乔布斯

会想一个很简单的问题：如果没有乔布斯，没有iPod，iPhone，iPad，世界会是怎么样？会有另一个乔布斯么？从小接受必然性教育的我们或许会倾销于否定世界的发展依赖于某个偶然性，然而两者并不冲突，正如世界的发展依赖于科技进步，然而周期性的震荡起伏也是不可忽视的同样重要的特征。乔布斯一方面激励了许多年轻人投身创新事业，另一方面他确立的苹果的巨大优势也会树立一个巨大的壁垒，减低了它所处行业的波动程度。当乔布斯离去，不可避免的是会有一些冲击，main street和wall street一样，部分是建立在对于未来的期望上的，从这个角度，我们只是在期待另一个disruptive innovation的出现。如此循环，周而复始。

关于乔布斯个人的评价，我想可以套用Paul Krugman在Who was Milton Friedman？里面所写的:

“Milton Friedman played three roles in the intellectual life of the twentieth century. There was Friedman the economist’s economist, who wrote technical, more or less apolitical analyses of consumer behavior and inflation. There was Friedman the policy entrepreneur, who spent decades campaigning on behalf of the policy known as monetarism—finally seeing the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England adopt his doctrine at the end of the 1970s, only to abandon it as unworkable a few years later. Finally, there was Friedman the ideologue, the great popularizer of free-market doctrine.”