tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-364343382024-02-20T13:38:37.151+08:00Mavaronian Motionmavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.comBlogger406125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-48357862465873004042012-09-19T21:06:00.000+08:002012-09-19T21:06:01.080+08:00Jobs's Dead Man's ChestFrankly, I have a strong impulse to short AAPL after it hit $700. However, one big concern is I don't know what Jobs has left in his dead man's chest that was handed over to Tim Cook. iPhone5 is certainly not something from the chest. So we are still waiting. The chest may contain some disruptive idea that would rock the world like a black swan but it's also possible the chest contains nothing. Either way, a volatility play is much safer than directional bet. mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-3595657350679663012012-07-17T13:03:00.003+08:002012-07-17T13:03:45.165+08:00Jiro Dreams of Sushi虽然Jiro是一个寿司制作的大师,然而为人却略显苍白,导演未能将整个影片的节奏置于自己的控制之下,使得整个纪录片内容感觉单薄。mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-38146745209804478752012-07-17T13:01:00.000+08:002012-07-17T13:01:05.393+08:00Heroic PolonaiseArthur Rubinstein, Vladimir Horowitz, Yundi Li的演绎在我听来是三个境界。Horowitz的技巧无可挑剔,但Rubinstein的版本却似乎是更具感染力的表达。mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-25707331510640304042012-05-03T14:41:00.000+08:002012-05-03T14:41:23.511+08:00Ardbeg 10yoSpotted an old Ardbeg 10yo in McTear's auction, probably bottled in 60s or 70s. A little surprised to see it was estimated 100-200GBP. I was determined to pay 500GBP. And then the auctioneer said, "we will start the bid at 900GBP".... It was finally sold for 1200GBP.<br />
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I have no problem with the price given the popularity of Ardbeg and the rarity of 60/70s bottles .. But it is out of my reach.mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-90930255796346997702012-05-01T12:57:00.002+08:002012-05-01T12:57:06.611+08:00Some observations on China wine market I<b><i>China effect?</i></b><br />
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China has become the buzzword in the wine industry in recent years. Most of the time, the reference to <i>China effect</i> is used to justify skyrocketing wine prices, especially those of Bordeaux and Burgundy. After the past few go-go years, it seems everyone is now taking a break and tries to figure out where the China wine market is heading in the future.<br />
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I am not a wine expert or wine dealer. However, I do have my own first-hand experience about the China wine market. Given the great misunderstanding that I read everyday on the Internet, I would like to provide some of my own observations on the China wine market.<br />
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When talking about the China wine market, people will probably think of Chateau Lafite at first. I still remember when I bought a case of Carruades de Lafite IB and sold back to the dealer just a few months later at twice the previous price. While this is an impressive case, it doesn't provide much information. First, in terms of this part of market, China is the same as all other wine-consuming countries, i.e., dominated by the basic supply-demand relationship. Given a limited supply (well, let's not consider those fake bottles at the moment), increasing demand leads to increasing price. Second, Chateau Lafite is not big enough to benefit anyone (excluding the halo effect at the moment). So I guess people may be concerned about two more fundamental questions: What is the real driving force behind the Lafite frenzy? And, for those wine producers and dealers who can't get their hands on Lafite, what is the meaning of a prospering China wine market to them?<br />
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<b><i><br /></i></b><br />mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-80833007751847591382012-04-18T16:45:00.001+08:002012-04-18T16:45:26.242+08:00Bought an antique bowl accidentallyIts accurate description should be 清广彩开光人物故事大碗. The decoration and drawing on the bowl indicate that it should be made and exported in late 19th century.mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-56138326437521818102012-03-13T13:05:00.003+08:002012-03-13T13:06:32.858+08:00I am into whisky now...Forget about wines. Start my investment in whikies, but only at reasonable prices.<br />
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First batch:<br />
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Brora, Macallan, Laphroaig, Lochsidemavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-71830539875299398972012-03-06T22:50:00.001+08:002012-03-06T22:55:35.585+08:00晴耕雨读烧酒萨摩本格芋烧酎。也就20度左右,在常温喝水味较重,冰后在0-5度品尝反而更有风味,果香米香更为明显,酒精的配合也恰到好处,口感更为醇厚。mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-71437579114556746012012-02-04T17:12:00.001+08:002012-02-04T17:14:42.309+08:00Ravida Extra Virgin Olive OilBought at city'super. Strong flavor. Green glass, hint of pepper and a little bitterness. Nutty. Long finish. Excellent.mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-16997039536865895802011-12-09T21:10:00.001+08:002011-12-09T21:17:54.620+08:00My question after watching Ferris Bueller's Day Off got answered<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha-NcNm5F6HZEdgXtdHGqzP7oak6YQMShZxDZjEw8qo38CjtE70DIpN-GHZHIo7OknXmrahB8yqFdTdwCEmjqSqHHoc3fopEoX3sBlP2Mw5bRIJ9gUBwJfroGW1Vge9fqGoy45mA/s1600/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha-NcNm5F6HZEdgXtdHGqzP7oak6YQMShZxDZjEw8qo38CjtE70DIpN-GHZHIo7OknXmrahB8yqFdTdwCEmjqSqHHoc3fopEoX3sBlP2Mw5bRIJ9gUBwJfroGW1Vge9fqGoy45mA/s200/images.jpg" width="154" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-remington/where-did-you-go-mia-sara_b_171595.html">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-remington/where-did-you-go-mia-sara_b_171595.html</a><br />
<br />
It's true. The 18 years old Sloan Peterson is enough.mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-55754542995338928742011-10-06T10:44:00.002+08:002011-10-06T10:46:25.671+08:00乔布斯会想一个很简单的问题:如果没有乔布斯,没有iPod,iPhone,iPad,世界会是怎么样?会有另一个乔布斯么?从小接受必然性教育的我们或许会倾销于否定世界的发展依赖于某个偶然性,然而两者并不冲突,正如世界的发展依赖于科技进步,然而周期性的震荡起伏也是不可忽视的同样重要的特征。乔布斯一方面激励了许多年轻人投身创新事业,另一方面他确立的苹果的巨大优势也会树立一个巨大的壁垒,减低了它所处行业的波动程度。当乔布斯离去,不可避免的是会有一些冲击,main street和wall street一样,部分是建立在对于未来的期望上的,从这个角度,我们只是在期待另一个disruptive innovation的出现。如此循环,周而复始。<br />
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<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
关于乔布斯个人的评价,我想可以套用Paul Krugman在<i>Who was Milton Friedman?</i>里面所写的:</div>
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“<i>Milton Friedman played three roles in the intellectual life of the twentieth century. There was Friedman the economist’s economist, who wrote technical, more or less apolitical analyses of consumer behavior and inflation. There was Friedman the policy entrepreneur, who spent decades campaigning on behalf of the policy known as monetarism—finally seeing the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England adopt his doctrine at the end of the 1970s, only to abandon it as unworkable a few years later. Finally, there was Friedman the ideologue, the great popularizer of free-market doctrine.</i>”</div>
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</div>
mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-2971760121357183942011-09-30T14:29:00.001+08:002011-09-30T14:29:31.798+08:00Skyhooks versus Cranes<a href="http://chartercities.org/blog/72/skyhooks-versus-cranes-the-nobel-prize-for-elinor-ostrom">http://chartercities.org/blog/72/skyhooks-versus-cranes-the-nobel-prize-for-elinor-ostrom</a><br />
<br />
Paul Romer made a very good point by pointing out: <i>One of the central challenges in understanding failures of economic development is that in many places, police officers don’t follow the rules they are meant to enforce. </i><br />
<i><br /></i><br />
This is what is happening in China now. We have everything figured out, and the only problem seems to be that no one bothers to do those righteous things.mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-63400472600127232422011-09-27T23:17:00.001+08:002011-09-27T23:22:18.691+08:00The power of twitter如果你不在Wall Street,意味着信息劣势,但现在这些都随着twitter有所好转。在今天10:20AM(美国时间),RIMM的股价开始突然攀升,要么是有正面消息,要么是有大笔买入,后一种可能随着股价的维持高位而淡出。虽然我持有RIMM也是基于M&A的可能性,不过这一猜测还没有得到验证。<br />
<br />
在twitter上,大概10:25AM开始出现消息是由于Icahn入股(不知道他们是从什么渠道得到的消息),而正式的渠道呢?Forbes,10:48AM,WSJ blog,10:53AM...mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-64509677993335853002011-09-27T22:21:00.001+08:002011-09-27T22:21:47.450+08:00最近看的三部不错的电影Paths of Glory<br />
<br />
库布里克导演,柯克道格拉斯主演。场景,剧情和其中的黑色幽默有点类似Dr. Strangelove。这是我看的第一部柯克道格拉斯主演的电影,不得不说,麦克道格拉斯简直就是他父亲的翻版,尤其是说话的神情和语调。<br />
<br />
The Great Debaters<br />
<br />
一部有关美国种族歧视的纪录片,两个主演Denzel Washington和Forest Whitaker不错。<br />
<br />
The Insider<br />
<br />
基于真实故事改编的一部有关新闻自由和美国烟草业的剧情片。和第二部一样,Al Pacino和Russell Crowe的演技非常出色,尤其是Russell Crowe饰演的角色和他本身差异较大,能演好实在不易。mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-42022635700755049022011-09-17T23:34:00.002+08:002011-09-17T23:34:39.579+08:00Poor Kweku AdoboliMaybe my quick bucks had his contribution.. Anyway, in forex market, as Bill Lipschultz said, the most important thing is to ``stay in the market."mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-8019287628163167652011-09-17T23:30:00.002+08:002011-09-17T23:30:36.345+08:00Memory....<br />
<blockquote>
<i>Not a day goes by I don't feel regret, and not because I'm in here or because you think I should. I look back on myself the way I was...stupid kid who did that terrible crime...wish I could talk sense to him. Tell him how things are. But I can't. That kid's long gone, this old man is all that's left, and I have to live with that. </i></blockquote>
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
--- Red, <i><b> the Shawshank Redemption</b></i></div>
<br />
I was reviewing the draft posts just now. Saw an unfinished post written three years ago. I talked about prime numbers and its extension in other scientific areas, based on my reading of the book "The music of the primes" by Marcus du Sautoy.<br />
<br />
I was buried in books right then. Could probably check out 300+ books each year. Once found an interesting book with some positive online reviews, I would rush to the library to check it out. I usually couldn't finish the whole book, but it just took me 2-3 days to finish 30-50% of the book so I could come to a rough conclusion.<br />
<br />
The time's long gone. I can't remember the last time I picked up a book and enjoyed the fun of reading. And do I have to live with that?<br />
<br />
<blockquote>
<i>Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.</i></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: right;">
--- Andy, <i><b>the Shawshank Redemption</b></i></div>
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<br />mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-53595145147046936552011-09-17T23:11:00.000+08:002011-09-17T23:11:12.236+08:00OM-Finance Interface前一段被热炒的中国概念股在美国和香港被做空的消息,如果把Sino-forest看成这轮beta creating的loss leader,这个是不是也能归为OM-finance interface的研究问题mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-61478553424301199282011-09-06T16:13:00.001+08:002011-09-06T16:13:38.911+08:00Black Swan...EUR and CHF pegged.. And I watched EUR/USD jumped from 1.41 to nearly 1.43 in a few seconds. Luckily, I made a few quick bucks from the extreme volatility instead of being killed.mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-73591651882549495542011-08-31T20:29:00.000+08:002011-08-31T20:29:20.092+08:00又送别两个朋友告别香港送元二使安西<br />
<br />
王维<br />
<br />
<br />
渭城朝雨浥轻尘,客舍青青柳色新。<br />
劝君更尽一杯酒,西出阳关无故人。<br />
mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-71933408220347527162011-06-19T21:02:00.001+08:002011-06-19T21:04:31.074+08:00织月6年古酒<a href="http://thumbnail.image.rakuten.co.jp/@0_mall/sakenoimamura/cabinet/sengetsu/tarusengetsu_720_2.jpg?_ex=300x300&s=0&r=1" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://thumbnail.image.rakuten.co.jp/@0_mall/sakenoimamura/cabinet/sengetsu/tarusengetsu_720_2.jpg?_ex=300x300&s=0&r=1" width="121" /></a><br />
25度,除了传统的清酒的体验,味道更浓郁,略有蜂蜜和花香的感觉。mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-62902740450993590782011-05-06T10:03:00.002+08:002011-05-06T10:03:48.379+08:00This is the spark that is going to kill Apple<a href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/enterprise/2011/05/build-cross-platform-widgets-i.php">http://www.readwriteweb.com/enterprise/2011/05/build-cross-platform-widgets-i.php</a>mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-29044266129732977562011-05-05T08:00:00.001+08:002011-05-16T23:29:50.530+08:00Silver/Gold Ratio in 3 Days<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">Drop from 0.0316 to 0.026. Silver might have a short rebound after breaking the 40 support. It is right to take some profit and to reduce the bet against silver for the moment.</span>mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-70114098925279045422011-05-04T21:28:00.000+08:002011-05-04T21:28:22.114+08:00TN: 2002 Bond St. Eden<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">What a wine! Fruity upon the open, but on palate, you can feel something underneath. After one hour aeration, it begins to open up. The fruitiness is now companied with chocolate, plum. Another hour later, the wine becomes more spicy. Sweet and chewy. Meaty with emerging hint of coffee. Very long finish. It's a pity we finish it just two hours after decanting. It may show new flavors with more aeration. Can be enjoyed now but not fully developed. Should lay down for another 3-5 years.</span>mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0Tai Wai, Hong Kong22.3833333 114.1833332999999622.3669658 114.17040179999996 22.3997008 114.19626479999995tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-10094419915577473372011-05-04T08:21:00.001+08:002011-05-04T10:49:38.270+08:00On SilverI am shorting silver, in a middle-term. A safer way may be to long the gold/silver ratio. That is, in another sense, to bet the role of silver as a hedge against inflation is relatively overvalued.mavaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06853441578421276482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36434338.post-36017826027639471482011-03-29T21:34:00.000+08:002011-03-29T21:34:02.643+08:00City lightsTaken on a bridge over Shatin River.<br />
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