Mavaron's Twitter
2009-12-18
Avatar
2009-12-17
2001, Le Vieux Donjon, Chateauneuf du Pape
2009-12-14
2009-12-08
Dubai crisis - No panic
2009-11-30
Rothaus Pils TANNEN ZÄPFLE
2009-11-28
Dubai crisis - Follow up
2009-11-27
A second thought on the black swan
Why we need options
Dubai is down
2009-11-26
Stop Loss
Headline
Black swan flied by and I am still alive...
2009-11-21
The road to Avatar
2009-11-20
2009-11-19
Le Rustique - Camembert
2009-11-18
Is NFA helping you to survive?
2009-11-17
平凡的世界
2009-11-11
2009-11-06
Napa classification
2009-11-05
My Forex trading P/L
very interesting cyclic pattern
Another single-letter ticker stock
2009-11-04
US cult wines
2009-10-30
Forex brokers
2009-10-22
Wine Tycoon, the game
2009-10-18
2009-09-27
大林和小林
2009-09-25
Carruades Phenomenon
2009-09-23
Stradivari violins
Kindle books can be read on iphone and ipod touch
Path design
There is always a bigger game
2009-09-22
Interesting
月饼战策略
2009-09-21
Montrachet 1998 - Comte de Lafon
Medium golden. Nose of honey and wood. Strong acid and touch of honey, apple, wood and mineral but very smooth. The finish is long, fruity and sweet. Overall, a less-sweet-more-acidy version of sauternes. A terrific white.
山钢与日钢合并思考(二)
2009-09-20
山钢与日钢合并思考
山钢与日钢合并思考
日钢的名声大振,部分源于在四川赈灾日钢老总的巨额捐赠,且不说坊间有关日钢的各种传闻,此举为日钢赢得了一定的媒体好感,或许这也是为何今天山钢日钢合并媒体偏向日钢的一部分因素。中央电视台的新闻周刊节目做过一期有关两家合并的专题,主持人白岩松加上嘉宾吴晓波和一个清华的教授,虽然基调是谴责,但只是说了20分钟无用的废话。整个节目依旧是白的个人主观评论,既无严谨的分析,也无事实数据支持。
收购兼并,如同合作博弈,在自由市场必于双方预期皆有益而方能进行,虽然有研究表明大多数事后效果远未达预期。对于钢铁类的资源企业而言,收购兼并所带来的好处,无非以下几条:产能扩大带来的政府政策方面的扶持;由于合并产生的产能限额再优化;由于规模效应带来的议价优势;由于合并带来的共同业务的精简。
逐条分析,当前来说,似乎除了政府方面的考虑,其他方面并无明显的优势。对于产能的调整现阶段根本不需要收购兼并来实施,而相反的是恐怕这个会成为政府主导此次合并的一张王牌。议价谈判,结合中钢协最近的表现,此举更是空中楼阁,而精简优化,从之前的联合的莱钢济钢来看,更是没影的事。一言以蔽之,一切的美景,都是嘴说出来的。
回顾这一合并的过程,有两点最为人诟病,一是政府主导,作为上市公司,似乎没人提到莱钢济钢其他股东权益在这一行为的体现,更多得到照顾的是本已经地位尴尬的政府机关山东冶金总公司,如此行为,恐怕对将来的投资者信心会有不利影响;第二,在媒体的报道中,整个合并过程似乎是拉郎配,在经济形势转好的今天,日钢有资格待价而沽,“和谐”的合并造成的国进民退是当前媒体所不愿意看到的。
合并以后的大山钢并非一路平坦,一来经济形势难料,如果经济下行,则日钢反而成为包袱。二者管理堪忧,这次合并造成的人心不和会对将来的企业管理留下后遗症。第三,即便是政府行为,如何协调地方和省级财政的关系,第四,市场多变,小钢铁企业相比大型钢企,具备灵活性和准确的市场定位,消灭小型钢企,降低市场灵活度,与整体经济无益,而且反而使之成为国家的包袱,再说将来若再出现这种情况,再如何应对。
企业具备相当的容错性,新山钢虽然不会出现瞬间崩盘的危险,但其中产生的不职业,不负责却值得警惕,任何产业,怎能求助于简单的规模扩大,依此遗留下的问题,又如何进行问责。不过从另一个可能来说,从执行力来说,此次合并恐怕不会产生实质影响,为了赶时间的仓促合并其中难免各方利益的妥协,留有颇多后手,合并一事的主导者手中牌恐怕已经出了大半,日钢又非鱼肉,如此一来,恐有大山钢之名而无其之实。整个行为,到最后于实体经济活动无影响,而只是政治行为和某小部分人利益的提升。
2009-08-25
One Billion Customers
2009-08-22
The Jefferson's Bottles
2009-08-21
Wine Price
'In Bordeaux, Peter Sichel of the Maison Sichel negociant said that the average price per bottle for top Bordeaux wines fell to 160 francs (about $33.50 at current exchange rates) for the 1991 vintage, from 205 francs ($43) for the 1990.
This sharp drop, after several years of mounting prices, partly reflected the fact that the 1990 vintage is widely regarded as superior. But in part, Mr. Sichel said, "it showed that the bubble has burst." '
2009-08-19
Reforming en primeur by Live-Ex
2009-08-08
Veranda Cabernet/Carmenere 2007
2009-08-06
The prototype of Chef Gusteau in Ratatouille?
2009-08-01
2009-07-22
Faustino Winery
2009-07-18
实践教学
2009-07-10
2009-07-05
一个有趣的故事
Omission of the final chapter
The book has three parts of seven chapters each. Burgess has stated that the total of 21 chapters was an intentional nod to the age of 21 being recognised as a milestone in human maturation. The 21st chapter was omitted from the editions published in the United States prior to 1986.[3] In the introduction to the updated American text (these newer editions include the missing 21st chapter), Burgess explains that when he'd first brought the book to an American publisher, he'd been told that U.S. audiences would never go for the final chapter, in which Alex sees the error of his ways, decides he has lost all energy for and thrill from violence and resolves to turn his life around (a slow-ripening but classic moment of metanoia—the moment at which one's protagonist realises that everything he thought he knew was wrong).
At the American publisher's insistence, Burgess allowed their editors to cut the redeeming final chapter from the U.S. version, so that the tale would end on a note of bleak despair, with young Alex succumbing to his darker nature—an ending which the publisher insisted would be 'more realistic' and appealing to a U.S. audience. The film adaptation, directed by Stanley Kubrick, is based on this "badly flawed" (Burgess' words, ibid.) American edition of the book. Kubrick claimed [4] that he had not read the original version until he had virtually finished the screenplay, but that he certainly had never given any serious consideration to using it.
2009-06-26
Michaeal Jackson has gone
The new paradigm for financial markets
Finally, Mr. Soros realizes what's behind his long advocated cycle theory. He called it reflexiticity. In my opinion, better called AMH (adaptive market hypothesis), named by Andrew Lo.
2009-06-23
Slow Reaction vs. Crisis Proof
2009-06-20
影院的竞价模式
2009-06-19
鱼群的自组织行为(I)
记得当年在清华,听过一个涂小媛的seminar,大致是有关artificial fish的,不过她所阐述的整个系统,更集中在分布式的个体行为以及相关的CG表述上。我对这些没有什么兴趣,真正有意思的是和emerging order联系起来,前两天看一个有关predator的纪录片,里面的鱼群在遭受攻击的时候,会从原来有方向性的自然的聚集状态自动形成一个球形,撇开这里面的进化原理不谈,如何从分布式的个体形成有统一行动,进而产生非常有规则的emerging order就非常有趣(记得当年张长水在AI课上演示过一个herd behavior的动画,不过似乎也不涉及深层次的问题)。
2009-06-16
Conquer the crash
2009-06-14
2009-06-03
2009-05-28
Long or Short?
Squanderville vs. Thriftville
2009-05-20
RFID
2009-05-19
How China makes money by disappointing the world
2009-05-18
A good way to short
Short QQQ (PSQ)
Short Dow 30 (DOG)
Short S&P 500 (SH)
Short MidCap400 (MYY)
Short SmallCap600 (SBB)
Short Russell2000 (RWM)
UltraShort QQQ (QID)
UltraShort Dow 30 (DXD)
UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS)
UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ)
UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD)
UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)
Short international :
Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM)
Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ)
UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)
UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV)
UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV)
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP)
UltraShort Style:
UltraShort Russell1000 Value (SJF)
UltraShort Russell1000 Growth (SFK)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Value (SJL)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth (SDK)
UltraShort Russell2000 Value (SJH)
UltraShort Russell2000 Growth (SKK)
UltraShort Sector:
UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
UltraShort Consumer Goods (SZK)
UltraShort Consumer Services (SCC)
UltraShort Financials (SKF)
UltraShort Health Care (RXD)
UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)
UltraShort Semiconductors (SSG)
UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
UltraShort Technology (REW)
UltraShort Utilities (SDP)
2009-05-16
Turmoil at Sequoia China
2009-05-15
2009-05-13
Apple WWDC 2009
2009-05-11
老狗
Chanel, world's oldest dog, has her day
2009-05-10
無法松の一生
2009-05-07
2009-05-05
已经忘却的纪念
2009-05-03
C2C cycle
2009-04-30
RP effect
2009-04-27
将进酒
君不见
黄河之水天上来
奔流到海不复回
君不见
高堂明镜悲白发
朝如青丝暮成雪
人生得意须尽欢
莫使金樽空对月
天生我材必有用
千金散尽还复来
烹羊宰牛且为乐
会须一饮三百杯
岑夫子
丹丘生
将进酒
君莫停
与君歌一曲
请君为我侧耳听
钟鼓馔玉不足贵
但愿长醉不愿醒
古来圣贤皆寂寞
惟有饮者留其名
陈王昔时宴平乐
斗酒十千恣讙谑
主人何为言少钱
径须沽取对君酌
五花马
千金裘
呼儿将出换美酒
与尔同消万古愁
2009-04-26
2009-04-22
2009-04-21
Death and Birth
2009-04-17
Porsche
2009-04-16
Dual Track Price for Bordeaux?
2009-03-28
2009-03-27
2005 Quilceda Creek Columbia Valley
2009-03-26
2009-03-19
The liquid gold
2009-03-17
1982 Chateau Gruaud Larose
2009-03-10
Red, white and drunk all over
2009-03-07
Ghost in the shell and Matrix
2009-03-06
Trend Following
It's all about trend, nothing less, nothing more.
2009-02-17
Millennium Prize Problems in Economics?
2009-02-16
The Music of the Primes
2009-02-12
2008年度名言
2009-02-09
霸王别姬
项 羽:(白)吩咐下去,四面迎敌者!
近 侍:(白)领旨!
项 羽:(白)且住呀!敌人攻打甚急,孤不出马,岂非怯战?此去必当战死沙场,再不能与妃子相见了。
虞 姬:(白)大王此去,倘有不利,且退往江东,徐图后举,勿以妾为念也。
项 羽:(白)哎呀,妃子啊!此番交战,必须要轻车简从,方能杀出重围,看来不能与妃子同行,这、这、这便怎么处?哦呵,有了!刘邦与孤旧友,你不如随了他去,也免得孤此去悬心。
虞 姬:(白)大王啊!自古道:忠臣不事二主,烈女不嫁二夫。王欲图大事岂可顾一妇人?也罢!愿乞君王,三尺宝剑,自刎君前,喂呀!以报深恩也!
项 羽:(白)妃子,你、你、你、你不可寻此短见。
虞 姬:(白)大王啊!
[哭相思]汉兵已略地,
四面楚歌声。
君王意气尽,
贱妾何聊生!
项 羽:(白)哇呀呀!(此哇呀呀叹尽霸王平生,妙绝)
虞 姬:(白)快将宝剑与妾妃!
项 羽:(白)千万不可!
虞 姬:(白)大王,四面楚歌又唱起来了。
项 羽:(白)待孤听来!
虞 姬:(白)罢!
项 羽:(白)哎呀!
(奏[尾声])