Mavaronian Motion

Ravida Extra Virgin Olive Oil

2012-02-04T17:12:00.001+08:00

Bought at city'super. Strong flavor. Green glass, hint of pepper and a little bitterness. Nutty. Long finish. Excellent.

My question after watching Ferris Bueller's Day Off got answered

2011-12-09T21:10:00.001+08:00

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-remington/where-did-you-go-mia-sara_b_171595.html

It's true. The 18 years old Sloan Peterson is enough.

乔布斯

2011-10-06T10:44:00.002+08:00

会想一个很简单的问题：如果没有乔布斯，没有iPod，iPhone，iPad，世界会是怎么样？会有另一个乔布斯么？从小接受必然性教育的我们或许会倾销于否定世界的发展依赖于某个偶然性，然而两者并不冲突，正如世界的发展依赖于科技进步，然而周期性的震荡起伏也是不可忽视的同样重要的特征。乔布斯一方面激励了许多年轻人投身创新事业，另一方面他确立的苹果的巨大优势也会树立一个巨大的壁垒，减低了它所处行业的波动程度。当乔布斯离去，不可避免的是会有一些冲击，main street和wall street一样，部分是建立在对于未来的期望上的，从这个角度，我们只是在期待另一个disruptive innovation的出现。如此循环，周而复始。

关于乔布斯个人的评价，我想可以套用Paul Krugman在Who was Milton Friedman？里面所写的:

“Milton Friedman played three roles in the intellectual life of the twentieth century. There was Friedman the economist’s economist, who wrote technical, more or less apolitical analyses of consumer behavior and inflation. There was Friedman the policy entrepreneur, who spent decades campaigning on behalf of the policy known as monetarism—finally seeing the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England adopt his doctrine at the end of the 1970s, only to abandon it as unworkable a few years later. Finally, there was Friedman the ideologue, the great popularizer of free-market doctrine.”

Skyhooks versus Cranes

2011-09-30T14:29:00.001+08:00

http://chartercities.org/blog/72/skyhooks-versus-cranes-the-nobel-prize-for-elinor-ostrom

Paul Romer made a very good point by pointing out: One of the central challenges in understanding failures of economic development is that in many places, police officers don’t follow the rules they are meant to enforce.

This is what is happening in China now. We have everything figured out, and the only problem seems to be that no one bothers to do those righteous things.

The power of twitter

2011-09-27T23:17:00.001+08:00

如果你不在Wall Street，意味着信息劣势，但现在这些都随着twitter有所好转。在今天10:20AM（美国时间），RIMM的股价开始突然攀升，要么是有正面消息，要么是有大笔买入，后一种可能随着股价的维持高位而淡出。虽然我持有RIMM也是基于M&A的可能性，不过这一猜测还没有得到验证。

在twitter上，大概10:25AM开始出现消息是由于Icahn入股(不知道他们是从什么渠道得到的消息)，而正式的渠道呢？Forbes，10:48AM，WSJ blog，10:53AM...

最近看的三部不错的电影

2011-09-27T22:21:00.001+08:00

Paths of Glory

库布里克导演，柯克道格拉斯主演。场景，剧情和其中的黑色幽默有点类似Dr. Strangelove。这是我看的第一部柯克道格拉斯主演的电影，不得不说，麦克道格拉斯简直就是他父亲的翻版，尤其是说话的神情和语调。

The Great Debaters

一部有关美国种族歧视的纪录片，两个主演Denzel Washington和Forest Whitaker不错。

The Insider

基于真实故事改编的一部有关新闻自由和美国烟草业的剧情片。和第二部一样，Al Pacino和Russell Crowe的演技非常出色，尤其是Russell Crowe饰演的角色和他本身差异较大，能演好实在不易。

Poor Kweku Adoboli

2011-09-17T23:34:00.002+08:00

Maybe my quick bucks had his contribution.. Anyway, in forex market, as Bill Lipschultz said, the most important thing is to ``stay in the market."

Memory....

2011-09-17T23:30:00.002+08:00

Not a day goes by I don't feel regret, and not because I'm in here or because you think I should. I look back on myself the way I was...stupid kid who did that terrible crime...wish I could talk sense to him. Tell him how things are. But I can't. That kid's long gone, this old man is all that's left, and I have to live with that.

--- Red, the Shawshank Redemption

I was reviewing the draft posts just now. Saw an unfinished post written three years ago. I talked about prime numbers and its extension in other scientific areas, based on my reading of the book "The music of the primes" by Marcus du Sautoy.

I was buried in books right then. Could probably check out 300+ books each year. Once found an interesting book with some positive online reviews, I would rush to the library to check it out. I usually couldn't finish the whole book, but it just took me 2-3 days to finish 30-50% of the book so I could come to a rough conclusion.

The time's long gone. I can't remember the last time I picked up a book and enjoyed the fun of reading. And do I have to live with that?

Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

--- Andy, the Shawshank Redemption

OM-Finance Interface

2011-09-17T23:11:00.000+08:00

前一段被热炒的中国概念股在美国和香港被做空的消息，如果把Sino-forest看成这轮beta creating的loss leader，这个是不是也能归为OM-finance interface的研究问题

Black Swan...

2011-09-06T16:13:00.001+08:00

EUR and CHF pegged.. And I watched EUR/USD jumped from 1.41 to nearly 1.43 in a few seconds. Luckily, I made a few quick bucks from the extreme volatility instead of being killed.

又送别两个朋友告别香港

2011-08-31T20:29:00.000+08:00

送元二使安西

王维

渭城朝雨浥轻尘，客舍青青柳色新。
劝君更尽一杯酒，西出阳关无故人。

织月6年古酒

2011-06-19T21:02:00.001+08:00

25度，除了传统的清酒的体验，味道更浓郁，略有蜂蜜和花香的感觉。

This is the spark that is going to kill Apple

2011-05-06T10:03:00.002+08:00

http://www.readwriteweb.com/enterprise/2011/05/build-cross-platform-widgets-i.php

Silver/Gold Ratio in 3 Days

2011-05-05T08:00:00.001+08:00

Drop from 0.0316 to 0.026. Silver might have a short rebound after breaking the 40 support. It is right to take some profit and to reduce the bet against silver for the moment.

TN: 2002 Bond St. Eden

2011-05-04T21:28:00.000+08:00

What a wine! Fruity upon the open, but on palate, you can feel something underneath. After one hour aeration, it begins to open up. The fruitiness is now companied with chocolate, plum. Another hour later, the wine becomes more spicy. Sweet and chewy. Meaty with emerging hint of coffee. Very long finish. It's a pity we finish it just two hours after decanting. It may show new flavors with more aeration. Can be enjoyed now but not fully developed. Should lay down for another 3-5 years.

On Silver

2011-05-04T08:21:00.001+08:00

I am shorting silver, in a middle-term. A safer way may be to long the gold/silver ratio. That is, in another sense, to bet the role of silver as a hedge against inflation is relatively overvalued.

City lights

2011-03-29T21:34:00.000+08:00

Taken on a bridge over Shatin River.

Doodle Jump

2011-02-15T17:14:00.000+08:00

Doodle Jump其实就是反映了一个人类的本性，老老实实的可以一节一节往上爬，但正是由于在途中经常出现不同的诱惑，甚至同时有多个，玩者举棋不定，难以取舍，反而最终坠落。这也正是从Behavioral的角度解释为什么即便是个体优化，决策集增大表现不一定也是递增。

Mind mapping software

2011-02-08T21:09:00.000+08:00

偶然在chrome store看到Mind Meister，回溯回去发现mind mapping软件系列，不少都是开源的。装了一个Freeplane，还不错，使用起来比较简单，将来写paper可以方便一点，也便于和collaborator之间交流。

Chrome apps

2011-02-07T21:19:00.000+08:00

It's good. Very handy tools for online browsing. However, Google needs to redesign the Chrome layout a little bit.

单口相声-幸福童年

2011-02-06T23:43:00.000+08:00

http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/v6vKzxvsctg/

段子包袱抖得挺好，但线索有点乱。方清平的功底还是略显不足，如果换杨议（杨少华五子）说应该也不错，整段有些内容杨少华说起来会更出彩，不过不是全部都适合他的风格。

2006 Chalis La Forest V. Dauvissat

2011-01-16T13:22:00.001+08:00

My first bottle of the famous Chablis wine. Really not my type of wine. Great acidity and a long finish. But on palate, there are just undetectable hints of mineral, apple and honey. Maybe too early to open or aeration can help? Will try it next time.

2nd bottle: I opened the bottle and laid it for two days. The aeration does improve it a lot. The acidity fades away and the wine shows more balanced sweetness. Maybe someone may say it has lost its character. But it's more of my wine now.

Dr. Strangelove

2011-01-08T19:55:00.000+08:00

An incredible movie.

The future of iPad (and Apple?)

2011-01-08T12:31:00.000+08:00

Another article here.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/technology/personaltech/03tablet.html?ref=technology

For Apple, like Tomjanovich said after Rockets won the 1995 NBA title, there have been "nonbelievers all along the way." The bears summoned power for every opportunity but only have failed miserably each time (I mean long-time bear, not those quick profit takers). So people may wonder, is this prediction just the beginning of another false alarm?

It may or may not.

I was pessimistic on iPad before its release, but changed my mind when I owned one myself. However, whether a product is successful or unsuccessful does not change the nature the game. In my opinion, either the cost or the technology can help latecomers overtake Apple. Cost advantage did not help them in the battle with iPod, iPhone, then how can it be effective in the iPad battle? As for the technology stuff, I think it's a pretty efficient market, and Apple may even have bigger change for new technology promotion given its dominant market power.

The key is pointed out in the last part of the article, "you need developers."

I have written a paper on the compatibility competition in network market, and I think the same logic applies to iPad, and to the future of Apple. It wouldn't be long for us to see a platform which can seamlessly put application for all tablets which would certainly undermine Apple's "social network" advantage. And I view that as the turning point and the catalyst necessary for me to short AAPL.

老"朋友"

2011-01-07T22:47:00.000+08:00

今天刚看了Black Swan，一部表演的有点做作，情节略显单调的电影，然后去搜这类有点神经质的电影，意外找到了一部看过之后印象很深刻但一直没能再看到的电影，Misery。

根据Stephen King的小说改编的电影，里面Kathy Bates饰演的大妈极具压迫感和统治力，堪称神经质型杀手的典范。

Sunset boulevard

2011-01-05T22:29:00.002+08:00

A famous old movie, directed by famous Billy Wilder. A plain story with a fantastic ending.

AFI's 100 Years…100 Movie Quotes

2010-11-30T17:10:00.000+08:00

so familiar. simply listing them here actually doesn't make any sense. only after you watch the movie, know the plot and the actor/actress, you can truly understand them.

1. "Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn." Rhett Butler Gone with the Wind

2. "I'm going to make him an offer he can't refuse." Don Vito Corleone The Godfather

10. "You talkin' to me?" Travis Bickle Taxi Driver

13. "Love means never having to say you're sorry." Jennifer Cavilleri Barrett Love Story

17. "Rosebud." Charles Foster Kane Citizen Kane

21. "A census taker once tried to test me. I ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti." Hannibal Lecter The Silence of the Lambs

22. "Bond. James Bond." James Bond Dr. No[7]

23. "There's no place like home." Dorothy Gale The Wizard of Oz

25. "Show me the money!" Rod Tidwell Jerry Maguire

31. "After all, tomorrow is another day!" Scarlett O'Hara Gone with the Wind

37. "I'll be back." The Terminator The Terminator

40. "Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." Forrest Gump Forrest Gump

41. "We rob banks." Clyde Barrow Bonnie and Clyde

49. "It's alive! It's alive!" Henry Frankenstein Frankenstein

50. "Houston, we have a problem." Jim Lovell Apollo 13

55. "La-dee-da, la-dee-da." Annie Hall Annie Hall

57. "Greed, for lack of a better word, is good." Gordon Gekko Wall Street

58. "Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer." Michael Corleone The Godfather Part II

59. "As God is my witness, I'll never be hungry again." Scarlett O'Hara Gone with the Wind

85. "My precious." Gollum The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

94. "I feel the need—the need for speed!" Lt. Pete "Maverick" Mitchell and Lt. Nick "Goose" Bradshaw Top Gun

95. "Carpe diem. Seize the day, boys. Make your lives extraordinary." John Keating Dead Poets Society

Salame

2010-11-04T21:37:00.002+08:00

超市打折，半价买了Antica Macelleria Falorni的两条Salame：Salame di cinghiale（野公猪）和Salame di cinta senese brada（Cinta senese是Tuscany特有的一种猪品种）

折扣价后基本和本地售价一样。在我试过的salame当中，Falorni的算是非常不错的，不是像某些大批量生产的salame那样用咸味或者香料去麻痹你的味觉，而能感受到浓浓的肉味，加上脂肪，呈现出甘甜的味道，有嚼劲，回味十足。配上红酒，面包，以及一些酸黄瓜，足矣。

Amadeus

2010-10-21T10:17:00.000+08:00

一部出色的影片，有一点歌剧风格，由Milos Forman执导 (也是飞越疯人院的导演)。

一部好电影总是综合了很多因素，但也会有一个让人印象最深刻的风格---让画面说话，比如Godfather，James Cameron，张艺谋；让情节说话，比如Chris Nolan，Hitchcock，Quentin Tarantino，黑泽明；让演员说话，比如Woody Allen，The Shawshank Redemption。而Amadeus就是一部用音乐说话的电影。

Benoît Mandelbrot, Novel Mathematician, Dies at 85

2010-10-17T08:54:00.001+08:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/us/17mandelbrot.html

"Instead of rigorously proving his insights in each field, he said he preferred to 'stimulate the field by making bold and crazy conjectures' — and then move on before his claims had been verified."

Wall street: money never sleeps

2010-10-03T11:52:00.000+08:00

Calcium in the brain, definitely calcium in the brain

Movies to watch

2010-09-28T14:14:00.000+08:00

Try to find time to watch the following movies:

Inside Job
Wall Street: Money Never sleeps
Toy Story 3
Mission London
Animal Kingdom
Despicable Me
Shutter Island
The Town

Inception

2010-08-17T12:57:00.000+08:00

Have watched it some time ago but haven't got time to write a review. So now I finish it before I forget.

First of all, I like the movie. The story is catching, which reminds me of the works of Hitchcock. If we describe a movie as a building, then there is no structural problem. Every part is closely related and presented in an elegant way.

But there is one thing I feel unsatisfied, probably just my personal taste. Like the dream it discusses, the movie lacks details. Not the plot details I am talking about, but some delicacy I feel missing. I refer to another two my favorite movies, Godfather and Seven Samurai. These are two movies I can appreciate every day. There are always some delicacies that I can amplify and enjoy. However, I do not have the feeling that I should watch Inception for a second time. Still using the building analog, Inception is like a modern skyscraper. Magnificent, fully functional, but not enjoyable. Maybe I shouldn't complain too much, and this is just Nolan style.

A serious and nice movie, anyway.

A nice article on virtual screening application to drug design

2010-08-17T12:30:00.000+08:00

http://www.nature.com/nrd/journal/v9/n4/full/nrd3139.html

I am not an expert, but most of the points in this article do no require expertise to understand. As far as I know, the author does have a point. For example, the advancement of MD simulation is not just a matter of computation power. It requires a deeper understanding of the behind-the-scene mechanism.

Going a little deeper, I have been thinking the herbal medicines. Why can we find cures from those herbs? Can we find some intrinsic and more traceable connections other than philosophical and ecological explanations? I am not sure if there is an answer to this question, but if there is one, that may be the ultimate solution to drug design problem.

Chloe

2010-07-30T09:49:00.000+08:00

A typical Egoyan movie. Not bad, but I feel there is sth lacked.

大水冲了龙王庙

2010-07-28T19:06:00.000+08:00

来自武汉的一幅图片

Inception

2010-07-14T19:26:00.000+08:00

还没有去看，不过听起来有点像一部日本动画品-红辣椒(Paprika)。联想Matrix和押井守的攻壳机动队的联系，看来美国下一部Sci-fi还有可能从日本动画片中提取灵感。

Avandia is in trouble

2010-07-13T16:08:00.000+08:00

国内名字叫文迪雅，是常用的治疗2型糖尿病的药品。详情如下

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/health/policy/13avandia.html

二泉映月

2010-07-13T08:37:00.000+08:00

作为二胡名曲，二泉映月版本众多，包括阿炳的原奏，以及随后众多的改良版本。

我所体会的二泉映月的精髓，在于其婉转中不乏抑扬顿挫，不拘泥于形式，虽缺乏像小提琴一样的变化和复杂性，但别有一番韵味。给人的感觉好像门德尔松小提琴协奏曲的华彩部分，抑或Itzahk Perlman演奏的辛德勒名单的主题曲。

然而youtube上面的诸多版本，有过分修饰的成分，虽然似乎技巧上有所提高，但却没有了其中的意境。二泉映月好比Ratatouille中Remy为Anton Ego做准备的家常菜，只有个中人能体会滋味，若只是片面追求外在形式，则有误入歧途之嫌。

黄安源的版本是我最喜欢的，不在于他使用的象牙二胡，而是其中的意味。

换帅如儿戏

2010-07-12T18:39:00.001+08:00

毕某人的"豪言壮语"言犹在耳，只是计划赶不上变化，

山钢集团董事会决定，委派毕志超任济钢董事长，不再担任副总经理职务；蔡漳平兼任济钢董事、副董事长，推荐蔡漳平为总经理人选（兼）

蔡某人上任真是曲径通幽，而毕某人的李代桃僵也很配合，什么扭亏为盈，效益为先，挂羊头卖狗肉的本质在这种拙劣的政治伎俩面前再直白不过。

Dirty politics屡见不鲜，当年牛群冯巩的小偷公司里面的一副对联再合适不过：

上联：说你行你就行不行也行
下联：说不行就不行行也不行
横批：不服不行

我改一下横批：不查不行

石斛考

2010-07-12T18:24:00.000+08:00

圆圆的给了两盒石斛，由此说开去。

石斛，属于兰科，英文名是Dendorbium，可以入药，在中医典籍中有所记载，也有不少引用梅先生当年引用石斛茶润嗓的典故，其有效成分可能为石斛多糖，石斛碱。

一般药房卖的不是鲜石斛，而是石斛干，这是把石斛的茎经过几道工序烘干而成，颜色金黄，而根据石斛品种的不同，价格差别也较大，按克论，从几元钱到几十元钱不等，最高的等级通常称作铁皮石斛，然而野生铁皮石斛据说基本已经绝迹，属于濒危物种，而近些年随着石斛热的兴起，有不少人开始尝试人工养殖，大部分集中于浙江，云南，广西等地。

培育石斛可能和培育兰花相似，不过细节或许略有差别，有研究表明石斛多糖的含量在嫩茎最多，叶次之，根与老茎最差。石斛产品化渠道众多，可以做成中成药，或者做成传统的干货，或者鲜卖，而除了茎部，石斛叶，石斛花也可以利用，做成类似石斛花茶这样的产品。

石斛现在的主要问题是缺乏标准化，传统的类似茶叶以及其他传统药材的分销体系难以保证品质，而其具体药效和其有效成分之间的联系也未知是否有严格的临床验证，整个市场鱼目混杂，将其宣传成奢侈品更是掩盖了石斛作为一种中草药的功效。

石斛完全可以两条腿走路，一方面是进行类似GNC这样的精萃，或者做成类似999这样的中成药，严格标注有效成分，添加其他营养成分，或者作为辅助成分，这样的方法易于工业化，也可以避免石斛品种，外观等引起的疑惑。

而另一条路则是继续进行简单加工后出售干货或者鲜货，这是由中国的中医以及传统食疗特点决定的，这个市场不会消亡，但涉及诸多其他环节，较为繁琐，但经过包装，有可能实现较高的附加值，可以一试。

现在不少大的集团已经开始注意类似石斛这样的中草药原材料的开发，比如上海光明集团在云南西双版纳勐海县投资了生产基地，而浙江一个个人铁皮石斛培育者李小香在成功后也得到了香港天厨集团注资成立了天厨莲花生物公司。

Inception is coming

2010-07-12T10:28:00.001+08:00

Going to watch it at iSquare on Aug 3.

Organic fertilizer

2010-06-17T14:50:00.000+08:00

可以利用苍蝇制造有机肥料，苍蝇繁殖迅速，活动范围大，可以很好的弥补现有有机肥料制造的缺点。

期待科特迪瓦

2010-06-15T12:55:00.000+08:00

迄今为止亮相的非洲球队乏善可陈，没有战术，没有整体。科特迪瓦虽然之前的表现也不好，但球员基础很好，希望埃里克森能在短时间内给这支球队带来点东西，为非洲球队争光。

Charadium

2010-06-11T20:34:00.000+08:00

http://charadium.com/

An amazing game for iPhone and iPod Touch. 不玩Charadium，不知道自己的词汇量小...

An espresso machine for tea

2010-06-08T13:19:00.000+08:00

I got the same idea when I was checking the Nespresso series. It's a little bit weird but I think it gets its potential in China. However, it seems someone has already got the same idea. My feeling is there should be some big differences. Will think it over later.

A very good article on multitasking

2010-06-07T13:03:00.003+08:00

I find it very relevant.

http://diigo.com/0b9je

De Koninck Gusto 1833 Golden Blond

2010-06-06T13:31:00.000+08:00

In the middel of the ale and the lager, but not excel in either dimension. An ordinary blond ale.

D8 Conference

2010-06-03T09:58:00.002+08:00

http://d8.allthingsd.com/

Trappist Rochefort 8

2010-05-30T22:08:00.000+08:00

Belgian ale. Dark brown in the cup. Terrific foam. Fruity and chocolate aroma. The foam is sweet while the beer is more malty. Overall, a well balanced beer.

1996 Château Tirecul La Gravière Cuvée Madame

2010-05-25T20:54:00.000+08:00

Dark golden color. Honey, acid, mineral and a little spicy. Well balanced.

Robin Hood

2010-05-23T17:34:00.000+08:00

Not a blockbuster like Black Knight, but not a disappointment either.

Trying out Diigo

2010-05-22T19:13:00.000+08:00

Seems to be an interesting tool and can replace delicious. Check out the link below:

http://diigo.com/0b185

What would be announced at Apple WWDC 2010?

2010-05-22T11:44:00.000+08:00

iPhone III is in sight. What else can be expected?

AAPL performance (using closing prices) during the WWDC for past five years:

2005 Jun 6-10 37.92-35.81 -5.6%
2006 Aug 7-11 67.21-63.65 -5.3%
2007 Jun 11-15 120.19-120.50 +0.26%
2008 Jun 9-13 175.75-172.37 -1.9%
2009 Jun 8-12 143.85-136.97 -4.8%

Will Diablo III be a big disappointment?

2010-05-21T13:05:00.000+08:00

Warcraft, Starcraft, and Diablo are no doubt the big three for Blizzard. However, the latter two now live in the shadow of WoW since it has become the indisputable profit engine for the game developer. Now, finally, the players are welcoming the sequels, SC II and Diablo III.

I like SC II though it's definitely not going to replace the old version. The animation is cool and I believe Blizzard is going to keep what has been proved to be the success recipes for old SC. However, I also believe there will be negative things, and the fun from old SC is not upgraded simply by a cooler animation.

But for Diablo III, what I get is disappointment. I haven't seen anything to be excited about. It has a different story line but that's not enough. Maybe I am a little bit too harsh and honestly, I don't have very concrete ideas about what should be added. But what I can say now is from the trailers, the game does not give me that feeling.

Anyway, it's good to try. SC and Diablo are classics, and that's not about to change.

My first port

2010-05-20T12:26:00.000+08:00

Graham's 2003 Vintage Port. Too sweet for me. Stop me from feeling other layers of the wine. Not my style.

旧片重温

2010-05-13T15:10:00.001+08:00

Le Comte de Monte Cristo 1998 starred by Gerard Depardieu.

悲惨世界连环画

2010-05-12T15:34:00.000+08:00

张定华创作的插图，非常有表现力，他还创作过罗曼罗兰的约翰克里斯多夫的连环画。

http://comic.tom.com/vw/2101.html

2005 Sine Qua Non Atlantis Fe2O3 1b

2010-05-09T23:00:00.001+08:00

My first SQN wine. Didn't decant it but I can sense its greatness upon opening. The wine has it all, and shows the delicate presentation of every layer in its complex flavor. I can feel sweet and silky tannin, as well as the typical pepper for a syrah wine. Also, there is some fruity hint which demonstrates the young and easy-going side of this wine. Really a master piece for the wine maker. I will give it 19/20 (leave some room for more surprise from SQN).

西门庆和弗洛伊德

2010-05-05T13:32:00.001+08:00

最近，网上热炒的一条消息是山东安徽多地争当西门庆故里，开发金瓶梅经济。这里，先放下这背后的刻意炒作，眼球经济，以及西门庆本人的历史价值不谈，用唐太宗的话说，以人为鉴，可以知得失。

西门庆是本我，众生为自我，而中国传统则推崇超我，如此一来，便形成了一个两头不讨好的人格分裂，一方面被超我与自我的巨大差距所苦恼，一方面与本我和自我间备受煎熬。概而言之，超我再非理想，而成为了被人利用的工具。一个简简单单的西门庆，也成为了超我和本我两方角力的对象。

这种弗洛伊德式的社会人格分裂放之四海而皆准，只是中国社会尤为严重，西门庆早已灰飞烟灭，但众人心中的西门庆又在哪里？

We Rule

2010-05-03T14:37:00.000+08:00

http://werule.ngmoco.com/

An interesting SN game developed by famous mobile game developer ngmoco:).

RPG+Movie?

2010-05-01T11:29:00.002+08:00

http://www.ninokuni.jp/

Studio Ghibli, the famous Japanese animatior, is cooperating with Level 5, a Japanese game developer, to produce a RPG game with fantastic pictures. This is interesting. Hollywood has already been quite into this movie+game mode.

I like Ghibli's past works. It would be great if they can move all their movies online to make a cloud-like virtual world.

I like this quote

2010-04-28T18:19:00.000+08:00

In his review for the Hollywood Reporter, Frank Scheck wrote, "it may finally be time to let Shrek and Fiona live happily ever after."

Frankly, I have lost much of my confidence in Dreamworks. From the Shrek case, it gives out a mercenary image to the public.

How to train your dragon (HTYD) sequel

2010-04-28T18:11:00.000+08:00

Not surprisingly, Dreamworks is going to roll out a sequel to the new "blockbuster". But whether it can be successful is highly suspicious.

First, HTYD's success cannot contribute to the movie itself alone. There are many exogenous factors, such as release time, movie review, that all together result its success. The sequel may not be able to replicate those factors.

Second, Dreamworks is different from Disney. Disney movies are more traditional style, and the high quality is consistent. Dreamworks is more maverick, and unpredictable. It can produce witty Shrek I and II, while can also produce rubbish Shrek III and Monsters vs Aliens. There is no guarantee of the quality. Surely there can be upside surprise, but downside disappointment more likely.

HTYD is not as good as its box office seems to be. Its success may be totally accidental and not replicable. Given past experience, there is high probability Dreamworks will screw up its sequel again.

从生榴莲想到的

2010-04-26T22:46:00.001+08:00

一不小心，从超市买了一个还没熟的榴莲，虽然果味清香，别有一番风味，可惜的是果肉还很木质化，不得已，包上报纸继续让榴莲"被熟透"。

晚上，伴随着弥漫的诡异的味道，思绪如榴莲般缥缈。

第一自然是为何我会买了一个未熟的榴莲，这是思维惯性，在超市买榴莲基本不用自己挑，买的都是开包的，而若是开包的则默认是已经熟的，所以当时只注意了果肉的颜色而未注意到软硬，脱壳与否等环节。由此想到的是经济学里面的general equilibrium理论，以及金融市场里面的有效市场假说，所有的理论都依赖于市场参与者的信息集，而这一点正是社会多样奇妙之处。从另一个方面说，则是黑天鹅理论，在一个小概率事件下面隐藏的是与次贷危机同类的机理，只是并不是每一个黑天鹅都可以像榴莲放熟，但几乎每一个黑天鹅又都蕴藏着机会，比如生榴莲，就带来了我对于榴莲的进一步认识。

生榴莲带来的第二个层面的思考主要是生物层面的，生榴莲到熟榴莲所产生的变化非常奇妙，而非简单的数学模型可以描述，所谓生生相息，而又生生相克，榴莲树，果肉，内壳，外壳构成了一个完整的生态系统。小而言之，这类技术完全可以用在生物农业，物流保鲜，包括生物医学领域，大而言之，在生态环境危机的今天，为何不从物理方法转向生物方法，找到解决之法。正如当年对于中医的去医存药，伴随着现在日新月异的生物技术，能否制造出更为精细的黑盒子？

Black swans are rare, but black-swan hunters are abundant

2010-04-24T12:25:00.000+08:00

Just read an article on thestreet.com on AAPL.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10731991/2/why-apple-gets-a-sell-rating.html

I don't want to criticize the report itself, since two pages are definitely not enough. Many of the analyst's points can be found groundless, but I suppose that they will be much refined in a more complete report.

Of course, AAPL is on the run now, and given its fabulous performance in the past years, such a bearish call is dismissed and slammed. It's not like the Enron case, AAPL should be able to have solid sales support, and that's more transparent than Enron.

Mr. Bulkey is a black swan hunter. Of course, he only says AAPL is not as good as investors think it to be. The whole analysis is problematic, but a black swan is still possible. That's the interesting part of financial world. The reasoning is always decoupled from the result.

Citibank Hong Kong e-banking

2010-04-23T21:19:00.001+08:00

I have accounts with four banks in HK: Citi, HSBC, Hangseng and BoC. Citi has the best customer service, but also gets the worst online banking system.

The whole system seems a disaster to me. The speed is slow, and the display of information is usually messy and not clear. It does not provide a convenient interface for investment services either. The security trading through Citi e-banking is very much like a torture. On this metric, BoC and Hangseng stand out as leaders.

Hope Citi would improve its system soon.

Reading time

2010-04-22T22:24:00.000+08:00

Bloomberg mentioned five books on the crisis, among which I find some familiar names.
I like his The Liar's Poker and Moneyball.
The author of When Genius Failed.
13, a very special number.
This topic is toooooold. Let's see if this book can talk sth new.

As an insider, Mr. Paulson must feel it's a responsibility to give a personal account of the story.

Will find some time to read these books and post the detailed reviews later. Stay tuned.

What a way to finish the ogre

2010-04-22T21:18:00.000+08:00

Read an article from Bloomberg on the latest Shrek movie - Shrek: Forever After (probably the last one). Not surprisingly, the review is not good. I have watched the trailer. What disappointed me most is that now, not only the plot, also the picture quality become third-class. No doubt that the 3-D wave gives Shrek a final push.

Farewell, Shrek.

榴莲比较

2010-04-22T17:33:00.000+08:00

算不上一个狂热的榴莲爱好者，但就我品尝过的两种来说，金枕头远远胜过青尼，青尼虽然有更清香的果味，金枕头的口感更为复杂，质地绵密，新开的果肉感觉类似香蕉，带有苹果，奶油，巧克力，以及酒味。放一段时间后，酒味和奶油味更重。

A handy tool

2010-04-22T09:52:00.002+08:00

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?hp

希望这家公司永远在

2010-04-20T10:08:00.001+08:00

http://www.amazon.co.jp/日本でいちばん大切にしたい会社-坂本-光司/dp/4860632486/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1271729419&sr=1-1

这本书反映了典型的日本企业文化，不过作者所做的推理以及结论不够严谨，在这点上，我赞同Milton Friedman对于Business ethics的看法：Only human has ethics.

PS: 书中提到的甜品店柳月很吸引人，什么时候去日本可以尝试一下。

2003 Chateau Montrose

2010-04-20T10:01:00.000+08:00

Much to my disappointment. Acidy, tannic, earthy and little hint of chocolate. It's not like a classic Bordeaux, much closer to Burgundy or Rhone in my opinion. Maybe too early to make its call or perhaps decanting can do the trick.

A book on the GS and Paulson case

2010-04-19T10:08:00.000+08:00

The greatest trade ever by Gregory Zuckerman.

Every crisis not only generates opportunities, also nourishes great works. Haven't got time to read it yet. It's written by a WSJ reporter, and should be a serious work.

PS: I am trying out Amazon associates.

How to train your dragon

2010-04-18T19:28:00.001+08:00

Not bad, but not as good as Shrek.

Cramer's point

2010-04-17T10:12:00.002+08:00

I am not an insider and haven't read the complaint yet. But potential information distortion or asymmetry and the definition of information should be the key of this case. Otherwise, Cramer made the point:

A Case of Arrogance

Cramer took a few moments to sum up today's Goldman news by saying that there's a line like between illegal, and just plain stupid. He said that while he's been pro-prosecution in his career for years, based on what he's seen so far, the government's case against Goldman is weak. at best.

Cramer explained that Goldman doesn't appear to have done anything wrong. When a hedge fund client came to them asking for an investment tool to play the housing market in 2007, Goldman did what it was supposed to: It hired an outside firm to provide the due diligence. He said the resulting prospectus on the new investment tool seemed to be very thorough and transparent.

So Cramer wondered whether it was illegal for Goldman to then sell this new product, or just stupid for anyone to buy it. He said he's not sure, but he does know that people made money hand over fist before the market ultimately collapsed.

Cramer said he's all in favor of financial reforms, and he likes a vigilant prosecution, but not an over-zealous one. He said at first glance Goldman appears to be arrogant, and arrogance is not illegal.

GS is plummeting

2010-04-16T23:19:00.000+08:00

Black swan.

Freud's economics

2010-04-16T09:59:00.003+08:00

If a consumer has a Freud three-tier consciousness, so should the economy.

Bordeaux 09 En Primeur

2010-04-13T09:31:00.003+08:00

2009 seems a year not shy to 2005. But given current mania in the wine market, the price is already quite out of reach. Besides the most sought-after Lafite, keep an eye on Marguax, Leoville Lascases and Cos d'Estournel.

Palm is up for sale

2010-04-12T12:44:00.001+08:00

A good progress

2010-04-11T15:59:00.001+08:00

MS paper is in sight...

Microsoft goes to Autos

2010-04-08T09:34:00.001+08:00

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20001491-54.html

http://www.businessweek.com/idg/2010-03-31/microsoft-ford-team-on-electric-car-software.html

一个农业品牌化的例子

2010-04-08T09:08:00.001+08:00

姜莱头道菜

http://www.dxyfood.com/

济钢悖论

2010-04-07T21:01:00.003+08:00

http://business.sohu.com/20100330/n271205168.shtml

老实说，这类国企换帅无甚稀奇，不管你干的好坏与否，都没有自主权，然而让人可发一笑的是新任董事长毕志超的逻辑，除了例行公事一般的先指桑骂槐一番以外，他说到"希望全体干部振奋精神，全力以赴扭转生产经营被动局面，3月份要扭亏，4月份要完成任务"。

这几句话颇有学问，大概毕董事长以为企业如足球，换帅如换刀，必然会有三把火。我还真不太明白，难道换个董事长是能降低成本还是凭空创造出新的需求？如果不会对基本形势改变的话换人又有何用，难不成本来3月份就是要扭亏，4月份本来就不存在完不成任务一说？如此一来那免不了得到一个毕董事长撒谎不脸红，牛皮吹破天或者智商有问题的结论。

细想不然，此中必有学问，山钢的几个官僚趁此机会换人，必然是有暗中交易或者承诺，如此一来，这次换人也就变成了一次肮脏的政治交易，依靠政治手段和牺牲政府的信用来为小团体利益服务，其目的无非是谋取政绩，并为山钢系及其靠山谋求经济资本，如此龌龊的组织结构，将来必出大问题。

The final push of 3-D tech

2010-03-18T10:30:00.004+08:00

"Madness is like gravity. All you need is a little push."

- Joker, "The Dark Knight"

The question is: who gives the 3-D tech the final push?

There is no doubt that 2009 is the year of 3-D. We have seen a wave of 3-D movies, including the blockbusters "UP" and "Avatar". Also, electronics manufacturers are on a rush to roll out their 3-D TV. 2010 would be another go-go year. The WC will give 3-D TV a boost.

One thing we need to make clear at first: 3-D tech is not something new. It has been there for years. But even today, the 3-D tech is still quite premature, or can be called "pseudo" 3-D. So it seems that the technology is not the major drive behind current 3-D mania. Then what is it?

A popular theory is new technology or innovation usually would display a hump-shaped curve in the market. It also can be understood as a variation of the more general Elliot wave. In general, like what Jim Rogers said, people always swing between panic and hysteria.

For 3-D tech, maybe we just see the first peak coming.

Local beer in Hong Kong

2010-03-16T09:15:00.003+08:00

I suddenly get this question in my mind: why I haven't seen any locally brewed beer in HK? After googling, I find that there is indeed one local brewery:

http://intransit.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/locally-brewed-beer-in-hong-kong/

Though without any concreted numbers, I am sure beer consumption is high in HK, per capita. Only speaking of this, it seems to make perfect sense to run a business on this. However, the difficulty for a local brewery in HK may come from everywhere:

1. Cost is high. It may not be economically sound to open a brewery at a place with high land rent and labor cost.

2. Raw materials. Let alone hops and yeast. The other two key materials, barley and water, are not easy to find in HK. If it relies on import, the attractiveness would be reduced.

3. Market competition. HK is a free market. Importers provide consumers here with hundreds of choices, at zero tax. A beer has to excel in one of the dimensions like brand image, cost or taste, to claim its own share in the competitive market.

Anyway, I do see a chance here. There are answers to all the questions above. And the most important, is a passion for beer.

The bright future of computational biology

2010-03-14T13:11:00.003+08:00

I have been looking into computational biology for some time, in particular, the molecular dynamics part. One sure application is the drug design. Successful cases have been reported (see J. Andrew McCammon's papers). That's probably also the reason why D.E. Shaw is so devoted into this.

What happens behind the scene is that computational biology has totally changed the way of drug discovery/design. From traditional target drug test, we has made the drug business a search, like Google did for Internet, in plain words, 筛沙. With this change, we are able to make use of all computational resources on this planet and fundamentally accelerate the process.

If we think a little bit wider, we may see the application goes far beyond drug business. Any traditional business may have its own chance to be reshaped. For example, in wine business, both oenology and viticulture can be revisited. Of course, further homework needs to be done to see whether such changes make perfect sense, both technically and economically.

What I say here may not go real overnight, but in 5-10 years time, we have a great chance to see the explosion of such revolutions. Like what Monsanto did to what we eat, finally, we, human being, will be nothing but a combination of naked numbers.

Riedenburger

2010-03-13T20:23:00.001+08:00

historisches Emmer Bier. Creamy, fruity. Good

Playing with beamer

2010-03-13T10:06:00.000+08:00

a lot of fun

The curious case of Benjamin Button

2010-03-08T08:11:00.000+08:00

Feels like Forrest Gump. A good movie.

"When it comes to the end, you have to let go."

脆皮金桔

2010-02-22T16:36:00.001+08:00

口感有点像柚子加了蜂蜜，又有橘皮的清凉，很好吃。主要产于广西的阳朔，灵川和融安三地，有机会去考察一下投资机会。

电解水器

2010-02-22T15:30:00.003+08:00

所谓弱碱性，小分子团，极软水，在我看来，都是相关的，通过一个电解槽就可实现，加上其他液晶面板，控制芯片等，一个成本也就在几百块，而价格呢，香港一个落后的Panasonic TK7585官方价8880HKD，日本稍微好点，最新的TK8051P大概在4000RMB左右，而落后的美国人民能享受到的大概也在1w-2wRMB左右.

联想前一段的所谓电解水杯，里面加了点能让水呈弱碱性的矿物质之类的东西，就能卖上千元，此类伎俩估计还会出现，看来要骗人高中生就足够了。

A few movies to keep an eye on

2010-02-21T14:52:00.003+08:00

1. Toy Story 3:

Though Pixar never let me down before, I really doubt what they can make out of the tooold Toy Story.

2. Alice in Wonderland:

If well made, I think it would be a blockbuster. But I don't trust Tim Burton. They should pick a British director.

3. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps:

Old memory. The new Gordon Gekko's protege is Shia Lebeouf. But I am not expecting much, especially after watching the terrible trailers.

4. Chloe:

Should be a typical Atom Egoyan film. Starred by Liam Neeson and Amanda Seyfried.

5. The Ghost Writer:

Polanski's film. Not bad rating on IMDB.

6. Shutter Island:

I like Leonardo di Caprio now. This kid is now producing very serious performance. I would like to see what he can do in the new thriller.

四十年茅台

2010-02-20T18:01:00.003+08:00

除夕之夜，和家人，老婆一家人-to-be共庆新年，同饮家藏四十年茅台，纠正了贵州茅台酒厂给我留下的二十年以上茅台就是猫尿味的错误认识。家藏佳酿酒香浓郁，却又含蓄似犹抱琵琶，回味如蜂蜜般润滑，朦胧间有淡淡果香，只是两小杯就等于我回家机票，让人感慨此酒如中国楼价，只应天上有。

好在俺家还有几瓶，我准备送去实验室，和法国红酒一样做严谨的科学分析，然后生产山寨版，以解众多中国酒鬼为茅台猫尿厂所害之苦。

收支平衡

2010-02-20T17:56:00.002+08:00

回家一趟，加上机票，只亏了2千现大洋，这正是千金散尽还复来，为有源头活水来。

虎年打击

2010-02-20T17:47:00.001+08:00

祝大家牛运不再，糊里糊涂，总而言之，虎年来个虎头蛇尾，最后回头一看是一塌糊涂。

九千万

2010-02-20T17:13:00.005+08:00

近一年家里面在喝一种来自广西名为"九千万"的山泉水，宣称特点为超软水(按照每加仑悬浮物数量定义水的hardness，具体可参见美国国家标准)，小分子团(micro-clustering)，弱碱性(slightly alkaline)...

个人感觉口感不错，明显好于其他桶装饮用水，不过问题在于其价格，以其瓶装水为例，一瓶350ml的九千万价格在20元左右，按照一个成年人一天3L的饮水量，一个月的水费就是5千现大洋。

弱碱性水的研究现在还不完善，对于老年人钙质流失或许有所帮助，但至于其他宣称的特点尚有待验证。而即便好处多多诚如其宣称，在这个价位也有一个更好的选择: Water Ionizer。

这个东西起到的作用和九千万完全一样，好一点的Ionizer既是净水器，又可以产生超软水，小分子团，弱碱性等等，而价格一般在1-2w人民币。比如Tyent MMP-7070，处理水量大约在3600L，简单按照水量来说相当于1万瓶九千万。

老实说，我认为九千万的生产和自来水灌的桶装水无甚区别，肯定也是在那个地方用Ionizer自己制造"天然山泉水"，既然如此，何不把Ionizer抬回家，自产九千万。这就是典型的reference price effect，有了九千万，昂贵的Ionizer反而显得很便宜。严重怀疑九千万就是一托儿。

Bull is leaving

2010-02-05T10:02:00.002+08:00

在牛年即将过去的时候，我们果然看到牛市消退的迹象

Boys, catch up the leaving bull and slaughter it. You cannot make money in a bull or bear market and big money only turns out at the time when they switch.

为什么房价过高

2010-02-03T14:48:00.004+08:00

我不太理解过高的定义是什么，按照大家举出的种种数据的理解，可以定义中国房价过高，也可以定义其他国家房价过低。

无论在经济学里还是在政治学里面，只有均衡一个概念，而均衡在哪里？中国可以过五千年的封建社会，而美国的格林斯潘也可以在一夜之间从英雄堕落成罪人。

房价过高的问题不是政治问题，而是经济问题，无论是地方政府，还是中央政府，都没有想出能够替代过高房价以外的发展模式，而片面的打压，只不过陷入了一个经济周期的陷阱，没有了房价，照样还会有其他的疯狂产生。

每种现象都具有其合理性和局限性，而更重要是没有所谓的绝对合理，每一个合理都应当是在合理制度下达到的均衡，依靠不合理的策略达到所谓合理的均衡，弊大于利。

音乐

2010-02-03T14:22:00.003+08:00

在Bloomberg看到了一则有关朗朗的新闻，

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=a7bLa9pIgrek

我不是古典音乐专家，也对朗朗不甚了解，但是我也曾思索过一个与之相关的问题，中国千万的父母送其孩子去学习音乐，与八股科举无甚区别，正所谓：琴中自有黄金屋，琴中自有颜如玉。