The major resistance

EUR=1.5USD

大林和小林

最早是在一个中国童话系列连环画里看到，今天偶然看到原版，有点卡尔维诺的风格。

http://www.marxists.org/chinese/reference-books/dalinxiaolin.htm

Hold Your Cash for iPad

Carruades Phenomenon

that's what farrvintners name it. Yes, the price has rocketed due to the recovery of global economy and the buyers from emerging markets. you can say it's another speculative bubble. but i am glad i am one of the early riders.

a case of carruades 2007 en primeur i bought in April at GBP585 are now sold by the same dealer for 1275. this is not the best investment i have done, but certainly most joyful.

PS:

a bloomberg article on lafite price:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aSqQlmhOt6yU

“抢镜头”的松鼠

Stradivari violins

One of the most expensive musical instruments is Stradivari violin. According to a 2004 Forbes article, the luthier made around 1,100 violins and 650 are left. Right then, the world record is kept at $2.03m by a Strad violin called "Lady Tennant". But now, go to the website of Stradivari society, it's said the record is now set at $9.5m on a Strad violin named "Barrow" by a Russian collector. While this is astonishing, the cello "Dupont", also fabricated by Antonio Stradivari, previously owned by Rostropovich, has been acquired by Japan Music Foundation at $20m. I am curious what price "Davidoff" would be sold if it's on market one day, which is owned by Yo-yo Ma.

Kindle books can be read on iphone and ipod touch

A smart move by Amazon. But what if Apple rolls out its own tablet? A Kindle killer?

http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html?ie=UTF8&ref=dp_kinw_ae_2&docId=1000301301

Path design

Traditionally, a game is well defined and each player has his own information set and risk attitude. Based on this, various forms of game can be discussed.

However, the game itself is part of the evolution. How it evolves also depends on each player's decision and the historical path. It's similar to Andrew Lo's adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). And it's different from the learning theory on that the complete form of the game is unknown. There is not a definite goal to put all backward reasoning to an end.

So rather than mechanism design, we should focus on path design. It's still kind of mechanism design, just in a dynamic way. And most important, feedback is needed in order to see how far the game has gone and how each player's information has evolved. Based on these information, we are able to design the next feasible path.

I am not quite crystal about the theory and its possible applications right now. I will review some literature and come back with more rigorous and applicable ideas later. So stay tuned on.

There is always a bigger game

excerpted from the book "The Art of Strategy" by Dixit and Nalebuff and also is a good quick summary of the main principles of the book.

To be more complete, there is always a bigger, longer and crazier game.

Interesting

嘉德09拍卖的几个成交：

李苦禅 /198. 蔬菜图 RMB 25,000-35,000 RMB 257,600

许麟庐 双鳜图 RMB 6,000-9,000 RMB 24,640

（清）张廷玉等纂 古香斋新刻. RMB 1,000-2,000 RMB 47,040

前为参考价，后为实际成交价。和葡萄酒拍卖来比，差得太离谱。如李苦禅，程十发，黄宾虹，李可染等大家作品除了流拍，都是超出参考价数倍成交。

一个很有意思的是，价格越低，成交价偏的越厉害，高价反而相对准确。不过这种人为制造的噱头实在可笑，若是zero reserve price要专业拍卖行何干。至于说价格虽会有波动，但中国书画属于传统领域，又不是当代艺术，怎么会有如此大的偏差。这么干明显是欺负外行人。而流拍亦是诡异，如程十发的少女双鹿图，参考价45000-65000，虽较其他几幅为高，但考虑类似的一幅纨扇仕女最后成交123200，应该不是问题。低于底价？临阵退出？赝品？

看来拍卖市场果然猫腻众多，应该很有意思。

月饼战策略

对于所有中国的面点房来说，毫无疑问，一年大部分盈利的要寄托于每年中秋的月饼销售，食品加工行业本身毛利率已经不小，而月饼更是如此。然而日益激烈的月饼市场也难免让不少厂家头疼，一个门槛过低的市场很容易充斥大量“无产阶级”，要打赢一场月饼战也非易事。

求助广告和公关是大家最容易想到的方法，然而这个渠道也是日趋饱和，难免有囚徒困境的尴尬。再者，广告作用最明显在两个方面：一是新产品或新市场，二者在于长时间高密度形成momentum。对于月饼这一产品，两个都不太成立。一来大多数月饼的消费者有自己的偏好，而月饼创新有限，所以除了像是冰皮之类进军内地市场之类的案例，广告作用有限，二来中秋时间短，短短一两个月的时间很难形成momentum。

排除纯技术因素，这里说几个月饼战策略：

1. 采用礼券：

这个已经是大众趋势，不光是在月饼行业。好处是方便，产品选择广泛，质量来源有保证，月饼厂商利用此种策略，不但可以有效的避免消费者对于月饼这类有特殊期限产品的担忧，还可以灵活的进行促销打折。

基于这一策略，可以衍生出很多小技巧。比如采用跨厂商的通用礼券，甚至跨地区的礼券。中秋礼券的退还策略。

2. 千金散尽：

单凭广告恐怕很难改变一个顾客的偏好，但若此人白捡到一个50的代金券，大多数情况不会浪费。这样一来，厂家莫若做些homework，然后在某些区域偷偷撒代金券。一来本身月饼成本很低，即便有这些代金券，由此扩大的销量完全有能力抵消毛利率的降低，二来可以打击竞争对手的市场份额，三来可以避免明显打折导致的价格战。当然，具体的实施细节以及考虑对手后续应对都可以展开讨论。诚如李白所说：千金散尽还复来。

3. 提前预订：

这个不用赘述，对于提前抢占市场份额以及降低需求不确定性都有很大的好处。

4. 通用材料：

如美心，荣华之类的厂商，所用材料并非只限于制作月饼，因此也就具有特殊的优势。任何一个月饼厂商也要事前想好退路。

Montrachet 1998 - Comte de Lafon

Medium golden. Nose of honey and wood. Strong acid and touch of honey, apple, wood and mineral but very smooth. The finish is long, fruity and sweet. Overall, a less-sweet-more-acidy version of sauternes. A terrific white.

山钢与日钢合并思考(二)

几点有关案中细节的思考：

1. 以退为进：

在双方博弈的过程中，若是日钢已知事不可为，可以采用以退为进的策略，留下后手，而山钢在此过程中，牌已出了不少，恐怕在后继问题上会有些乏力。

2. 投石问路：

此次合并有一个问题并未解决，即是日钢在香港上市资产的处置问题。此举在事后，有亡羊补牢的功效，而在事前，则有投石问路的作用，作为一个后手，作用不容小视。

3. 先下手为强：

此次合并部分借助了工信部新出台的钢铁业兼并重组指导意见，此举虽有一定的政治考虑，也有一定的战略意义。通过合并，不但实现规模的扩大，获得国家一定的政策倾斜，以及整合带来的经济优势，其产生的一定的负面效应，或许也会堵死其他地方的效尤之路，从这个角度，山钢，日钢应当上演一出周瑜打黄盖的好戏。

从经济角度来说，此次合并有其优点，但结合政治考量，简单的判断亦非易事，关键还是如何进行事后监督。

山钢与日钢合并思考

山钢与日钢合并思考

日钢的名声大振，部分源于在四川赈灾日钢老总的巨额捐赠，且不说坊间有关日钢的各种传闻，此举为日钢赢得了一定的媒体好感，或许这也是为何今天山钢日钢合并媒体偏向日钢的一部分因素。中央电视台的新闻周刊节目做过一期有关两家合并的专题，主持人白岩松加上嘉宾吴晓波和一个清华的教授，虽然基调是谴责，但只是说了20分钟无用的废话。整个节目依旧是白的个人主观评论，既无严谨的分析，也无事实数据支持。

收购兼并，如同合作博弈，在自由市场必于双方预期皆有益而方能进行，虽然有研究表明大多数事后效果远未达预期。对于钢铁类的资源企业而言，收购兼并所带来的好处，无非以下几条：产能扩大带来的政府政策方面的扶持；由于合并产生的产能限额再优化；由于规模效应带来的议价优势；由于合并带来的共同业务的精简。

逐条分析，当前来说，似乎除了政府方面的考虑，其他方面并无明显的优势。对于产能的调整现阶段根本不需要收购兼并来实施，而相反的是恐怕这个会成为政府主导此次合并的一张王牌。议价谈判，结合中钢协最近的表现，此举更是空中楼阁，而精简优化，从之前的联合的莱钢济钢来看，更是没影的事。一言以蔽之，一切的美景，都是嘴说出来的。

回顾这一合并的过程，有两点最为人诟病，一是政府主导，作为上市公司，似乎没人提到莱钢济钢其他股东权益在这一行为的体现，更多得到照顾的是本已经地位尴尬的政府机关山东冶金总公司，如此行为，恐怕对将来的投资者信心会有不利影响；第二，在媒体的报道中，整个合并过程似乎是拉郎配，在经济形势转好的今天，日钢有资格待价而沽，“和谐”的合并造成的国进民退是当前媒体所不愿意看到的。

合并以后的大山钢并非一路平坦，一来经济形势难料，如果经济下行，则日钢反而成为包袱。二者管理堪忧，这次合并造成的人心不和会对将来的企业管理留下后遗症。第三，即便是政府行为，如何协调地方和省级财政的关系，第四，市场多变，小钢铁企业相比大型钢企，具备灵活性和准确的市场定位，消灭小型钢企，降低市场灵活度，与整体经济无益，而且反而使之成为国家的包袱，再说将来若再出现这种情况，再如何应对。

企业具备相当的容错性，新山钢虽然不会出现瞬间崩盘的危险，但其中产生的不职业，不负责却值得警惕，任何产业，怎能求助于简单的规模扩大，依此遗留下的问题，又如何进行问责。不过从另一个可能来说，从执行力来说，此次合并恐怕不会产生实质影响，为了赶时间的仓促合并其中难免各方利益的妥协，留有颇多后手，合并一事的主导者手中牌恐怕已经出了大半，日钢又非鱼肉，如此一来，恐有大山钢之名而无其之实。整个行为，到最后于实体经济活动无影响，而只是政治行为和某小部分人利益的提升。

One Billion Customers

By James McGregor.

A very penetrating book. The description of how systems work in China is precise and insightful. The only pity is the book focuses only on business side.

The Jefferson's Bottles

It seems the notorious topic has been revoked once again. Check out the NYTimes article :

http://thepour.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/20/the-wine-experts-lawsuit/

I have read the book "The billionaire's vinegar" before I had some knowledge about wine. And then got to know MB (a.k.a. Michael Broadbent). He seems to enjoy an impeccable reputation in wine society. So personally, I think MB has no incentive to be involved in the "crime" even probablistically it's possible and econonmically, he could have done that. He could well claim that he just sticked to his own principles even those principles can easily put a person into an embarassing position under the current law-based, instead of conscience-based, society.

Actually, this issue becomes so complicated that no final judgment is able to cover all. A law suit is aiming at addressing this problem from an economic angle which has been tried but failed before. But first, it involves with several secret issues that remained unchallenged in high-end market. After all, credit and trust are the default assumptions in such market. If they arebroken, hard to say if it's good. Second, even from economic angle, those buyers, sellers, auction house, even those doubters like Mr. Wallace, are well benefited. So what's the point of a final judgment? It serves no so-called justice purpose but only economic drives of the same greedy people.

Wine Price

Happened to read a NYTimes 1992 article, some excerpt:

'In Bordeaux, Peter Sichel of the Maison Sichel negociant said that the average price per bottle for top Bordeaux wines fell to 160 francs (about $33.50 at current exchange rates) for the 1991 vintage, from 205 francs ($43) for the 1990.

This sharp drop, after several years of mounting prices, partly reflected the fact that the 1990 vintage is widely regarded as superior. But in part, Mr. Sichel said, "it showed that the bubble has burst." '

Now, it's not surprised to see a good vintage of any top Bordeaux sold for ~$400. In other words, in the 17-year period, by its dollar value, that interprets into a rough compound annual return rate 15%.

Reforming en primeur by Live-Ex

http://liv-ex.typepad.com/livex_fine_wine_market_bl/2009/05/reforming-en-primeur.html

I agree that a registration system will facilitate the trading but I doubt it really has any effect before physical delivery. Actually, the multi-layer system currently existent in wine market may well buffer this functionality.

About the transparency, still, the problem is even you know the supply, you have no idea about the demand.

After all, if wine becomes just a number game like stocks, then much of the fun is lost. Although the proposal is good, it will hardly get any progress any time soon. Those who would like to adopt it usually don't need En Primeurs, and those who release En Primeurs, wouldn't feel much incentive to realize such a system in the not-so-fierce game.

First corked wine

A Veranda 2007. I can't describe the flavor but it just feels different...

Veranda Cabernet/Carmenere 2007

A really good wine. Has it all just a little bit thin. Just 10 dollars at ParknShop.

Win the Best Red Blend at 6th Annual Wines of Chile Awards:

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS174668+26-Jan-2009+PRN20090126

Some beautiful pics from Ratatouille

copyright by WaltDisney (watch out! it's big.)

http://images.allmoviephoto.com/2007_Ratatouille/2007_ratatouille_045.jpg

http://images.allmoviephoto.com/2007_Ratatouille/2007_ratatouille_041.jpg

The prototype of Chef Gusteau in Ratatouille?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Loiseau

Excerpt from Wikipedia:

"In February 2003, a prominent French chef, Bernard Loiseau, committed suicide after his widely-admired restaurant Côte d'Or in Saulieu was downgraded by the Gault Millau from 19 to 17 points. At the same time a downgrade by Michelin from three to two stars had been rumoured, but was not done and a denial had been issued to the press. Doubt has been placed on this story since, according to Gault Millau, the chef was aware of the downgrade in advance and looking forward to the challenge."

The beautiful wineries

http://www.bgarch.com/wineries1.html

Liver Cancer Treatment

For fun.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/135980.php

Faustino Winery

By Sir Norman Foster.

http://www.fosterandpartners.com/Projects/1327/Default.aspx

It's cool but not impressive. After all, what is a winery building supposed to be? Of couse the first priority is to serve the functionality of the whole winery. Look at the building, it naturally blocks the wind and sunshine of certain regions. It changes the terrior! The designers know nothing about viticulture.

I will have Renzo Piano to design the winery if I have chance to set up one in the future.

实践教学

如果我教授金融，我会让所有学生在第一天都构建自己的portfolio，当然是在virtual market，但performance及最后的review会计入成绩（会对比benchmark indices进行cannibalization），而且要有一些限制，比如只在特定时间开放（类似Bermudan option）避免占用过多时间，以及提供leverage以及一些标准的trading strategies（例如trending following，event driven...）进行比较。

毛寺生态实验小学

http://www.nddaily.com/cama/200811/t20081128_923569.shtml

一个有趣的故事

在wiki看到有关A clockwork orange的条目，里面有一个当时美国出版商出版英国小说家Burgess原著的时候，要求去掉最后一章有关Alex自我反省救赎，而这一章的内容也没有出现在随后Stanley Kubrick的电影里面。

下面是原文：

Omission of the final chapter

The book has three parts of seven chapters each. Burgess has stated that the total of 21 chapters was an intentional nod to the age of 21 being recognised as a milestone in human maturation. The 21st chapter was omitted from the editions published in the United States prior to 1986.^[3] In the introduction to the updated American text (these newer editions include the missing 21st chapter), Burgess explains that when he'd first brought the book to an American publisher, he'd been told that U.S. audiences would never go for the final chapter, in which Alex sees the error of his ways, decides he has lost all energy for and thrill from violence and resolves to turn his life around (a slow-ripening but classic moment of metanoia—the moment at which one's protagonist realises that everything he thought he knew was wrong).

At the American publisher's insistence, Burgess allowed their editors to cut the redeeming final chapter from the U.S. version, so that the tale would end on a note of bleak despair, with young Alex succumbing to his darker nature—an ending which the publisher insisted would be 'more realistic' and appealing to a U.S. audience. The film adaptation, directed by Stanley Kubrick, is based on this "badly flawed" (Burgess' words, ibid.) American edition of the book. Kubrick claimed ^[4] that he had not read the original version until he had virtually finished the screenplay, but that he certainly had never given any serious consideration to using it.

Michaeal Jackson has gone

You are not alone

-Michael Jackson

Another day has gone

I'm still all alone

How could this be

You're not here with me

You never said goodbye

Someone tell me why

Did you have to go

And leave my world so cold

....

But you are not alone

For I am here with you

Though we're far apart

You're always in my heart

But you are not alone

The new paradigm for financial markets

By George Soros.

Finally, Mr. Soros realizes what's behind his long advocated cycle theory. He called it reflexiticity. In my opinion, better called AMH (adaptive market hypothesis), named by Andrew Lo.

Is real-time sales data communication implementable, necessary and good for all?

An interesting website

http://www.edge.org

Slow Reaction vs. Crisis Proof

投资者心理是股市的重要决定因素，而一个有意思的现象是，最近，中国的股票市场呈现出和世界股市解耦的反弹趋势，在基本面因素（很大程度上是Soros说的reflexity），资金流向因素以外，投资者心理是个值得研究的现象。

在经济收缩时期，股市并不是一个良好的投资手段，尤其是存在极大不确定性的时候，现金是比较保险的选择。然而中国的投资者似乎认清了股市循环的道理，反正要回来的，放在那里也无所谓，如此可爱的想法不但支撑了中国股市独立于全球趋势之外，而且创造了巨大的虚拟经济。这样的股市似乎更符合trend following系统的特征，对于噪声的刺激极为鲁棒。

"中国股市不合理，跌也跌过头，涨也涨过头。"忘了这句话是谁说的，不过既然过头，何为合理？

Hal Varian曾经在Santa Fe研究所举行过一次由agents相互之间博弈的股市游戏，最终胜出的是一个tiny profit grabber，他就像寄生虫一样，击败了所有的trend follower，stats robots...不过最后的世界陷入死寂，因为这些agents是被动的，他们必须依赖于外部的趋势才能获利，从这个角度上来说，似乎我们最终也要回归基本面。

中国股市现在的不合理和当年荷兰的tulip mania，以及美国股市在20年代的疯狂一样，大多是由于其初期不合造成的，还有过多的未受过教育的投资者入市，大多数人还缺乏其他的投资渠道，过高的saving rate也是一定程度上的推动因素，但正如07年的泡沫终将破灭一样，这种self-fulfilling过程随着股市的成熟比较破灭。

对于所有犹豫的投资者而言，我的建议是：如果有足够的机会从理性中获利，那就永远不要寄望于趋附在不合理上面的回报。

影院的竞价模式

昨天去看一场电影，除了中间和后面几排以外，前面大部分的座位是空着的，这和影院的设计当然有关系，而这个区域的差异性可以通过不同的定价来实现利润的提升。

一个简单的机制是采用竞价模式，比如一个正常票价60的影片，提供几个档位选择，比如30:5:60，通过竞价方式，如果报价60，可以直接得到该座位，而如果低价，则有可能会被后来者outbid，所有的竞价在影片开始前2小时截止。

整个机制和ebay现在采用的方式没有什么区别，我想这种方式会很好的提高影院的盈利。

鱼群的自组织行为(I)

记得当年在清华，听过一个涂小媛的seminar，大致是有关artificial fish的，不过她所阐述的整个系统，更集中在分布式的个体行为以及相关的CG表述上。我对这些没有什么兴趣，真正有意思的是和emerging order联系起来，前两天看一个有关predator的纪录片，里面的鱼群在遭受攻击的时候，会从原来有方向性的自然的聚集状态自动形成一个球形，撇开这里面的进化原理不谈，如何从分布式的个体形成有统一行动，进而产生非常有规则的emerging order就非常有趣（记得当年张长水在AI课上演示过一个herd behavior的动画，不过似乎也不涉及深层次的问题）。

最简单的例子是一个圆形的轨迹，如果根据牛顿定律，要形成这样一个轨迹，如果是一个二体系统，需要以一定的速度在轨迹上对称的互转，同理可以扩展到多体的原型轨迹。然而对于鱼群系统，完全是不同的概念，第一，不同于牛顿的场，在鱼群系统，更多的是邻近的鱼相互之间的作用，第二，不同于单个的稳定轨迹，鱼群系统具有很强的鲁棒性，可以根据不同的目的-觅食，逃脱捕猎等-采取不同的状态。这种状态是由进化而来，但也很大程度上和鱼群的这个系统的特征有关系。

几个有意思的问题：

1. 球状鱼群的形成需要怎样的个体行为，稳态是什么形式？

2. 从一个沿某个方向前进的群体，在受到捕食者刺激的情况下，从个体的反应逐渐形成群体的球状应对是怎样的过程？

3. 如何衡量球状鱼群的好处，是整体的函数优化还是一个鱼群个体互相博弈的结果？

4. 根据你的理论模型，还有什么可能的稳态，怎样破坏稳态，对人类捕鱼作业有什么用处？

Conquer the crash

by Robert Pretcher, Elliot Wave advocate.

Some investors may find the book a little overreacted and some may find the investment cycle in the book is too long for them to apply. But for mid- or long-term investment, what is discussed in this book is valuable and insightful.

Recommend.

Sayre's Law

一个应该出现在所有中国革命史书籍里，并从理论和实证角度加以讨论，供所有研究者深思的现象：

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayre's_Law

The Water Economy

http://judson.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/guest-column-like-water-for-money/

Harlan Estate 1996

A terrific wine. Floral and oaky flavor. Very smooth in the mouth.

桂河大桥 - The Bridge on the River Kwai

David Lean的masterpiece，非常有深意的探讨。

Spam fact

统计了一下gmail邮箱最近三天的垃圾邮件，分类如下：

药物 22

贷款 13（12封中文，1封英文）

工作 2

推销 8

杂类 2

Long or Short?

Although I am quite bullish on AAPL's WWDC, going to be held on June 8, the technical signal is not good. I am not sure whether the effect is already priced in. From past experience, I think I can still add my AAPL position before the WWDC but clear it before quarter earnings report.

Squanderville vs. Thriftville

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1053684/posts

Probably the most famous story from Warrent Buffet. Some regard Squanderville to be US and Thriftville to be China, etc. However, it's not that accurate. I have no time to write thoroughly on this right now. Will come back to it when free.

RFID

I think RFID is going to fundamentally change the world in the future. It provides a more precise locating service than GPS. Check this out:

http://www.nearfield.org/2009/04/iphone-rfid-nfc

How China makes money by disappointing the world

在当前经济危机下，中国的地位得到了极大的提升，尤其对于资源型国家，现在不得不唯中国马首是瞻，或许现在一些中国人会“感觉好极了”。

但这种好感觉太过昂贵。从经济角度，中国没有任何理由为别人买单，而从政治角度，这种金钱换来的政治回报不但不稳妥，而且风险太大，日本就是例子。

中国管理自己财富的方式一直备受诟病，现在来看却是难得的机会。当世界都必须倾听你的声音的时候，你就有了创造这个世界最宝贵的资源-风险-的机会，这一点从近期的commodities市场就可以看出来。所以对于中国而言，现在是为自己的主权财富增值的绝好机会，不要被英美投机者蛊惑，用一招”明修栈道，暗渡陈仓“，把他们全部搞垮。

这不会是中国独创，美国惯用此伎俩，而Rothschild家族的发家也源于类似的策略。很简单，当全世界把”希望“寄托于你的时候，买够足够的熊证，然后出来对大家说一句：”非常抱歉......“

套用NBA的经典台词：It's nothing personal, it's just business. 

A good way to short

is to buy short ETF.

ETF Name (Ticker)

Short QQQ (PSQ)
Short Dow 30 (DOG)
Short S&P 500 (SH)
Short MidCap400 (MYY)
Short SmallCap600 (SBB)
Short Russell2000 (RWM)
UltraShort QQQ (QID)
UltraShort Dow 30 (DXD)
UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS)
UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ)
UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD)
UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)

Short international :

Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM)
Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ)
UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)
UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV)
UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV)
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP)

UltraShort Style:

UltraShort Russell1000 Value (SJF)
UltraShort Russell1000 Growth (SFK)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Value (SJL)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth (SDK)
UltraShort Russell2000 Value (SJH)
UltraShort Russell2000 Growth (SKK)

UltraShort Sector:

UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
UltraShort Consumer Goods (SZK)
UltraShort Consumer Services (SCC)
UltraShort Financials (SKF)
UltraShort Health Care (RXD)
UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)
UltraShort Semiconductors (SSG)
UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
UltraShort Technology (REW)
UltraShort Utilities (SDP)

Buy Bonds, Guys

Turmoil at Sequoia China

没有永远的合伙人，只有永远的利益。

http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/05/15/is-sequoia-china-in-trouble/

PS: 这篇文章很快被TechCrunch删掉，在少数几个站点还有备份，

http://www.ajax-blog.com/is-sequoia-china-in-trouble.html

大致意思是张帆由于一些"unethical"行为，沈南鹏由于在一宗涉及凯雷的投资案中的行为，都有可能离开红杉，联系之前KPCB等的中国合伙人模式的失败，文章反思了这类特殊合伙人制度的缺陷。

PS2: The TC link above is available again. But some sensitive content has been modified.

Balance

Apple WWDC 2009

To be held from Jun 8-12. Tickets are sold out long time ago. Not sure whether Steve Jobs is going to present or not. Will it bring some breaking news again?

Buy Apple = Buy Corporate America?

老狗

Chanel, world's oldest dog, has her day

我们家贝贝也有19岁了，不知道能不能算是中国寿星狗。

一个杂种京巴，贝贝不如黑贝，金毛等训练有素，举止得体，但智商颇高，情商更是绝伦，纵是白内障也掩饰不住她眼中流露出的沧桑，待人接物八面玲珑，于人情世故了然于胸，常常在一个哈欠之间叹尽世间百态，在余光一扫中看透世态炎凉。

有狗如此，复何求哉！

It's just COOOOL

Nokia Aeon

無法松の一生

导演： 稲垣浩

主演： 三船敏郎

如果说三船敏郎的电影大多是有关英雄，无法松则是有关那些影片中无名的NPC；如果说三船敏郎的影片大多是有关英雄的辉煌前半生抑，无法松包括了全部；如果说三船敏郎的影片大多是有关一段特定时间一个特定场景的集合矛盾，无法松从头到尾展现了全部。

无法松自己是一个完整的故事，也补全了三船敏郎的电影世界。

酒

一天一杯酒而乐。每天吃饭省20，一周一瓶酒，好惬意。

Yao Ming = Willis Reed

Can Rox be the 1970 Knicks?

已经忘却的纪念

已经忘却的纪念

又是一年五四，平平淡淡，在香港，新的一代年轻人藉着五四锻炼自己的实用应聘技巧，而陈一谔亦以身作则，重演苏格拉底之死，是真是假，或许比无间道更复杂。猴子精算至此，如互吃dogshit创造GDP之经济学家，可发一叹。

何为五四？在我脑中，五四如现代版的春秋战国，三国，盛唐一般充满传奇和激情，逢此国难之时，旧有体系赖以生存之基础在坚船利炮前不堪一击，何去何从，莫衷一是，正是百花齐放的最好时机。重读五四时著作，会感慨光阴纵然如梭，思想却不亦随之进步。

然今人以何为五四？大概答案会是德先生，赛先生。民主自由，如耶稣基督，佛祖转世，普度众生，在此精神召唤下，五四应运而生，势如破竹，青年们一呼百应，破旧立新，由此奠定新中国基础。此为历史。历史者，数字及小说而已，供众人取乐，有根据的精神胜利法。

我未亲历五四，但从后读来，五四却绝非德赛两字，整个历史时期，完整真实的呈现要复杂的多。德赛非热血青年，而是狡猾有力的枭雄，在丑陋现实的斗争中，确立自己的地位，完成代价巨大的转变。三国中周瑜曾歌：“丈夫处世兮立功名，立功名兮慰平生”。德赛功成名就之后可披锦衣，金盆洗手，布平和幸福之道。

谬论！今人皆慕德赛之功名，却不见功名之路之残酷，不见千万山寨德赛横尸路上。五四之功，不在德，不在赛，而在Fight。热血激情，自由民主，不过浮华空壳，供后人顶礼膜拜而已。

五四值得纪念，但可贵之处却早已流失，不过上下五千年，这又有什么可以遗憾。中华文化不在五四，不在百花，而在人人，在园中真实“丑陋”的土地。百花总有凋谢时，留得丰园待后春。

五四已死，有事烧纸。

Vosne Romanee Les Beaux Monts after de Fargues

Remind you life is bitter  after a too sweet taste. 

C2C cycle

is important. After consideration, I decide to reserve more capital for fast turnover business instead of locking it up in long term investment. 

RP effect

RP finally pulls his trigger. 

Lafite: 98-100

Previous: 1590GBP for 1 case

Now: 3375GBP with 1 case Rieussec(~475GBP)

Out of my reach. So bet on Carruades de Lafite. 

将进酒

君不见

黄河之水天上来
奔流到海不复回
君不见
高堂明镜悲白发
朝如青丝暮成雪
人生得意须尽欢
莫使金樽空对月
天生我材必有用
千金散尽还复来
烹羊宰牛且为乐
会须一饮三百杯
岑夫子
丹丘生
将进酒
君莫停
与君歌一曲
请君为我侧耳听
钟鼓馔玉不足贵
但愿长醉不愿醒
古来圣贤皆寂寞
惟有饮者留其名
陈王昔时宴平乐
斗酒十千恣讙谑
主人何为言少钱
径须沽取对君酌
五花马
千金裘
呼儿将出换美酒
与尔同消万古愁

Everybody is watching

what Robert Parker would say about 2008 Bordeaux. The final quote book...

Lafite 2008 En Primeur

GBP795 for 6 bottles. Didn't get the allocation. S**t.

Death and Birth

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/04/0410_recession_lessons/index.htm

Destructive innovation, that's what the old man says. 

Porsche

"...a hedge fund with a car showroom." -- Max Warburton

History tells us, creating and trading risk is more much important than attempt to "manage" it. 

Dual Track Price for Bordeaux?

While the auction market is beginning to have a break from the free fall starting from 2008 which is best supported by the April Acker HK auction, the 2008 En Primeur, starting releasing this week, gives an opposite signal. 

100 EUR for Mouton, 110 EUR for Latour, it has been years for consumers to see such a bargain (2008 is not a terrible vintage). Although some said they would stick to the old pricing mechanism, more and more top growths hint they would follow Latour and Mouton's steps. Personally, I am very interested in how Lafite and Cheval Blanc would react. 

But that doesn't necessarily mean the return of budget wine era. For Bordeaux, divergence is inevitable. Price will fall a lot even for currently reputed wines. But for top names, it would still be a demand side play. 2008 may be just a noise and the bargain release price is just a strategy to test the market and, in certain degree, accelerate the convergence back to the equilibrium. It's just like what used by the HK real estate developer during hard times, just like the dual track price mechanism used in China's transition from central planning to market ecnonmy. 

Whatever, the young market is experiencing turmoil now and this must be good for all the participants. We all learn from the process. 

World of Goo

Terrific game. Physic engine is the key. 

Irish Coffe

Cool! Easy to make and great taste. 

2005 Quilceda Creek Columbia Valley

Upon opening, a little nose of alcohol, blackberry. Dark red, a little brown rim. Fruity, plum and tannic flavor, a little chocolate and earthy. A pleasant finish. Show balance and potential to develop already. See what happened after decanting. No big change after 2+ hrs decanting. A good wine, but definitely need time to develop. Will revisit after 5-10 years.

Hotel Marques de Riscal

http://www.arcspace.com/architects/gehry/riscal_winery2/riscal2.html

design by Frank Gehry. 

The liquid gold

What are the most expensive bottles for vintage 2005? Romanee Conti DRC, Petrus? For French wines, definitely. But check out this one: Scharzhofberger Riesling Trockenbeerenauslese, Weingut Egon Muller.  

It seems crazy. But TBA is the crown of Germany wines. And E. Muller's Scharzhofberger TBA is the pearl on the crown. 

The new Live-Ex classification

http://liv-ex.typepad.com/livex_fine_wine_market_bl/2009/03/the-liv-ex-bordeaux-classification.html

1982 Chateau Gruaud Larose

Brick red color.

Drink after 1.5 hrs decanting.  Very deep nose of chocolate, espresso. In mouth, smooth and powerful. Can feel oaky, black berries, earthy and floral. A long finish. 

After 2 hrs decanting, the chocolate and espresso flavor peaked. 

After 3 hrs decanting, the earthy and chocolate flavor faded. Fruity and floral flavors began to dominate.

A good wine. 

17/20

Red, white and drunk all over

by Natalie MacLean.

A very funny book on her road to wine critic and several interesting topics on wine.  Recommend

Ghost in the shell and Matrix

Check out the interview below

www.warnervideo.com/matrixevents/wachowski.html

Trend Following

If you ask me one way to become millionaire overnight, the suggestion is betting again trend. Again, if there is one way to blow up ASAP, it's betting again trend. 

It's not contradicted if you know the theory of probability and fat tail. Trend is something so smart that can make Richard Dennis as well as something so stupid can bankrupt Lehman Bros. and Bear Sterns. 

Trend following theory may be compensated by Elliot Wave. Or more accurately, it's just another detailed branch of trend following. The reason why it's so popular than hysteria and panic is because when people need a belief, they need that belief so philosophy, so humane, so robust to trust.. That's Elliot wave.

The experience of a trader would be the learning process of how to guess trend from past history, and also, how to exclude his personal emotion from the unbeatable trend going or turning. So my suggestion is: Forget "Buy low and sell high", "timing is everything". These are BS. I will tell you a more detailed nonsense investment motto:

It's all about trend, nothing less, nothing more.   

Millennium Prize Problems in Economics?

In my previous post, I mentioned the book by Marcus Du Sautoy on the history of prime numbers. Besides the main topic, this book also evokes my thinking on another thread. 

You guys may know the famous 1899 Hilbert's 23 unsolved problems. It is then followed by Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems. So if there is a counterpart for economists, what would it like to be? 

It may be harder to figure out compared with its mathematical cousin since economic problems are not so well defined given their close connections to real world problems. Assumption, modeling and solution are equivalently important. 

Chateau Mouton Rothschild

The Music of the Primes

by Marcus Du Sautoy

A wonderful book, funny and easy reading. 

Interested readers may be able to find his lecture at Clay Institute. 

2008年度名言

From "Batman: The Dark Knight"

HARVEY DENT

It's not about what I want. It's about what's fair.

(to Gordon and Batman)

You thought we could be decent men in an indecent world. You thought we could lead by example. You thought the rules could be bent but not break... you were wrong. The world is cruel.

(shows his coin)

And the only morality in a cruel world is chance. Unbiased. Unprejudiced. Fair.

霸王别姬

http://oldrecords.xikao.com/sheng/yangxiaolou/ly/cc-bwbj12.wma

梅兰芳去虞姬，杨小楼去项羽。梅位列四大名旦，而杨更被称为国剧宗师，这一段称得上前无古人，后亦恐无来者。看不到台上的，光是凭唱段就够了。

　近　侍：（白）启奏大王，汉兵攻打甚急。
　项　羽：（白）吩咐下去，四面迎敌者！
　近　侍：（白）领旨！
　项　羽：（白）且住呀！敌人攻打甚急，孤不出马，岂非怯战？此去必当战死沙场，再不能与妃子相见了。
　虞　姬：（白）大王此去，倘有不利，且退往江东，徐图后举，勿以妾为念也。
　项　羽：（白）哎呀，妃子啊！此番交战，必须要轻车简从，方能杀出重围，看来不能与妃子同行，这、这、这便怎么处？哦呵，有了！刘邦与孤旧友，你不如随了他去，也免得孤此去悬心。
　虞　姬：（白）大王啊！自古道：忠臣不事二主，烈女不嫁二夫。王欲图大事岂可顾一妇人？也罢！愿乞君王，三尺宝剑，自刎君前，喂呀！以报深恩也！
　项　羽：（白）妃子，你、你、你、你不可寻此短见。
　虞　姬：（白）大王啊！
　　　　　[哭相思]汉兵已略地，
　　　　　　　　　四面楚歌声。
　　　　　　　　　君王意气尽，
　　　　　　　　　贱妾何聊生！
　项　羽：（白）哇呀呀！（此哇呀呀叹尽霸王平生，妙绝）
　虞　姬：（白）快将宝剑与妾妃！
　项　羽：（白）千万不可！
　虞　姬：（白）大王，四面楚歌又唱起来了。
　项　羽：（白）待孤听来！
　虞　姬：（白）罢！
　项　羽：（白）哎呀！
（奏[尾声]）

粤剧

就我的感觉，其艺术性远不如京剧，也不如更为类似的黄梅戏和越剧。

舞台布置很粗糙，人物对白比较俗套，而且唱腔单调，缺乏表现力。

经济危机进化论

The Survival of the Fittest or The Survival of the Fattest

一剪梅·红藕香残玉簟秋

李清照

红藕香残玉簟秋。轻解罗裳，独上兰舟。云中谁寄锦书来？雁字回时，月满西楼。

花自飘零水自流，一种相思，两处闲愁。此情无计可消除，才下眉头，却上心头。

恭贺牛年

值此新春佳节之际，敝人谨代表chinesegen，mavaron恭祝各位新年快乐，牛年倒大霉，熊运不断，一熊到底。

祝各位股市的搞屎棍一赔到底，尽快破产，赶紧回去家里蹲，还股市以清净。

祝各位俊男美女天天吵架，生活本不易，哪有美好的爱情，三聚氰胺都不让加了，肾上腺素还能持久么？

祝各位80后父母被小孩折磨的不成人形，若不过此关，彻底顿悟，将来必是养儿为患。

祝各位找工作的四处碰壁，食不果腹。本就是拾人牙慧，什么金领白领，不过是自欺欺人罢了。

祝各位与熊共舞，认清现实，万物皆数字，横竖皆一死，做一个彻头彻底的唯物主义者。

最后送大家一副挽联：

牛熊本一体，又何分吉凶；

悲喜虽两极，却皆由人定；

横批： 和谐社会

2009

谁赚不到钱就是棒槌

梅兰芳

看了陈凯歌的梅兰芳，回想中国最近几十年导演的代表人物，张艺谋，陈凯歌，贾樟柯，各有各的风格。

看看域名注册如何SB

shabi.me=> 已被注册

Moon River

I have no idea how many versions there are. It's like the benchmark song for every pop singer. Some versions I like:

1. Original Audrey Hepburn

2. Louis Armstrong, it sounds so different

3. Jennifer Love Hewitt

4. Andrea Ross

5. Dean Martin, the real-world "Johnny Fontane"?

庚子即事

- （清）狄楚青

太平歌舞寿常事，

到处风点五色旗；

家国兴亡谁管得，

满城争说叫天儿。

Icon Sets

http://www.noupe.com/icons/50-most-beautiful-icon-sets-created-in-2008.html

Love Me Little, Love Me Long

（我看到的时候想的翻译是"日渐情，日久情"。后来google的是"两情若是久长时，又岂在朝朝暮暮"，不俗。）

Anonymous

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Love that is too hot and strong

Burneth soon to waste.

Still, I would not have thee cold,

Not too backward, nor too bold;

Love that lasteth till tis old

Fadeth not in haste.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

If thou lovest me too much,

It will not prove as true as touch;

Love me little, more than such,

For I fear the end.

I am with little well content,

And a little from thee sent

Is enough, with true intent

To be steadfast friend.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Say thou lov'st me while thou live;

I to thee my love will give,

Never dreaming to deceive

Whiles that life endures.

Nay, and after death, in sooth,

I to thee will keep my truth, 

As now, when in my May of youth;

This my love assures.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Constant love is moderate ever,

And it will through life persever;

Give me that, with true endeavor

I will it restore.

A suit of durance let it be,

For all weathers that for me,

For the land or for the sea,

Lasting evermore.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Winter's cold, or summer's heat,

Autumn's tempests on it beat,

It can never know defeat,

Never can rebel.

Such the love that I would gain,

Such the love, I tell thee plain,

Though must give, or woo in vain; 

So to thee, farewell!

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

The perfect store

Inside eBay by Adam Cohen.

A very good book about how eBay started and grew to current magnate. There are many insights inside the book, like how the founders hesitated and made decisions in front of difficulties and uncertainties.

Strongly recommend.

Dark Knight - End Credits

梅兰芳

看到陈凯歌导演的梅兰芳首映，想起我看过的一部纪录片，"粉墨春秋"。是由张元监制的。做得相当不错，无论是对于事件线索的整理还是对于同一个线索"花开两朵，各表一枝"的表现手法，以及插入影像和配乐的处理，都为整部片子增色不少。

Decode IBFX contest (II)

Pick up the thread. We now talk about how to get the IBFX contest winner bonus free of risk. 

The contest is held monthly and the top 5 percentage winners would be awarded, bonus ranged from $3,000-$250.

It might look hard if you give a historical review. The top gunner can have 300-600% return. Now I show you how to get thte bonus even if you are a fresh hand. 

First, you need to find a bunch of your friends to help you carry out this plan. Let's say you can have 16 accounts, including your own. Then you play a binomial tree game. That is, you first split the 16 accounts into two groups and they carry out exactly opposite actions. So, if one of your group blow up, then the other group's asset must be doubled. The 2nd stage, you split the survived group into a 4-4. Then continue the same process. 

Theoretically, you can have a highest return by this method up to 1,600% which can well assure you a bonus in the contest. Besides, your own investment is not hurt since any of your moves is strictly paired. The only cost is the spread cost which you need to do some homework on. 

This method, theoretically, may not work all the time. You have to assure your strategy can really boost at least one of your portfolios instead of making them all stay mediocre. However, in forex market, it's not hard to fetch such a path as long as you have some experience. 

Actually this gives rise to a deeper thought. If such pattern is public, there is no liquidity problem in number of accounts. Then it's a fair game again. Everyone would compete the path they can fetch. Besides, for IBFX, it's much more better off. That's also a reason why it doesn't point out the pattern. Of course, the enormous effort needed to track such behaviors is also in consideration. 

偶然看到北大门卡入校的消息，想起梅贻琦的一句话

“所謂大學者，非謂有大樓之謂也，有大師之謂也”

照我看现在的中国大学，大师估计做不到，大门还是可以的，不过可惜的是应该努力的是建造心灵的大门，而不是钢铁的大门。

用冠军送别图巴

99年对泰山队来说，让所有泰山球迷刻骨铭心的，是足协杯决赛主场对大连的一波三折，是一个赛季未开张的罗梅罗临别的帽子戏法，是他最后一分钟的绝杀，当然，如果稍微往后看一点的话，那么桑尼和邵克难的绝唱也算一种缺憾美。

9年以后的今天，在一个不可同日而语的漂亮场地上，我们的技战术素养也是不可同日而语的球员们，踢完一场让人皱眉的比赛，依旧依靠另外一场比赛的平局，完成了三冠的任务。

很多人说不该苛责，因为心理压力是任何人都无法避免的难题，的确，我也认为即便输掉这场比赛，输掉冠军，也没有什么可以责备的，不过不是因为什么心理压力，而是因为之前的比赛早已决定了结果，如果不看朱骏的天花乱坠，不看媒体的煽风点火，去看看鲁能之前的比赛，难道不让人觉得可悲？周文渊说是弱势冠军，鲁能的弱势似乎验证了其他球队的进步，不过我看不过是正常的周期理论，鲁能的弱势虽然可以解释为相对的进步，不过我觉得更为可悲的是联赛最高水平的没落，面对世界足球的进步，中国足球的落后更加明显。其他球队的周期性进步就一定会演化成未来的共同提高么？从中超的历史做不出这样的推断。

一个充满概率的冠军或者战绩没有任何意义，正如当年的凯泽斯劳滕早已沉沦乙级一样。不过或许对于今天的鲁能，从某种意义上，它是一个救命的冠军，如果没有，那么面对当前的改革形势，这样一个地位尴尬的俱乐部或许明年就会土崩瓦解，而现在，我们或许还有几年时间去尝试变革。

正如很多媒体和球迷所说的，无论是俱乐部还是图巴，球员，现在更多的是在吃过去的老本，如果说06年我们看到了一个充满希望的冠军，甚至即便对手也不得不承认用那种阵容开创一个时代的可能性，那么今年我们只能说对于未来，我们一无所知，在前面的，或许更大的可能是一个衰败，至于说有多快，只要看看大连就知道了。

聊聊球员，我们85一代现在已经消耗殆尽，除了几个在替补席上无所适从的替补或许还有一些潜力，其他的基本都已经没什么潜力可挖，而现在的他们果真就如此出色么，看看大连的81一代，能说苑维伟，吕征，周海滨们就一定超过了王圣，阎嵩，胡兆军么？除了少数几个，其他水平差得远。大连的昨天就是我们的今天，而大连的今天难保不是我们的明天。

很多人挽留图巴，的确，好像把一个夺冠教练解约确实没有什么先例，虽然夺冠后下一个赛季崩盘的球队的例子比比皆是。不过同样，我也从来没见过一个教练在赛季开始的时候就赌气的宣布这会是最后一个赛季。设想假如我们大败给广州而失去冠军？也许球迷会砸车，球员会群殴，俱乐部会清查，而图巴，则可以气冲冲的回塞尔维亚，去揭露他的内幕。我们距离这些，难道真的很远么？为什么不趁现在的机会，让大家好聚好散，而不是把这些都留在下一个赛季，既然现实或许不能改变，我们为什么不选择保留一些起码美好的回忆，就让图巴，康梦君们，带着美好的回忆，带着他们早已透支的支票离开，为他们自己，为鲁能，为球迷留下一个值得回忆的过去，和一个起码充满不确定性的未来。

所谓的稳定的王朝，无一例外是从变革开始的，曼联，切尔西，巴萨，甚至今天的鲁能，不也是从鲍里斯开始，当球队的下降趋势明显，以及依靠现有资源的可挖掘潜力已经非常有限的时候，何必抱有幻想而不是具备变革的勇气？

未来难以预测，也许图巴明年会抱回亚冠冠军，抑或赛季结束后和康老总一起黯然下课，不过确定的是过去，是已经拿到的三冠，这也许就是大家为什么总喜欢谈论过去，喜欢想当然，而不喜欢未来和与之形影不离的不确定性。

Replicate the success of Shrek?

http://www.apple.com/trailers/dreamworks/monstersvsaliens/

Michael Rabin

I have only one word to say about Michael Rabin's violin skills: impeccable. 

深交所

I admire those who start things from zero. Divide and conquer, this is real fun. 

http://www.chinavalue.net/Article/Archive/2005/11/7/13342.html