When you are Lorenz’s butterfly

Date: 2006-10-20

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Title: When you are Lorenz’s butterfly

Content:

Flap

Wings of a butterfly

Hurricane

Wall Street's Sky

If a butterfly can do that, you may wonder your sell of 1 MSFT or GOOG share may change Forbes list fundamentally? No way.

So is this just because we don’t have wings or have fewer legs? Not quite possible.

Actually the butterfly example is very similar to Wall Street case. We are exposed to short-term uncertainty and long-term steadiness at the same time.

As individual, we care more about tomorrow will rain or not but not what the world will be after 100 years due to global warming. Similarly, for me, trading is more like to spot trend but not do fundamental analysis.

Buy low and sell high. It’s the philosophy, meaning something universally true but useless. To know the market is to know bulk of investors outstanding like you. Now, it’s not Brownian motion. The market is just what you make.

Of course it’s hard to predict when flew move. Sort of art instead of science. I refer you to Jim Cramer’s Real Money for a good introduction. It’s not all and DO NOT just read.

Be an early butterfly but not a lonely one.

And I'm feeling blue
Things you say but maybe they're true
Getting funny dreams again and again
I know what it means but
I can't explain

-Scorpions, “Can’t Explain”