源于外表和传统的功能主义,而是对于居者的把握与引导。

    如果设计一个Library,Museum或者Workshop,你会选择什么样的布局?

    对于Library或Workshop而言,置身其中的人大部分寻求的是一种注意力的集中,外部环境应当成为思维的扩展,而不会干扰思维,有变化但不会过于丰富噪杂,一种开阔的环境或者自由的视野反而会起到不好的效果。
    Renzo Piano Building Workshop, Genoa, Italy
    Renzo Piano,我最喜欢的建筑家之一,在他Genoa的Building Workshop里面,采用的是一种广阔的视野,依靠地势而建的阶梯式工作间用玻璃天花板覆盖,然而我怀疑在日光充足的白天,这样的布局会影响工作者的注意力,因为光线是非常重要的因素。莫若分割成自由的小空间,而开在上面的玻璃天花板扩展了视野,白天最好封闭,而夜晚空间有限的扩展会补充思维的单调,起到放松作用,而不会破坏思维的连贯。
    Notre Dame du Haut, Ronchamp, France
    而对于需要思维扩展的Museum或者Church来说,一种自由,开放的空间表达则会有助作品的理解,比如Gaudi,Corbusier,Gehry的作品。
    Guggenheim Museum, Bilbao, Spain
    而其实在中国古代的苏州园林,也有很好的扩展,用类似镂空墙所产生的别有洞天的效果,改变了布局的单调,在贝聿铭的香山饭店的设计中,也采用了这样的改变,不过线条单调规范的此洞天远比苏州园林的彼洞天逊色。
    Fragrant Hill Hotel, Beijing, China
    通过这种自由随意的形式,有助于思维的放松,如果在这样的大环境中,放置类似于Library或者Workshop类规范的设计,会起到相得益彰的效果,反之亦然。

    "We shape our buildings; thereafter they shape us."

    — Sir Winston Churchill

    2006-10-28

    Three pillars

    Date: 2006-10-26
    Ticker: %S
    Event:: Read Duffie’s book
    Title: Three pillars
    Content:

    “The three pillars of the theory, arbitrage, optimality and equilibrium, ……”
    - Darrell Duffie, “Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory”

    This excerpt is a super elucidating explanation on financial theory, both in theory and practice.

    Pure arbitrage is only realized when your portfolio eliminate all the uncertain factors. For a more elegant formulation, see the vector space demonstration in Duffie’s book. If not, your portfolio is just hedged.

    Optimality is supposed to be the guideline of financial world. Though in behavior financial, they show doubts about whether there is a sure or could-be-derived utility for individual (I totally agree with this point of view in consideration of the extreme unpredictable weird incentive when people buy stocks), there seems to be really an invisible hand when we are making decisions. If we are put in an experimental environment, such effect may be more obvious.

    Equilibrium is how the financial machine runs. People want to buy and people want to buy.; equilibrium leads them. Sometimes demand and supply dominates which is often called liquidity. In a more general view, the whole financial world is not some Brownian motion, but a dynamical system at its general equilibrium which is connected by tremendous individual equilibria.

    So for arbitrage, we ask is our world really arbitrage free? Despite of correlations among atoms like stocks and bonds, uncontrollable financial innovations such as options, swaps, really make the world complicated.

    For optimality, we are wondering the term structure of people’s behaviors. Behind the simplification as Brownian motion, we are looking for more interaction to avoid tragedy like LTCM.

    For equilibrium, an interesting question is combined with optimality, is the world more beautiful with financial innovations? With options, it seems option underwriter and buyer are both better off. To be more complicated, the infinite persons’ big game is like a whirlpool. Everyone has the right to make and take any product; every product has its own demand and supply curve. Adding atoms, the game becomes really interesting.

    2006-10-24

    Spot jumps

    Date: 2006-10-23
    Ticker: %S
    Event:: Earning release
    Title: Spot jumps
    Content:

    There are many types of trading strategies. Betting on earnings is a common one. However, this is not a simple “to be or not to be” problem. The outcome may be quite complicated.

    First call EPS by Thomason is widely regarded as a threshold to measure a public company’s performance. But a single number can’t tell the whole story. Behind it, there may be scrutiny, sentiment, panic and more a newbie may not expect.
    You may lose in bull and gain in bear. For earning jumps, it is more obvious. The key is not only to know the general trend, but also to know it quantitatively and to resist your sentiment.

    Just share some experiences:

    1) DO NOT bet on a fundamentally deteriorated stock:
    If you are not a risk seeker, make your bet consistent in both short-term and long-term. This will help to limit the loss if you lose your bet.

    2) Four types:
    To spot the jumps, you should be first clear about current market's view point on the stock. Use a similar way to Friedman's, we label the stock by four possible tags: Good angle; Bad angle; Good evil; Bad evil. Generally, evil class includes the most rewarding one: Good evil and the most dangerous one: Bad evil. Good angle may rally but since expectation is already very high, investors are very picky. Room is limited and danger remains. Bad angle may plummet once but hopefully the jump is limited within 5% and rebound is expected in long-term.

    3) Overreaction:
    Most interesting thing in betting on earnings is to take profit from overdone in early rash. When news comes out, after extreme fluctuation, investors build early equilibrium in extended hours which is usually quite volatile and often overdone. For rally, usually prediction is a little hard. But for plummet, usually overpanic is easy to spot by rule 2). Of course, nothing universal. It depends on many factors. But with good timing, you may even earn after the release than before the release.

    2006-10-23

    Timing Tricks

    Date: 2006-10-23

    Ticker: %S

    Event:: any

    Title: Timing Tricks

    Content:

    “Timing is everything” may be one of the most famous Wall Street sayings. But as truth is, every simple principle is complicated actually. If any simple principle works, market can’t be efficient.

    Simply list several tricks here:

    1) On market open and close, volume is huge and price move is quite volatile. Many orders are market type. The market open rash may last for one hour till 10:30AM ET while market close period may only start from 15:50PM ET for about 10 minutes. For many stocks, one-day high or low may appear in these two periods. However, market open may be more meaningful for intra-day traders while market close is for next day.

    2) Noon is when most traders are out for a break. It may last for 2-3 hours. Volume is slow and spread is usually larger. What’s more important, for a “V” day, bottom may appear in such period too. It may be safer to buy now than on market open.

    3) Extended hours are important. Not only because most fiscal results are released before or after normal trading hours, the extreme volatility and uncertainty may give a good sensed trader more money than normal hours. Of course, risk is also proportional. A good bed to test your trader sense.

    All for today. To be continued.......

    2006-10-22

    Trust your LCD

    Date: 2006-10-21

    Ticker: MMM

    Event:: MMM 3Q result release

    Title: Trust your LCD

    Content:

    Have you once noticed the brand of your shirt’s buttons when you dress up? Have you ever wondered who makes the closure when you open a wine? If so, follow me.

    Headlines are mostly dominated by “models” like GOOG, MSFT, INTC, etc. But look deep and you’ll find the tailors and cloth producers at backstage. They are always there.

    Check out Dow30 and you will find some big names: JNJ, DD, MMM, PG……

    They are upstream and I like this strategy. In a gold rash, best way to make big money is not to be a gold rasher but a service provider. Like Wall Street? Be Bloomberg or theStreet.com. Like eBusiness? Be PayPal or Verisign. Speaking of LCD, what you see is not what you get. What you can’t see is what you should buy. Samsung, LG Philips, Sharp, are you going to predict No. 1, 2, 3? But 3M may get benefits from all by its optical film.

    It doesn’t mean upstream is always heaven or Dow30 are always God lovers. They may fluctuate, even slump overnight, but this fluctuation is more like true fluctuations. It should be textbook samples for chartists, should be picks of fund managers, and should be top considerations in your long-term portfolio. Just need the sense of fundamental to spot bottom and trend.

    Things will be just fine
    You and I'll just use a little patience

    -Guns N’ Roses, “Patience”

    When you are Lorenz’s butterfly

    Date: 2006-10-20

    Ticker: %S

    Event:: whatever

    Title: When you are Lorenz’s butterfly

    Content:

    Flap

    Wings of a butterfly

    Hurricane

    Wall Street's Sky

    If a butterfly can do that, you may wonder your sell of 1 MSFT or GOOG share may change Forbes list fundamentally? No way.

    So is this just because we don’t have wings or have fewer legs? Not quite possible.

    Actually the butterfly example is very similar to Wall Street case. We are exposed to short-term uncertainty and long-term steadiness at the same time.

    As individual, we care more about tomorrow will rain or not but not what the world will be after 100 years due to global warming. Similarly, for me, trading is more like to spot trend but not do fundamental analysis.

    Buy low and sell high. It’s the philosophy, meaning something universally true but useless. To know the market is to know bulk of investors outstanding like you. Now, it’s not Brownian motion. The market is just what you make.

    Of course it’s hard to predict when flew move. Sort of art instead of science. I refer you to Jim Cramer’s Real Money for a good introduction. It’s not all and DO NOT just read.

    Be an early butterfly but not a lonely one.

    And I'm feeling blue
    Things you say but maybe they're true
    Getting funny dreams again and again
    I know what it means but
    I can't explain

    -Scorpions, “Can’t Explain”

    What can’t be googled

    Date: 2006-10-20

    Ticker: GOOG

    Event:: GOOG 3Q result release

    Title: What can’t be googled

    Content:

    After YouTube acquisition, on its way to $500, Google gets another big boost today from its 3Q results. The stock may jump to $460 driven by the news, only $40 below the historical moment. My current feeling is it should at least kiss it once in short term and then show respect to gravity.

    The EPS is really somewhat absurd if we looking at the numbers. Financial sector companies usually have a habit to widely beat the expectations due to their secret operations. But for Google, this is just to say the market is too volatile and hard to predict. Actually, this time triumph is not as good as previous two beats, 12% and 16%. But it’s not linear and don’t forget the expectation is already very high.

    At current level, pessimism and optimism should reach a balance. Margin is good but maybe near peak, expansion is good but facing keener competition, core product is good but too single-handed. But, but, but……

    But uncertainty is exciting.

    Google has a good “heart”, huge free cash to prey as many preys as it wants, bubbled online companies as downstream, and tons of talents in its ideas reserve bank. How many catalysts you want, how many they get.

    Just watch out Vista, it may be a big blow to give Google a short heart attack. Anyway, it’s something going to happen on the way to be a grown up.

    Market should be efficient speaking of Google’s long-term prospect. But it would be still one of the hottest stocks to challenge any investor’s sense and sensibility in short term.

    It's something unpredictable, but in the end it's right.
    I hope you had the time of your life.

    -Green Day, “Good Riddance

    The American pick

    Date: 2006-10-19

    Ticker: AAPL

    Event:: Apple 3Q result release

    Title: The American pick

    Content:

    Like its logo, Apple’s 3Q result seems not so perfect. Yes, current quarter’s EPS is ok. Core products are not so bad. But there are still many cloudy signs. Forecasts not good as analysts had expected, iPod sales slowing down, future good but merely conjectures. If you have seen the market’s cautious reactions on other companies with even better results these days, you would be wise enough to sell off to avoid loss.

    But forget it. We are talking about Apple.

    So “disappointment” becomes company’s “conservativeness”. Positives less negatives result positive. Apple wins.

    This company seems to be an icon for American, an enterprise with profit and respect. For a long time, there are two stocks with “Strong Buy” tags all the time. One is Apple and Microsoft takes the other slot. But they are regarded different: a returned superman and a profitable evil. Listen to Jim Cramer’s program and you will know how many people buy Apple shares simply because they like this company. It gets supporters from iPod, Mac, Macbook, etc. A representative of so-called American spirit, sometimes I feel.

    So the release seems to be only a long waited catalyst. People are waiting for so long and who would be so picky at this supposed-to-be party moment. Nobody.

    That sounds insane but it’s true. If we can harvest profit, fundamental, love and dignity all in one stock, isn’t it perfect?

    Wall Street shows its sentiment sometimes.

    If you are looking for more such stocks, have a look at ORCL and CSCO.

    Is this love that I'm feeling
    Is this the love that I've been searching for
    Is this love or am I dreaming
    This must be love
    Cos it's really got a hold on me
    A hold on me

    -Whitesnake, “Is this love