鱼群的自组织行为(I)

记得当年在清华，听过一个涂小媛的seminar，大致是有关artificial fish的，不过她所阐述的整个系统，更集中在分布式的个体行为以及相关的CG表述上。我对这些没有什么兴趣，真正有意思的是和emerging order联系起来，前两天看一个有关predator的纪录片，里面的鱼群在遭受攻击的时候，会从原来有方向性的自然的聚集状态自动形成一个球形，撇开这里面的进化原理不谈，如何从分布式的个体形成有统一行动，进而产生非常有规则的emerging order就非常有趣（记得当年张长水在AI课上演示过一个herd behavior的动画，不过似乎也不涉及深层次的问题）。

最简单的例子是一个圆形的轨迹，如果根据牛顿定律，要形成这样一个轨迹，如果是一个二体系统，需要以一定的速度在轨迹上对称的互转，同理可以扩展到多体的原型轨迹。然而对于鱼群系统，完全是不同的概念，第一，不同于牛顿的场，在鱼群系统，更多的是邻近的鱼相互之间的作用，第二，不同于单个的稳定轨迹，鱼群系统具有很强的鲁棒性，可以根据不同的目的-觅食，逃脱捕猎等-采取不同的状态。这种状态是由进化而来，但也很大程度上和鱼群的这个系统的特征有关系。

几个有意思的问题：

1. 球状鱼群的形成需要怎样的个体行为，稳态是什么形式？

2. 从一个沿某个方向前进的群体，在受到捕食者刺激的情况下，从个体的反应逐渐形成群体的球状应对是怎样的过程？

3. 如何衡量球状鱼群的好处，是整体的函数优化还是一个鱼群个体互相博弈的结果？

4. 根据你的理论模型，还有什么可能的稳态，怎样破坏稳态，对人类捕鱼作业有什么用处？

Conquer the crash

by Robert Pretcher, Elliot Wave advocate.

Some investors may find the book a little overreacted and some may find the investment cycle in the book is too long for them to apply. But for mid- or long-term investment, what is discussed in this book is valuable and insightful.

Recommend.

Sayre's Law

一个应该出现在所有中国革命史书籍里，并从理论和实证角度加以讨论，供所有研究者深思的现象：

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayre's_Law

The Water Economy

http://judson.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/guest-column-like-water-for-money/

Harlan Estate 1996

A terrific wine. Floral and oaky flavor. Very smooth in the mouth.

桂河大桥 - The Bridge on the River Kwai

David Lean的masterpiece，非常有深意的探讨。

Spam fact

统计了一下gmail邮箱最近三天的垃圾邮件，分类如下：

药物 22

贷款 13（12封中文，1封英文）

工作 2

推销 8

杂类 2

Long or Short?

Although I am quite bullish on AAPL's WWDC, going to be held on June 8, the technical signal is not good. I am not sure whether the effect is already priced in. From past experience, I think I can still add my AAPL position before the WWDC but clear it before quarter earnings report.

Squanderville vs. Thriftville

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1053684/posts

Probably the most famous story from Warrent Buffet. Some regard Squanderville to be US and Thriftville to be China, etc. However, it's not that accurate. I have no time to write thoroughly on this right now. Will come back to it when free.

RFID

I think RFID is going to fundamentally change the world in the future. It provides a more precise locating service than GPS. Check this out:

http://www.nearfield.org/2009/04/iphone-rfid-nfc

How China makes money by disappointing the world

在当前经济危机下，中国的地位得到了极大的提升，尤其对于资源型国家，现在不得不唯中国马首是瞻，或许现在一些中国人会“感觉好极了”。

但这种好感觉太过昂贵。从经济角度，中国没有任何理由为别人买单，而从政治角度，这种金钱换来的政治回报不但不稳妥，而且风险太大，日本就是例子。

中国管理自己财富的方式一直备受诟病，现在来看却是难得的机会。当世界都必须倾听你的声音的时候，你就有了创造这个世界最宝贵的资源-风险-的机会，这一点从近期的commodities市场就可以看出来。所以对于中国而言，现在是为自己的主权财富增值的绝好机会，不要被英美投机者蛊惑，用一招”明修栈道，暗渡陈仓“，把他们全部搞垮。

这不会是中国独创，美国惯用此伎俩，而Rothschild家族的发家也源于类似的策略。很简单，当全世界把”希望“寄托于你的时候，买够足够的熊证，然后出来对大家说一句：”非常抱歉......“

套用NBA的经典台词：It's nothing personal, it's just business. 

A good way to short

is to buy short ETF.

ETF Name (Ticker)

Short QQQ (PSQ)
Short Dow 30 (DOG)
Short S&P 500 (SH)
Short MidCap400 (MYY)
Short SmallCap600 (SBB)
Short Russell2000 (RWM)
UltraShort QQQ (QID)
UltraShort Dow 30 (DXD)
UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS)
UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ)
UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD)
UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)

Short international :

Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM)
Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ)
UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)
UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV)
UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV)
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP)

UltraShort Style:

UltraShort Russell1000 Value (SJF)
UltraShort Russell1000 Growth (SFK)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Value (SJL)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth (SDK)
UltraShort Russell2000 Value (SJH)
UltraShort Russell2000 Growth (SKK)

UltraShort Sector:

UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
UltraShort Consumer Goods (SZK)
UltraShort Consumer Services (SCC)
UltraShort Financials (SKF)
UltraShort Health Care (RXD)
UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)
UltraShort Semiconductors (SSG)
UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
UltraShort Technology (REW)
UltraShort Utilities (SDP)

Buy Bonds, Guys

Turmoil at Sequoia China

没有永远的合伙人，只有永远的利益。

http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/05/15/is-sequoia-china-in-trouble/

PS: 这篇文章很快被TechCrunch删掉，在少数几个站点还有备份，

http://www.ajax-blog.com/is-sequoia-china-in-trouble.html

大致意思是张帆由于一些"unethical"行为，沈南鹏由于在一宗涉及凯雷的投资案中的行为，都有可能离开红杉，联系之前KPCB等的中国合伙人模式的失败，文章反思了这类特殊合伙人制度的缺陷。

PS2: The TC link above is available again. But some sensitive content has been modified.

Balance

Apple WWDC 2009

To be held from Jun 8-12. Tickets are sold out long time ago. Not sure whether Steve Jobs is going to present or not. Will it bring some breaking news again?

Buy Apple = Buy Corporate America?

老狗

Chanel, world's oldest dog, has her day

我们家贝贝也有19岁了，不知道能不能算是中国寿星狗。

一个杂种京巴，贝贝不如黑贝，金毛等训练有素，举止得体，但智商颇高，情商更是绝伦，纵是白内障也掩饰不住她眼中流露出的沧桑，待人接物八面玲珑，于人情世故了然于胸，常常在一个哈欠之间叹尽世间百态，在余光一扫中看透世态炎凉。

有狗如此，复何求哉！

It's just COOOOL

Nokia Aeon

無法松の一生

导演： 稲垣浩

主演： 三船敏郎

如果说三船敏郎的电影大多是有关英雄，无法松则是有关那些影片中无名的NPC；如果说三船敏郎的影片大多是有关英雄的辉煌前半生抑，无法松包括了全部；如果说三船敏郎的影片大多是有关一段特定时间一个特定场景的集合矛盾，无法松从头到尾展现了全部。

无法松自己是一个完整的故事，也补全了三船敏郎的电影世界。

酒

一天一杯酒而乐。每天吃饭省20，一周一瓶酒，好惬意。

Yao Ming = Willis Reed

Can Rox be the 1970 Knicks?

已经忘却的纪念

已经忘却的纪念

又是一年五四，平平淡淡，在香港，新的一代年轻人藉着五四锻炼自己的实用应聘技巧，而陈一谔亦以身作则，重演苏格拉底之死，是真是假，或许比无间道更复杂。猴子精算至此，如互吃dogshit创造GDP之经济学家，可发一叹。

何为五四？在我脑中，五四如现代版的春秋战国，三国，盛唐一般充满传奇和激情，逢此国难之时，旧有体系赖以生存之基础在坚船利炮前不堪一击，何去何从，莫衷一是，正是百花齐放的最好时机。重读五四时著作，会感慨光阴纵然如梭，思想却不亦随之进步。

然今人以何为五四？大概答案会是德先生，赛先生。民主自由，如耶稣基督，佛祖转世，普度众生，在此精神召唤下，五四应运而生，势如破竹，青年们一呼百应，破旧立新，由此奠定新中国基础。此为历史。历史者，数字及小说而已，供众人取乐，有根据的精神胜利法。

我未亲历五四，但从后读来，五四却绝非德赛两字，整个历史时期，完整真实的呈现要复杂的多。德赛非热血青年，而是狡猾有力的枭雄，在丑陋现实的斗争中，确立自己的地位，完成代价巨大的转变。三国中周瑜曾歌：“丈夫处世兮立功名，立功名兮慰平生”。德赛功成名就之后可披锦衣，金盆洗手，布平和幸福之道。

谬论！今人皆慕德赛之功名，却不见功名之路之残酷，不见千万山寨德赛横尸路上。五四之功，不在德，不在赛，而在Fight。热血激情，自由民主，不过浮华空壳，供后人顶礼膜拜而已。

五四值得纪念，但可贵之处却早已流失，不过上下五千年，这又有什么可以遗憾。中华文化不在五四，不在百花，而在人人，在园中真实“丑陋”的土地。百花总有凋谢时，留得丰园待后春。

五四已死，有事烧纸。

Vosne Romanee Les Beaux Monts after de Fargues

Remind you life is bitter  after a too sweet taste. 

C2C cycle

is important. After consideration, I decide to reserve more capital for fast turnover business instead of locking it up in long term investment. 

RP effect

RP finally pulls his trigger. 

Lafite: 98-100

Previous: 1590GBP for 1 case

Now: 3375GBP with 1 case Rieussec(~475GBP)

Out of my reach. So bet on Carruades de Lafite. 

将进酒

君不见

黄河之水天上来
奔流到海不复回
君不见
高堂明镜悲白发
朝如青丝暮成雪
人生得意须尽欢
莫使金樽空对月
天生我材必有用
千金散尽还复来
烹羊宰牛且为乐
会须一饮三百杯
岑夫子
丹丘生
将进酒
君莫停
与君歌一曲
请君为我侧耳听
钟鼓馔玉不足贵
但愿长醉不愿醒
古来圣贤皆寂寞
惟有饮者留其名
陈王昔时宴平乐
斗酒十千恣讙谑
主人何为言少钱
径须沽取对君酌
五花马
千金裘
呼儿将出换美酒
与尔同消万古愁

Everybody is watching

what Robert Parker would say about 2008 Bordeaux. The final quote book...

Lafite 2008 En Primeur

GBP795 for 6 bottles. Didn't get the allocation. S**t.

Death and Birth

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/04/0410_recession_lessons/index.htm

Destructive innovation, that's what the old man says. 

Porsche

"...a hedge fund with a car showroom." -- Max Warburton

History tells us, creating and trading risk is more much important than attempt to "manage" it. 

Dual Track Price for Bordeaux?

While the auction market is beginning to have a break from the free fall starting from 2008 which is best supported by the April Acker HK auction, the 2008 En Primeur, starting releasing this week, gives an opposite signal. 

100 EUR for Mouton, 110 EUR for Latour, it has been years for consumers to see such a bargain (2008 is not a terrible vintage). Although some said they would stick to the old pricing mechanism, more and more top growths hint they would follow Latour and Mouton's steps. Personally, I am very interested in how Lafite and Cheval Blanc would react. 

But that doesn't necessarily mean the return of budget wine era. For Bordeaux, divergence is inevitable. Price will fall a lot even for currently reputed wines. But for top names, it would still be a demand side play. 2008 may be just a noise and the bargain release price is just a strategy to test the market and, in certain degree, accelerate the convergence back to the equilibrium. It's just like what used by the HK real estate developer during hard times, just like the dual track price mechanism used in China's transition from central planning to market ecnonmy. 

Whatever, the young market is experiencing turmoil now and this must be good for all the participants. We all learn from the process. 

World of Goo

Terrific game. Physic engine is the key. 

Irish Coffe

Cool! Easy to make and great taste. 

2005 Quilceda Creek Columbia Valley

Upon opening, a little nose of alcohol, blackberry. Dark red, a little brown rim. Fruity, plum and tannic flavor, a little chocolate and earthy. A pleasant finish. Show balance and potential to develop already. See what happened after decanting. No big change after 2+ hrs decanting. A good wine, but definitely need time to develop. Will revisit after 5-10 years.

Hotel Marques de Riscal

http://www.arcspace.com/architects/gehry/riscal_winery2/riscal2.html

design by Frank Gehry. 

The liquid gold

What are the most expensive bottles for vintage 2005? Romanee Conti DRC, Petrus? For French wines, definitely. But check out this one: Scharzhofberger Riesling Trockenbeerenauslese, Weingut Egon Muller.  

It seems crazy. But TBA is the crown of Germany wines. And E. Muller's Scharzhofberger TBA is the pearl on the crown. 

The new Live-Ex classification

http://liv-ex.typepad.com/livex_fine_wine_market_bl/2009/03/the-liv-ex-bordeaux-classification.html

1982 Chateau Gruaud Larose

Brick red color.

Drink after 1.5 hrs decanting.  Very deep nose of chocolate, espresso. In mouth, smooth and powerful. Can feel oaky, black berries, earthy and floral. A long finish. 

After 2 hrs decanting, the chocolate and espresso flavor peaked. 

After 3 hrs decanting, the earthy and chocolate flavor faded. Fruity and floral flavors began to dominate.

A good wine. 

17/20

Red, white and drunk all over

by Natalie MacLean.

A very funny book on her road to wine critic and several interesting topics on wine.  Recommend

Ghost in the shell and Matrix

Check out the interview below

www.warnervideo.com/matrixevents/wachowski.html

Trend Following

If you ask me one way to become millionaire overnight, the suggestion is betting again trend. Again, if there is one way to blow up ASAP, it's betting again trend. 

It's not contradicted if you know the theory of probability and fat tail. Trend is something so smart that can make Richard Dennis as well as something so stupid can bankrupt Lehman Bros. and Bear Sterns. 

Trend following theory may be compensated by Elliot Wave. Or more accurately, it's just another detailed branch of trend following. The reason why it's so popular than hysteria and panic is because when people need a belief, they need that belief so philosophy, so humane, so robust to trust.. That's Elliot wave.

The experience of a trader would be the learning process of how to guess trend from past history, and also, how to exclude his personal emotion from the unbeatable trend going or turning. So my suggestion is: Forget "Buy low and sell high", "timing is everything". These are BS. I will tell you a more detailed nonsense investment motto:

It's all about trend, nothing less, nothing more.   

Millennium Prize Problems in Economics?

In my previous post, I mentioned the book by Marcus Du Sautoy on the history of prime numbers. Besides the main topic, this book also evokes my thinking on another thread. 

You guys may know the famous 1899 Hilbert's 23 unsolved problems. It is then followed by Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems. So if there is a counterpart for economists, what would it like to be? 

It may be harder to figure out compared with its mathematical cousin since economic problems are not so well defined given their close connections to real world problems. Assumption, modeling and solution are equivalently important. 

Chateau Mouton Rothschild

The Music of the Primes

by Marcus Du Sautoy

A wonderful book, funny and easy reading. 

Interested readers may be able to find his lecture at Clay Institute. 

2008年度名言

From "Batman: The Dark Knight"

HARVEY DENT

It's not about what I want. It's about what's fair.

(to Gordon and Batman)

You thought we could be decent men in an indecent world. You thought we could lead by example. You thought the rules could be bent but not break... you were wrong. The world is cruel.

(shows his coin)

And the only morality in a cruel world is chance. Unbiased. Unprejudiced. Fair.

霸王别姬

http://oldrecords.xikao.com/sheng/yangxiaolou/ly/cc-bwbj12.wma

梅兰芳去虞姬，杨小楼去项羽。梅位列四大名旦，而杨更被称为国剧宗师，这一段称得上前无古人，后亦恐无来者。看不到台上的，光是凭唱段就够了。

　近　侍：（白）启奏大王，汉兵攻打甚急。
　项　羽：（白）吩咐下去，四面迎敌者！
　近　侍：（白）领旨！
　项　羽：（白）且住呀！敌人攻打甚急，孤不出马，岂非怯战？此去必当战死沙场，再不能与妃子相见了。
　虞　姬：（白）大王此去，倘有不利，且退往江东，徐图后举，勿以妾为念也。
　项　羽：（白）哎呀，妃子啊！此番交战，必须要轻车简从，方能杀出重围，看来不能与妃子同行，这、这、这便怎么处？哦呵，有了！刘邦与孤旧友，你不如随了他去，也免得孤此去悬心。
　虞　姬：（白）大王啊！自古道：忠臣不事二主，烈女不嫁二夫。王欲图大事岂可顾一妇人？也罢！愿乞君王，三尺宝剑，自刎君前，喂呀！以报深恩也！
　项　羽：（白）妃子，你、你、你、你不可寻此短见。
　虞　姬：（白）大王啊！
　　　　　[哭相思]汉兵已略地，
　　　　　　　　　四面楚歌声。
　　　　　　　　　君王意气尽，
　　　　　　　　　贱妾何聊生！
　项　羽：（白）哇呀呀！（此哇呀呀叹尽霸王平生，妙绝）
　虞　姬：（白）快将宝剑与妾妃！
　项　羽：（白）千万不可！
　虞　姬：（白）大王，四面楚歌又唱起来了。
　项　羽：（白）待孤听来！
　虞　姬：（白）罢！
　项　羽：（白）哎呀！
（奏[尾声]）

粤剧

就我的感觉，其艺术性远不如京剧，也不如更为类似的黄梅戏和越剧。

舞台布置很粗糙，人物对白比较俗套，而且唱腔单调，缺乏表现力。

经济危机进化论

The Survival of the Fittest or The Survival of the Fattest

一剪梅·红藕香残玉簟秋

李清照

红藕香残玉簟秋。轻解罗裳，独上兰舟。云中谁寄锦书来？雁字回时，月满西楼。

花自飘零水自流，一种相思，两处闲愁。此情无计可消除，才下眉头，却上心头。

恭贺牛年

值此新春佳节之际，敝人谨代表chinesegen，mavaron恭祝各位新年快乐，牛年倒大霉，熊运不断，一熊到底。

祝各位股市的搞屎棍一赔到底，尽快破产，赶紧回去家里蹲，还股市以清净。

祝各位俊男美女天天吵架，生活本不易，哪有美好的爱情，三聚氰胺都不让加了，肾上腺素还能持久么？

祝各位80后父母被小孩折磨的不成人形，若不过此关，彻底顿悟，将来必是养儿为患。

祝各位找工作的四处碰壁，食不果腹。本就是拾人牙慧，什么金领白领，不过是自欺欺人罢了。

祝各位与熊共舞，认清现实，万物皆数字，横竖皆一死，做一个彻头彻底的唯物主义者。

最后送大家一副挽联：

牛熊本一体，又何分吉凶；

悲喜虽两极，却皆由人定；

横批： 和谐社会

2009

谁赚不到钱就是棒槌

梅兰芳

看了陈凯歌的梅兰芳，回想中国最近几十年导演的代表人物，张艺谋，陈凯歌，贾樟柯，各有各的风格。

看看域名注册如何SB

shabi.me=> 已被注册

Moon River

I have no idea how many versions there are. It's like the benchmark song for every pop singer. Some versions I like:

1. Original Audrey Hepburn

2. Louis Armstrong, it sounds so different

3. Jennifer Love Hewitt

4. Andrea Ross

5. Dean Martin, the real-world "Johnny Fontane"?

庚子即事

- （清）狄楚青

太平歌舞寿常事，

到处风点五色旗；

家国兴亡谁管得，

满城争说叫天儿。

Icon Sets

http://www.noupe.com/icons/50-most-beautiful-icon-sets-created-in-2008.html

Love Me Little, Love Me Long

（我看到的时候想的翻译是"日渐情，日久情"。后来google的是"两情若是久长时，又岂在朝朝暮暮"，不俗。）

Anonymous

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Love that is too hot and strong

Burneth soon to waste.

Still, I would not have thee cold,

Not too backward, nor too bold;

Love that lasteth till tis old

Fadeth not in haste.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

If thou lovest me too much,

It will not prove as true as touch;

Love me little, more than such,

For I fear the end.

I am with little well content,

And a little from thee sent

Is enough, with true intent

To be steadfast friend.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Say thou lov'st me while thou live;

I to thee my love will give,

Never dreaming to deceive

Whiles that life endures.

Nay, and after death, in sooth,

I to thee will keep my truth, 

As now, when in my May of youth;

This my love assures.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Constant love is moderate ever,

And it will through life persever;

Give me that, with true endeavor

I will it restore.

A suit of durance let it be,

For all weathers that for me,

For the land or for the sea,

Lasting evermore.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Winter's cold, or summer's heat,

Autumn's tempests on it beat,

It can never know defeat,

Never can rebel.

Such the love that I would gain,

Such the love, I tell thee plain,

Though must give, or woo in vain; 

So to thee, farewell!

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

The perfect store

Inside eBay by Adam Cohen.

A very good book about how eBay started and grew to current magnate. There are many insights inside the book, like how the founders hesitated and made decisions in front of difficulties and uncertainties.

Strongly recommend.

Dark Knight - End Credits

梅兰芳

看到陈凯歌导演的梅兰芳首映，想起我看过的一部纪录片，"粉墨春秋"。是由张元监制的。做得相当不错，无论是对于事件线索的整理还是对于同一个线索"花开两朵，各表一枝"的表现手法，以及插入影像和配乐的处理，都为整部片子增色不少。

Decode IBFX contest (II)

Pick up the thread. We now talk about how to get the IBFX contest winner bonus free of risk. 

The contest is held monthly and the top 5 percentage winners would be awarded, bonus ranged from $3,000-$250.

It might look hard if you give a historical review. The top gunner can have 300-600% return. Now I show you how to get thte bonus even if you are a fresh hand. 

First, you need to find a bunch of your friends to help you carry out this plan. Let's say you can have 16 accounts, including your own. Then you play a binomial tree game. That is, you first split the 16 accounts into two groups and they carry out exactly opposite actions. So, if one of your group blow up, then the other group's asset must be doubled. The 2nd stage, you split the survived group into a 4-4. Then continue the same process. 

Theoretically, you can have a highest return by this method up to 1,600% which can well assure you a bonus in the contest. Besides, your own investment is not hurt since any of your moves is strictly paired. The only cost is the spread cost which you need to do some homework on. 

This method, theoretically, may not work all the time. You have to assure your strategy can really boost at least one of your portfolios instead of making them all stay mediocre. However, in forex market, it's not hard to fetch such a path as long as you have some experience. 

Actually this gives rise to a deeper thought. If such pattern is public, there is no liquidity problem in number of accounts. Then it's a fair game again. Everyone would compete the path they can fetch. Besides, for IBFX, it's much more better off. That's also a reason why it doesn't point out the pattern. Of course, the enormous effort needed to track such behaviors is also in consideration. 

偶然看到北大门卡入校的消息，想起梅贻琦的一句话

“所謂大學者，非謂有大樓之謂也，有大師之謂也”

照我看现在的中国大学，大师估计做不到，大门还是可以的，不过可惜的是应该努力的是建造心灵的大门，而不是钢铁的大门。

用冠军送别图巴

99年对泰山队来说，让所有泰山球迷刻骨铭心的，是足协杯决赛主场对大连的一波三折，是一个赛季未开张的罗梅罗临别的帽子戏法，是他最后一分钟的绝杀，当然，如果稍微往后看一点的话，那么桑尼和邵克难的绝唱也算一种缺憾美。

9年以后的今天，在一个不可同日而语的漂亮场地上，我们的技战术素养也是不可同日而语的球员们，踢完一场让人皱眉的比赛，依旧依靠另外一场比赛的平局，完成了三冠的任务。

很多人说不该苛责，因为心理压力是任何人都无法避免的难题，的确，我也认为即便输掉这场比赛，输掉冠军，也没有什么可以责备的，不过不是因为什么心理压力，而是因为之前的比赛早已决定了结果，如果不看朱骏的天花乱坠，不看媒体的煽风点火，去看看鲁能之前的比赛，难道不让人觉得可悲？周文渊说是弱势冠军，鲁能的弱势似乎验证了其他球队的进步，不过我看不过是正常的周期理论，鲁能的弱势虽然可以解释为相对的进步，不过我觉得更为可悲的是联赛最高水平的没落，面对世界足球的进步，中国足球的落后更加明显。其他球队的周期性进步就一定会演化成未来的共同提高么？从中超的历史做不出这样的推断。

一个充满概率的冠军或者战绩没有任何意义，正如当年的凯泽斯劳滕早已沉沦乙级一样。不过或许对于今天的鲁能，从某种意义上，它是一个救命的冠军，如果没有，那么面对当前的改革形势，这样一个地位尴尬的俱乐部或许明年就会土崩瓦解，而现在，我们或许还有几年时间去尝试变革。

正如很多媒体和球迷所说的，无论是俱乐部还是图巴，球员，现在更多的是在吃过去的老本，如果说06年我们看到了一个充满希望的冠军，甚至即便对手也不得不承认用那种阵容开创一个时代的可能性，那么今年我们只能说对于未来，我们一无所知，在前面的，或许更大的可能是一个衰败，至于说有多快，只要看看大连就知道了。

聊聊球员，我们85一代现在已经消耗殆尽，除了几个在替补席上无所适从的替补或许还有一些潜力，其他的基本都已经没什么潜力可挖，而现在的他们果真就如此出色么，看看大连的81一代，能说苑维伟，吕征，周海滨们就一定超过了王圣，阎嵩，胡兆军么？除了少数几个，其他水平差得远。大连的昨天就是我们的今天，而大连的今天难保不是我们的明天。

很多人挽留图巴，的确，好像把一个夺冠教练解约确实没有什么先例，虽然夺冠后下一个赛季崩盘的球队的例子比比皆是。不过同样，我也从来没见过一个教练在赛季开始的时候就赌气的宣布这会是最后一个赛季。设想假如我们大败给广州而失去冠军？也许球迷会砸车，球员会群殴，俱乐部会清查，而图巴，则可以气冲冲的回塞尔维亚，去揭露他的内幕。我们距离这些，难道真的很远么？为什么不趁现在的机会，让大家好聚好散，而不是把这些都留在下一个赛季，既然现实或许不能改变，我们为什么不选择保留一些起码美好的回忆，就让图巴，康梦君们，带着美好的回忆，带着他们早已透支的支票离开，为他们自己，为鲁能，为球迷留下一个值得回忆的过去，和一个起码充满不确定性的未来。

所谓的稳定的王朝，无一例外是从变革开始的，曼联，切尔西，巴萨，甚至今天的鲁能，不也是从鲍里斯开始，当球队的下降趋势明显，以及依靠现有资源的可挖掘潜力已经非常有限的时候，何必抱有幻想而不是具备变革的勇气？

未来难以预测，也许图巴明年会抱回亚冠冠军，抑或赛季结束后和康老总一起黯然下课，不过确定的是过去，是已经拿到的三冠，这也许就是大家为什么总喜欢谈论过去，喜欢想当然，而不喜欢未来和与之形影不离的不确定性。

Replicate the success of Shrek?

http://www.apple.com/trailers/dreamworks/monstersvsaliens/

Michael Rabin

I have only one word to say about Michael Rabin's violin skills: impeccable. 

深交所

I admire those who start things from zero. Divide and conquer, this is real fun. 

http://www.chinavalue.net/Article/Archive/2005/11/7/13342.html

打油诗

一杯茶，一包烟，一支烂股盯半天

一分钱，一份闲，一批散户套半年

Rounding tricks

number theory day. another problem for fun. 

think about the bank. their system is with a minimal unit: 0.01, or, a cent. So any more decimal places would be rounded using the most common rule: 0-4, round down; 5-9, round up. 

so think about the following two scenarios:

1. Bank lends 0.1 to A, charging 6.31% annually. This 0.1 comes from two resources, a 0.05 deposit from B and the left 0.05 deposit from C. The deposit rate, for simplicity, also assumed to be 6.31%. Then what would be left in the bank after one year?

Not zero. The correct answer would be: (RND means round the number)

RND{ 0.1 * ( 1 + 6.31% ) } - 2 * RND{ 0.05 * ( 1 + 6.31% ) } = 0.11 - 2 * 0.05 = 0.01 

Well, you can say it's trivial. Who would give a damn to the 1 cent, especially for the bank. So let's see another example:

2. You have 160,000 to deposit into a bank with 3.14% annual deposit rate. What would you expect?

The answer may not be the most common one: 160,000 * ( 1 + 3.14% ) = 165,024. Let me show you another trick.

You split your money into pieces each with identical amount: 0.16. So for each piece, the finaly amount after a year would be RND{ 0.16 * ( 1 + 3.14% ) } = 0.17. Thus you would get 0.17 * 10^6 = 170,000. Compared with previous 165,024. An extra 4,976 is in your pocket. And that equals to a 6.25% annual rate. 

Of course, there are many limits in the bank. And my example is not to teach you to arbitrage, but to show you how a badly designed system could damage. 

I won't bother to explain the math after the two examples. Just for fun. 

Little problem for fun

just watched a video talking about Euler and his works. so post a little problem for fun in memory of this great mathematician. 

given a series of digits within {0,1,...,9} and operators to be taken in {+,-,*,/}. you can use () to change order arbitrarily. the ultimate goal is to form an equality between the left and right sides. 

a few examples:

22 => 2=2

235 => 2+3=5

4221 => 4/(2+2)=1

rules:

1. there must be one and only one operator between two consecutive digits. so 4*6=24 is illegal. 

2. there might be multiple some equalities, like 2221 => 2/2=2-1, 2-2/2=1. it's ok. as long as you can find one. still count as one.  

so here comes the problem. given a 2-digit pair, of course there are only 10 such equalities. then what about 3-digit, 4-digit, 5-digit? and what about 100-digit? how many serials we can find such equalities?

just a problem for fun. anyone who sends the answer (with a reasonable logic other than brute force) will win a good gift.

thanks for playing. 

Oh, man, it's so funny

Decode IBFX contest (I)

IBFX is holding a contest for its mini account which requires a min 250 deposit. The contest is calculated each month based on percentage return. Top 5 would be awarded cash directly. 

Several interesting thing can be observed from the historical results. 

1. The top 5 or so usually would dramatically outperform the other guys. They usually would at least double their assets. The top 100 can at least have a 10% return. 

2. There are always guys who blow up their whole assets. Even worse, someone can lose more than they have. This may be due to a terrible bet on the Friday close. 

3. If the contest participants can be viewed as rational sample of the traders at IBFX. Then definitely the broker woule earn a considerable amount from both spread taking and holding the opposite portfolios to the traders'.

Plateau

At triple point, finally there shows some stagnation. Is this because of human weaknesses or over exploration of my profitable patterns? In either case, time to do some review and summary.

Break, we need. 

Is now the right time to buy corporate America?

The election of Obama may not appear as beautiful as it seems. Too many and too chaotic expectations are put on him. But from another angle, as the old wall street saying goes, timing is everything. Obama knows this well. There is still room for the downside of American economy. But waiting for another 4 years probably would cost his opportunity to become Roosevelt. Risk is there, but the reward is pretty lucrative.

If we view the election as trading, then it's just a game that you can only access at limited openings. What's more, your opponent would only make you more risk seeking.

It's not the right time to buy America now. But for Obama, I would say he is lucky to be chosen at this historical time.

A simple explanation of the 5% rule

Many asked me about the 5% rule I said in previous post. Let's get some clue from simple examples.

In short, this is just some analogous version of the notorious doubling strategy used in option trading. In forex market, there could be some sudden move which is highly unpredictable and contradicted to long-term trend. Mostly, such move would be controlled within 2% range, which, take EUR/USD as example, is some 200-250 pips move. That is to say, given a 100 margin ratio, you are going to be eliminated if your position is over half of your asset (I mean the margin you use). What's more important is such move usually happens in less than 5 minutes, maybe without even a look back. For guys like me who can't concentrate on the market all the time, such move is deadly.

So taken the famous Fibonacci rule, there might be a 30% correction before next major move. So make it safe, let's say 20%. Then if we assume you only buy before the move and at the bottom of the move, an asset allocation about 1:4 would be appropriate. Still in pursuit of simpleness, let's just divide it by two to reflect your risk attitude. That's 5%.

Of course this analysis is too naive. In practice there are tons of variations to reflect your own strategy and risk tolerance. For me, I would use a 1% per trade at most. And what's more important than this in trading is some other principles like strict stop loss, macro analysis, etc. Anyway, the risk control of this means should be appriaciated.

Probabilistic trader

All investment books will tell you some methods to make you a millionaire. But everybody knows this is not the truth. Logically, this is for sure in terms of real money. But this may also been explained by adaptive market hypothesis.

A trader will create self-autocorrelation by taking his past trading record into consideration. A loss will turn him into hesitation at another several trades. This implicitly creates the resonance, which can be described as some emerging order as in Strogatz's "SYNC".

Such resonance has a tendency to eliminate any profitable short term trading patterns. That's why trending following is so popular. Finally we need some external stimulus to support our speculation.

Double in Two Days

This post is to memorize the doubling of my trading asset in two days, first time in my trading life. What's good is this is achieved with strict risk control and without a single crazy bet. Is this a signal that my up trend has begun or just the peak of another cycle? Let's wait and see.

At least I am going to have a happy weekend. Thank you, Mr. Depression.

Trading

Currency trading is pretty much alike real life. Any time, only risk at most 5%, or say, release 5% of your temper. Or else, there is great risk to ruin yourself.

Remember what Lipschutz says, don't be shaken out by noise.

谢晋

Death of a director, gone the memory of a generation.

Fischer Black and the revolutionary idea of finance

A terrific biography of Fischer Black. Highly recommend to those who want to have a taste of development of modern economic theories.

Best time in 40 years

Looking back at history, all turmoils are perfect materials for great movies, books, ideas and reforms. Can't wait to see them.

The final bullet

The life as a trader, it seems you are always waiting, no matter how successful you have been, for the final black bullet that will catch you, and catch you hard.

Just don't forget to smile when you fall down.

Chimay Triple

Golden color and fruity aroma.

black swan redemption

black swan redemption

for day
for night
i'm praying
for the sacred redemption

redemption comes
just as seldom as
appearance of black swan

black swans stroll around
frequent and unperceived

since we are
are busy praying
for appearance of
the black swan

Michael Nyman

Amazing Grace

Leann Rimes - Amazing Grace

this version is a little bit overdone....

越人歌

今夕何夕兮？搴舟中流。
今日何日兮？得与王子同舟。
蒙羞被好兮，不訾诟耻。
心几顽而不绝兮，得知王子。
山有木兮木有枝，心说君兮君不知。

Duvel

The best foam I've ever seen. And incredible taste. Highly recommend.

Chimay Trappist

Taste its Bleu today. A wonderful ale. Very complex flavor. Even better than Newcastle. Prepare to begin my Belgian beer tour.

Check out this guy

http://www2.tepper.cmu.edu/afs/andrew/gsia/meltzer/

Trend is your friend

Pitbull

by Martin Schwartz

An intraday trader who reminds me of myself. Thanks to his big mouth, we can see the pros and cons to be an intraday trader. Besides that, no much useful information is provided.

What remains unchanged since the very first day of financial world is people's desires

"After I decided to make markets a career, I realized that mass psychology is what they're all about."
- Robert Prechter

My 400th book

checked out from CU lib, happens to be Andrew Lo's "Hedge funds".

Feed the money cow

Just find a good Microsoft Outlook plug-in Xobni. It's another business model for start-ups. Create the suitable "food" for cash abundant magnates and wait to be preyed.

Way of the turtle

by Curtis Faith.

The cover of this book is a little too fancy which makes me think it's just another bluffing popular reading. However, as I go through the details, I find my rash judgment almost let me miss a great piece.

To be frank, this book doesn't provide too many practical skills. But what Curtis tells is enough for any reader to figure out many reasonable trading rules. Those general principles also avoid the "overoptimization" problem defined in the book. As a trader, Curtis's opinions are helpful as well as unbiased. Crystal and objective. This, I think, mostly comes from his deep understanding about the trading activity.

A must-read.

Credit crisis

Happy planet

mavaron's craps on investment - IV

(1) "Stock market is a postmodern creation to avoid communism and pursue full employment."

(2) "Breaking a rule is more important for a rule than simply obeying it."

Comment: What you don't believe weighs more than what you believe.

(3) "What matters is how you define risk, but not how you hedge it."

(4) "Theorists try to capture volatility while practitioners create it."

Comment: In modern world, innovative investment strategies are important.

(5) "The only shortcut to save a huge loss is to create another huger loss to save."

Comment: No matter what situation you are in, stay calm and cool.

Information age

Hedge Hunters, by Katherine Burton

In my opinion, shy to Market Wizards series and Inside the House of Money.