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    2011-12-09

    My question after watching Ferris Bueller's Day Off got answered

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-remington/where-did-you-go-mia-sara_b_171595.html

    It's true. The 18 years old Sloan Peterson is enough.

    2011-10-06

    乔布斯

    会想一个很简单的问题:如果没有乔布斯,没有iPod,iPhone,iPad,世界会是怎么样?会有另一个乔布斯么?从小接受必然性教育的我们或许会倾销于否定世界的发展依赖于某个偶然性,然而两者并不冲突,正如世界的发展依赖于科技进步,然而周期性的震荡起伏也是不可忽视的同样重要的特征。乔布斯一方面激励了许多年轻人投身创新事业,另一方面他确立的苹果的巨大优势也会树立一个巨大的壁垒,减低了它所处行业的波动程度。当乔布斯离去,不可避免的是会有一些冲击,main street和wall street一样,部分是建立在对于未来的期望上的,从这个角度,我们只是在期待另一个disruptive innovation的出现。如此循环,周而复始。

    关于乔布斯个人的评价,我想可以套用Paul Krugman在Who was Milton Friedman?里面所写的:

    Milton Friedman played three roles in the intellectual life of the twentieth century. There was Friedman the economist’s economist, who wrote technical, more or less apolitical analyses of consumer behavior and inflation. There was Friedman the policy entrepreneur, who spent decades campaigning on behalf of the policy known as monetarism—finally seeing the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England adopt his doctrine at the end of the 1970s, only to abandon it as unworkable a few years later. Finally, there was Friedman the ideologue, the great popularizer of free-market doctrine.

    2011-09-30

    Skyhooks versus Cranes

    http://chartercities.org/blog/72/skyhooks-versus-cranes-the-nobel-prize-for-elinor-ostrom

    Paul Romer made a very good point by pointing out: One of the central challenges in understanding failures of economic development is that in many places, police officers don’t follow the rules they are meant to enforce. 


    This is what is happening in China now. We have everything figured out, and the only problem seems to be that  no one bothers to do those righteous things.

    2011-09-27

    The power of twitter

    如果你不在Wall Street,意味着信息劣势,但现在这些都随着twitter有所好转。在今天10:20AM(美国时间),RIMM的股价开始突然攀升,要么是有正面消息,要么是有大笔买入,后一种可能随着股价的维持高位而淡出。虽然我持有RIMM也是基于M&A的可能性,不过这一猜测还没有得到验证。

    在twitter上,大概10:25AM开始出现消息是由于Icahn入股(不知道他们是从什么渠道得到的消息),而正式的渠道呢?Forbes,10:48AM,WSJ blog,10:53AM...

    最近看的三部不错的电影

    Paths of Glory

    库布里克导演,柯克道格拉斯主演。场景,剧情和其中的黑色幽默有点类似Dr. Strangelove。这是我看的第一部柯克道格拉斯主演的电影,不得不说,麦克道格拉斯简直就是他父亲的翻版,尤其是说话的神情和语调。

    The Great Debaters

    一部有关美国种族歧视的纪录片,两个主演Denzel Washington和Forest Whitaker不错。

    The Insider

    基于真实故事改编的一部有关新闻自由和美国烟草业的剧情片。和第二部一样,Al Pacino和Russell Crowe的演技非常出色,尤其是Russell Crowe饰演的角色和他本身差异较大,能演好实在不易。

    2011-09-17

    Poor Kweku Adoboli

    Maybe my quick bucks had his contribution.. Anyway, in forex market, as Bill Lipschultz said, the most important thing is to ``stay in the market."

    Memory....


    Not a day goes by I don't feel regret, and not because I'm in here or because you think I should. I look back on myself the way I was...stupid kid who did that terrible crime...wish I could talk sense to him. Tell him how things are. But I can't. That kid's long gone, this old man is all that's left, and I have to live with that. 

    --- Red,  the Shawshank Redemption

    I was reviewing the draft posts just now. Saw an unfinished post written three years ago. I talked about prime numbers and its extension in other scientific areas, based on my reading of the book "The music of the primes" by Marcus du Sautoy.

    I was buried in books right then. Could probably check out 300+ books each year. Once found an interesting book with some positive online reviews, I would rush to the library to check it out. I usually couldn't finish the whole book, but it just took me 2-3 days to finish 30-50% of the book so I could come to a rough conclusion.

    The time's long gone. I can't remember the last time I picked up a book and enjoyed the fun of reading. And do I have to live with that?

    Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
    --- Andy,  the Shawshank Redemption



    OM-Finance Interface

    前一段被热炒的中国概念股在美国和香港被做空的消息,如果把Sino-forest看成这轮beta creating的loss leader,这个是不是也能归为OM-finance interface的研究问题

    2011-09-06

    Black Swan...

    EUR and CHF pegged.. And I watched EUR/USD jumped from 1.41 to nearly 1.43 in a few seconds. Luckily, I made a few quick bucks from the extreme volatility instead of being killed.

    2011-08-31

    又送别两个朋友告别香港

    送元二使安西

    王维


    渭城朝雨浥轻尘,客舍青青柳色新。
    劝君更尽一杯酒,西出阳关无故人。

    2011-06-19

    织月6年古酒


    25度,除了传统的清酒的体验,味道更浓郁,略有蜂蜜和花香的感觉。

    2011-05-05

    Silver/Gold Ratio in 3 Days

    Drop from 0.0316 to 0.026. Silver might have a short rebound after breaking the 40 support. It is right to take some profit and to reduce the bet against silver for the moment.

    2011-05-04

    TN: 2002 Bond St. Eden

    What a wine! Fruity upon the open, but on palate, you can feel something underneath. After one hour aeration, it begins to open up. The fruitiness is now companied with chocolate, plum. Another hour later, the wine becomes more spicy. Sweet and chewy. Meaty with emerging hint of coffee. Very long finish. It's a pity we finish it just two hours after decanting. It may show new flavors with more aeration. Can be enjoyed now but not fully developed. Should lay down for another 3-5 years.

    On Silver

    I am shorting silver, in a middle-term. A safer way may be to long the gold/silver ratio. That is, in another sense, to bet the role of silver as a hedge against inflation is relatively overvalued.

    2011-02-15

    Doodle Jump

    Doodle Jump其实就是反映了一个人类的本性,老老实实的可以一节一节往上爬,但正是由于在途中经常出现不同的诱惑,甚至同时有多个,玩者举棋不定,难以取舍,反而最终坠落。这也正是从Behavioral的角度解释为什么即便是个体优化,决策集增大表现不一定也是递增。

    2011-02-08

    Mind mapping software

    偶然在chrome store看到Mind Meister,回溯回去发现mind mapping软件系列,不少都是开源的。装了一个Freeplane,还不错,使用起来比较简单,将来写paper可以方便一点,也便于和collaborator之间交流。

    2011-02-07

    Chrome apps

    It's good. Very handy tools for online browsing. However, Google needs to redesign the Chrome layout a little bit.

    2011-02-06

    单口相声-幸福童年

    http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/v6vKzxvsctg/

    段子包袱抖得挺好,但线索有点乱。方清平的功底还是略显不足,如果换杨议(杨少华五子)说应该也不错,整段有些内容杨少华说起来会更出彩,不过不是全部都适合他的风格。

    2011-01-16

    2006 Chalis La Forest V. Dauvissat

    My first bottle of the famous Chablis wine. Really not my type of wine. Great acidity and a long finish. But on palate, there are just undetectable hints of mineral, apple and honey. Maybe too early to open or aeration can help? Will try it next time.

    2nd bottle: I opened the bottle and laid it for two days. The aeration does improve it a lot. The acidity fades away and the wine shows more balanced sweetness. Maybe someone may say it has lost its character. But it's more of my wine now.

    2011-01-08

    Dr. Strangelove

    An incredible movie.

    The future of iPad (and Apple?)

    Another article here.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/technology/personaltech/03tablet.html?ref=technology

    For Apple, like Tomjanovich said after Rockets won the 1995 NBA title, there have been "nonbelievers all along the way." The bears summoned power for every opportunity but only have failed miserably each time (I mean long-time bear, not those quick profit takers). So people may wonder, is this prediction just the beginning of another false alarm?

    It may or may not.

    I was pessimistic on iPad before its release, but changed my mind when I owned one myself. However, whether a product is successful or unsuccessful does not change the nature the game. In my opinion, either the cost or the technology can help latecomers overtake Apple. Cost advantage did not help them in the battle with iPod, iPhone, then how can it be effective in the iPad battle? As for the technology stuff, I think it's a pretty efficient market, and Apple may even have bigger change for new technology promotion given its dominant market power.

    The key is pointed out in the last part of the article, "you need developers."

    I have written a paper on the compatibility competition in network market, and I think the same logic applies to iPad, and to the future of Apple. It wouldn't be long for us to see a platform which can seamlessly put application for all tablets which would certainly undermine Apple's "social network" advantage. And I view that as the turning point and the catalyst necessary for me to short AAPL.

    2011-01-07

    老"朋友"

    今天刚看了Black Swan,一部表演的有点做作,情节略显单调的电影,然后去搜这类有点神经质的电影,意外找到了一部看过之后印象很深刻但一直没能再看到的电影,Misery

    根据Stephen King的小说改编的电影,里面Kathy Bates饰演的大妈极具压迫感和统治力,堪称神经质型杀手的典范。

    2011-01-05

    Sunset boulevard

    A famous old movie, directed by famous Billy Wilder. A plain story with a fantastic ending.