Boys, catch up the leaving bull and slaughter it. You cannot make money in a bull or bear market and big money only turns out at the time when they switch.
2010-02-05
2010-02-03
为什么房价过高
我不太理解过高的定义是什么，按照大家举出的种种数据的理解，可以定义中国房价过高，也可以定义其他国家房价过低。
无论在经济学里还是在政治学里面，只有均衡一个概念，而均衡在哪里？中国可以过五千年的封建社会，而美国的格林斯潘也可以在一夜之间从英雄堕落成罪人。
房价过高的问题不是政治问题，而是经济问题，无论是地方政府，还是中央政府，都没有想出能够替代过高房价以外的发展模式，而片面的打压，只不过陷入了一个经济周期的陷阱，没有了房价，照样还会有其他的疯狂产生。
每种现象都具有其合理性和局限性，而更重要是没有所谓的绝对合理，每一个合理都应当是在合理制度下达到的均衡，依靠不合理的策略达到所谓合理的均衡，弊大于利。
音乐
在Bloomberg看到了一则有关朗朗的新闻，
我不是古典音乐专家，也对朗朗不甚了解，但是我也曾思索过一个与之相关的问题，中国千万的父母送其孩子去学习音乐，与八股科举无甚区别，正所谓：琴中自有黄金屋，琴中自有颜如玉。
2010-01-29
China's agriculture
Just read two news:
Contradicting? No. It just reveals the current state of China's agriculture. Many opportunities lie in this area, in particular, on four dimensions:
1. Industralization;
2. Standardization;
3. Better market interaction;
4. Employment of financial tools.
Should Amazon partner with Apple?
iPad, in my opinion, is a disastrous move for Apple. Just got an idea. Can Amazon partner with Apple on the Tablet market? I am doing a relevant research topic and I think it has its chance.
2010-01-28
2010-01-22
因学致贫
在格桑花助学网上面，很多学生的家庭描述里有这样一个词："因学致贫"。这是一个比"知识不能改变命运"更具悲剧色彩的陈述。
我也在想为什么现在大多数中国政府政策还是秉承集中式的思维，而不能做到分布式。在我所看的青海玉树县的贫困生中，很多家庭的主要收入来源是一年一次的虫草，而由于质量残次不齐以及其他风险，一年也就是1-3千元的收入。问题的根本在于退牧还草政策，大多数的藏民在不能承继自给自足的游牧生活后是有很大困难去适应在现代社会谋生的，而这一政策是否有更好的解决方案，更使我感到一丝遗憾。
中国有句古话，救急不救穷。从退牧还草到因学致贫，这里面有一整套的结构性问题值得深思。而作为我来说，或许还是在力所能及的范围内，争取帮助那里解决一些具体的细节问题。
2010-01-17
2010-01-15
A postcard from Harlan Estate
在女神捧着一串葡萄的背景图案上写着一句话：
When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world.
-John Muir
我试着翻译一下：
若人于自然心有所属，亦能籍此与世界相通。
2010-01-07
2010-01-04
2009-12-18
Avatar
Avatar = Dance with Wolves + Terminator + Titanic
The main plot is similar to Kevin Costner's Dance with Wolves. Indian didn't win but Navi makes it.
Like Terminator, Avatar sets new high standards for special effects, in particular, CG.
And last but not the least, it's a movie for lovers. Personally, I prefer to Dance with Wolves. It's a movie I can watch for many times, alone. But if with my lover, Avatar is the definite choice. The question is: Can Avatar refresh the Titanic record?
2009-12-17
2001, Le Vieux Donjon, Chateauneuf du Pape
versatile. show a little brick on the brim. pleasant and profound on the nose. very balanced layers of acidity, pepper, wood, vanilla and chocolate. sweet tannin. with plenty of presentation of the elegance of a CDF wine.
2009-12-08
Dubai crisis - No panic
I am reading Stephen Roach's Next New Asia. Given the recent Dubai crisis, I pay particular attention to what he described about Dubai phenomenon. Not surprisingly, he is relatively reserved, only said it's either a bubble or an emblematic.
This evokes my thought on the Elliot wave theory. Usually, a consolidation is needed before a major bull market. It's the case for Internet, for new energy, and now, for New Middle East?
I can't make the call. If time is only related to people's confirmation, it is probably fine. But can Dubai really complete the transformation, whose magnitude is never seen any analog before?
2009-11-30
Rothaus Pils TANNEN ZÄPFLE
Said to be the highest beer in Germany by the brewery's elevation.
A balanced taste. Malty, sweet and fruity. Long lingering finish. Most important, bought at discount. only 7HKD.
2009-11-28
Dubai crisis - Follow up
someone said to me, "it's sheer 59 billion. is this really that deadly?"
yes, 59 billion is no big deal. the most important is not the absolute value, but the chain reaction and the momentum it can build.
first, those banks, those lenders, they may well have hedged their loans by mitigating to other investors. this is basically the same mechanism as we have seen in the meltdown of subprime loans. like the real estate, we need to estimate the whole chain to see what the burst of the bubble would bring. how big is it? i don't know.
one step further. this may cause a new round of panic. the cost of lending would rocket and the just built-up inventory would be stuck again. for many businesses, this is a critical time since they are about to get refinancing of previous loans. what they might say to themselves is, "oh, no, not right now." if this kind of mood spreads, this is the catalyst elliot wave theorists are waiting.
2009-11-27
A second thought on the black swan
There is a very obscure connection among the three black swans: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and Dubai crisis.
In four days, USD has slumped nearly 6% against JPY. It happened before but I still feel very weird. Everyone thinks it would go down but without any catalyst, how can such a big move happen? During the process, it has taken a break for 3-4 times and then been pushed down again. Even it has hit a 14-year low, it's further sold down 200bps to 84.6.
Meanwhile, the hike at EUR/USD is relatively mild and not impressive. There is no major force behind it. At first, I thought maybe it's because of the heterogenous patterns between the two pairs, or because of liquidity problem. I even thought this is the engine while the JPY is the follower. I later corrected this thought after seeing the bungee on USD/JPY. But after the Dubai crisis appeared, I have another possible scenario emerging in my mind.
Is it possible the major players, i.e., banks, front-run us? They kept parking to the safe harbor at JPY. And the move at EUR/USD is just some pegging mechanism. That's why when the news comes out, we see the trend in USD/JPY continues while EUR/USD reverses. The followers get it all wrong.
As I have said before, there is no way to predict a black swan when you are facing a competitor like the big banks. Their edge is too obvious and powerful. Your experience may help. You may have seen this black swan this time. But what if it's a different black swan next time?
Still need to dig deep into fundamental research or refer to quantitative approaches. A long way to go, I tell myself.
Why we need options
Because of black swans. There is a lot of ways to tell a trend, an entry signla, etc. But there is no way to tell a black swan if I am not a deep fundamentalist. Thus, as a necessary complement for a quantitative trader, option is the best solution.
Dubai is down
Not surprisingly. Many guys are going to profit handsomely from this crisis. They have been watching this "phenomenon" for a long time. That's a good part of investment, like Jesse Livermore said, bull makes money, bear makes money.
2009-11-26
Stop Loss
Someone thinks stop loss is a target that defines the maximum level of loss you can tolerate on the corresponding trade. Wrong. Stop loss is nothing different from entry of a trade. It should be a dynamic signal instead of a static level which is determined at the beginning of a trade. Most important, it is closely related to the temporal consideration. Without defining temporal constraint, it's like to give your life to someone else to take care of.
So there is no such thing called stop loss. Don't let stop loss to terminate a trade passively. Actively manage them and keep a neutral view on entry/exit.
Black swan flied by and I am still alive...
Fat stupid black swan flied by (more accurately, still here) and I, surprisingly, am still alive... Two things I keep telling myself:
1. Always ensure I still have enough ammo to give the damn swan a final shot. So hold my fire and be swift when going under;
2. Never fight against big guys. They can move the market but I can't. So it's nonsense if I am right in the end, but with a dead body. Wait the right time to ride on them.
Seems contradicted? Well, not. Timing and skill are important. Time for "Are you a qualified trader" test.
2009-11-21
The road to Avatar
Avatar, by James Cameron, is a movie I have put very high expectation on. After watching so many trailers, I feel Avatar is like... Starcraft. Really. If Cameron can go one step further, probably we can see Zerg, Protoss. The aliens in Avatar do look a little bit like Protoss. I hope Cameron won't stop here. Look forward to a StarCraft series that can match Lord of Rings.
2009-11-20
2009-11-19
Le Rustique - Camembert
the cheese is great. stronger smell and flavor compared with Brie. soft, almost runny.
2009-11-18
Is NFA helping you to survive?
Just receive an email from one of my forex brokers, said in compliance with the new NFA regulation, they are not able to provide the 100:1+ leverage ratio anymore. This email has stirred my thought on this issue.
The extremely high leverage ratio remains to be a peculiarity that is often misunderstood by novice traders. Their math is easy. Say CNY has appreciated 20% against USD in a year. So if they take full advantage of the leverage, they would have 2,000% return.
This is not the way things are. Extremely high leverage ratio, by no means, is aiming at long term investment. Rather, its primary benefit, is to provide investors to take advantage of noise of the forex market, in the presence of its liquidity. For the brokers, this is good because they can both eat the bid-ask spread and enjoy a decent interest from short-term lending. But if it's interpreted in the wrong way, the outcome could be disastrous. If you ask any experienced forex traders, they would say high leverage ratio accelerates you to hell, not to heaven. Personally, I never trade at full capacity. I believe what Bill Lipschutz said, the most important thing, is to stay in the game.
So yes, it's well acknowledged that high leverage ratio is no good for premature investors. But is NFA's action making a point out of this? I don't think so. Firstly, the big fishes in the forex pond, I believe, still have access to formidable financing power. So the new regulation doesn't make the pond a more peaceful world, rather, it gives a hard time to small fishes like me. It potentially reduces the capital that small investors are exposed to and enlarges the gap between big and small fishes. It's really a bureaucratic decision in my view.
Everyone knows nuclear weapon is no good. But like what game theorists say, the equilibrium is still achieved by those nuclear countries if they foresee the disastrous outcome. It's the same logic that applies to the forex leverage ratio. And now, NFA is artificially changing the rules of the game and naively thinks they are protecting the small investors. It's ridiculous.
2009-11-17
平凡的世界
今天偶然听到中央人民广播电台重新录制了路遥的平凡的世界，播讲者仍然是李野默。
我听得最早的是80年代的版本，距今已经20多年，当年播讲的时候是路遥边写中央广播电台边播。
或许新改的播讲稿更好的反映了原作的韵味，或许李野默觉得自己现在的阅历能更好的表达这部著作，也或许是我有了太固执的先入为主，总感觉新的版本缺少了一种东西，李野默现在成熟技巧性更强的声音反而无法和平凡的世界这部更多的是依靠一种内在情感的作品融合在一起。或许李野默现在更适合去表达那些很热门的反腐题材作品，而失去了表述平凡的世界的那种心境。
这种缺憾美是一代人的记忆，正如当年朱时茂，丛珊的牧马人，陈道明，英达的围城，王扶林的红楼梦，夏雨的阳光灿烂的日子，都是无法再复制的作品。
2009-11-11
2009-11-06
Napa classification
i think it's coming out sooner or later. and finally a finnish wine magazine takes the job:
here are a few factors they list in their consideration of the classification: quality, price, winemaking philosophy, history, terroir. and they have a minimum 15 years history of producing wines to qualify a winery.
they do their homework i think. all in the list are well known names. and their classification may also be justified by each vintage's scores and market prices. but is such a classification really meaningful?
US is a more dynamic place than France or Italy. Though people may acknowledge Napa, Sonoma, etc, produce some of the best wines in the world, there are still too much uncertainty out there. Of course, here, uncertainty is a good thing. US has much more potential than the old world and we are probably going to see more and more successful stories like screaming eagle, harlan estate, etc. Like Terroir only accounts for 20% in their evaluation (i have no idea how they do that), this is usually regarded as the single most important thing that determines the character of a wine. Besides, from statistical angle, many factors are correlated. The factor list is somewhat biased.
Second, is such a list really helpful? I think at current stage, the effect is limited. US wines seem to be extremely polarized. Those cult wines can fetch price even higher than Bordeaux first growth while those jug wines are selling at price lower than grape juice. The classification seems to tell us something that is already well known rather than providing any guidance. If there is something I would like to know, I think it's some guidance on the prospect or evaluation of the rising stars.
I think a classification of US wines is like to score the hedge funds. It's fine but pretty much nonsense. See LTCM? But anyway, though there is a long way ahead, no doubt US wines are gaining ground now. I will keep an eye on those cult wines, especially my favorite ones from Bill Harlan.
2009-11-05
My Forex trading P/L
For the past 4 months, my forex trading performance:
USD account: 40%
EUR account: 18%
Given EUR account had once a drawdown of 30%, I am glad I can make it back.
The number of trades:
USD account: 140
EUR account: 170
It has become a daily fun. Though I no longer make hundreds of trades a day and double in two days, I have less possibility to blow up as well. Lucky for me.
very interesting cyclic pattern
happen to see a stat called google domestic trend. it's basically an index tracking ppl's interest in certain topics by calculating the number of related queries. interestingly, you can find a very obvious cyclic pattern for most of the trends it tracks. generally, the pattern is repeated annually and will have a peak at some specific time during a year. and most have their peaks around year end.
Automotive:
Another single-letter ticker stock
Hyatt is said to plan its IPO now. Will trade under ticker "H".
Pritzker family, the one who name the most prestigious award in architecture, said to own 85% stake.
2009-11-04
US cult wines
Till now, I have only tried two US cult wines. 2005 Quilceda Creek Cab. and 1996 Harlan Estate. Both are terrific. I am sure US produces some of the best wines in the world nowadays. And among them, I am especially interested in Bill Harlan's wines.
The most known flagship wine, Harlan Estate, is among the most sought after and pricey. And even its second wine, Harlan the Maiden, can match the price of Carruades de Lafite or Les Forts de Latour, maybe even higher. Of course, this is fair given Maiden often gets the same high scores as those Bordeaux first growth while Carruades only keeps its premium because of huge Chinese demand.
Another rising star from Bill Harlan is the Bond series. Currently, there are five sub-labels: St Eden, Melbury, Vecina, Pluribus and Quella. Each is produced by some top located single-vineyard. And since birth, the wines have kept the consistent high quality. Their prices are now only a little higher than the Maiden.
I don't know where the name "Bond" comes from. But probably this means the project is long-time and will pay off decently as time goes. Indeed, a good wine is like a zero coupon bond. After a decade or so, it can bring you the joy nothing else can parallel.
Long some "Bond" if you can.
PS: http://www.vinography.com/archives/2009/10/bond_estate_napa_a_retrospecti.html, a nice article on the history of Bond estate
2009-10-30
Forex brokers
When I entered the Forex trading market, there are not many brokers for me to choose from, compared with those many stock brokers. But today, there are at least hundreds out there, and the number is still growing at a daunting rate.
What's all behind this?
Well, first reason is understandable. The Forex trading, like its predecessor - equity trading, has become more and more accessible to individual investors. Other than those professional speculators, individual investors can now play in this market with pretty low entry and trading costs. There is a demand, there is a supply. Comparing with the old retailing bank channel, professional brokers can provide low spread, low capital requirement, more currency pairs, higher leverage ratio (usually at least 1:50). It's not surprising to see the brokers to spring up.
But there are many other dirty reasons as well.
There is usually no commission fee charged for Forex trading. The fee is in the spread. The broker is the market maker and he can live on the spread. In a simple market without extreme price movement and with enough liquidity, the broker can live well. This can be testified from the profits of Citi and JP Morgan from their market maker roles in foreign exchange market.
By registering with a Forex broker, normally you are not pegged to a universal trading platform like NYSE or NASDAQ. Rather, you are in the broker's internal market. Of course, the theory of no-arbitrage must prevent a huge deviation. But who assures you that? The broker internal world is far from efficient.
In the old times, the brokers can be the middle man between a more tight interbank system and the platform they provide you. In other words, they are risk-free in an ideal trading scheme. Of course, in the highly volatile Forex market, they have to do some homework to make sure risk is minimized.
As the competition intensifies, this, for most brokers, doesn't work anymore. One thing now sometimes happens at certain brokers is the sudden price movement. Since many investors will hedge their trades with a stop loss, this information, public to the broker, can be well explored. I am not going into details too much, but this is quite possible. So one tip is don't set your stop loss level at some commonly recognized values, like EURUSD@1.50. Since the broker is usually hedged with an opposite position to yours, the more you lose, the more they gain.
The reason for all these traps lies in the fact that the brokers are also speculators. They have the traders' information and can make well use of that. Even though there are many ways to avoid such conflicts of interests. For novice traders, it's still dangerous.
2009-10-22
Wine Tycoon, the game
maybe the simulation game on wine industry. but totally a disaster. the options are pretty few, the control is simple and boring, the game doesn't reflect the wine industry closely and the 3D interface is absolutely useless expect slowing the running.
in my opinion, a good game on wine should be:
1) take Terrior seriously: this means factors like weather, soil, etc should be considered;
2) remember history: vintage is an important feature of any wine game. also, the historical wine price should be kept for reference;
3) more interaction with demand side: that would make a game interesting. wine business is not easy since the market is pretty mature. to gain the market step by step would be a challenging job to do;
4) bigger view: not only vineyard, but also marketing, retailing, competition, etc. not only in france, but also other old world places, or big new world vision.
2009-10-18
2009-09-27
大林和小林
最早是在一个中国童话系列连环画里看到，今天偶然看到原版，有点卡尔维诺的风格。
2009-09-25
Carruades Phenomenon
that's what farrvintners name it. Yes, the price has rocketed due to the recovery of global economy and the buyers from emerging markets. you can say it's another speculative bubble. but i am glad i am one of the early riders.
a case of carruades 2007 en primeur i bought in April at GBP585 are now sold by the same dealer for 1275. this is not the best investment i have done, but certainly most joyful.
PS:
a bloomberg article on lafite price:
2009-09-23
Stradivari violins
One of the most expensive musical instruments is Stradivari violin. According to a 2004 Forbes article, the luthier made around 1,100 violins and 650 are left. Right then, the world record is kept at $2.03m by a Strad violin called "Lady Tennant". But now, go to the website of Stradivari society, it's said the record is now set at $9.5m on a Strad violin named "Barrow" by a Russian collector. While this is astonishing, the cello "Dupont", also fabricated by Antonio Stradivari, previously owned by Rostropovich, has been acquired by Japan Music Foundation at $20m. I am curious what price "Davidoff" would be sold if it's on market one day, which is owned by Yo-yo Ma.
Kindle books can be read on iphone and ipod touch
A smart move by Amazon. But what if Apple rolls out its own tablet? A Kindle killer?
Path design
Traditionally, a game is well defined and each player has his own information set and risk attitude. Based on this, various forms of game can be discussed.
However, the game itself is part of the evolution. How it evolves also depends on each player's decision and the historical path. It's similar to Andrew Lo's adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). And it's different from the learning theory on that the complete form of the game is unknown. There is not a definite goal to put all backward reasoning to an end.
So rather than mechanism design, we should focus on path design. It's still kind of mechanism design, just in a dynamic way. And most important, feedback is needed in order to see how far the game has gone and how each player's information has evolved. Based on these information, we are able to design the next feasible path.
I am not quite crystal about the theory and its possible applications right now. I will review some literature and come back with more rigorous and applicable ideas later. So stay tuned on.
There is always a bigger game
excerpted from the book "The Art of Strategy" by Dixit and Nalebuff and also is a good quick summary of the main principles of the book.
To be more complete, there is always a bigger, longer and crazier game.
2009-09-22
Interesting
嘉德09拍卖的几个成交：
李苦禅 /198. 蔬菜图 RMB 25,000-35,000 RMB 257,600
许麟庐 双鳜图 RMB 6,000-9,000 RMB 24,640
（清）张廷玉等纂 古香斋新刻. RMB 1,000-2,000 RMB 47,040
前为参考价，后为实际成交价。和葡萄酒拍卖来比，差得太离谱。如李苦禅，程十发，黄宾虹，李可染等大家作品除了流拍，都是超出参考价数倍成交。
一个很有意思的是，价格越低，成交价偏的越厉害，高价反而相对准确。不过这种人为制造的噱头实在可笑，若是zero reserve price要专业拍卖行何干。至于说价格虽会有波动，但中国书画属于传统领域，又不是当代艺术，怎么会有如此大的偏差。这么干明显是欺负外行人。而流拍亦是诡异，如程十发的少女双鹿图，参考价45000-65000，虽较其他几幅为高，但考虑类似的一幅纨扇仕女最后成交123200，应该不是问题。低于底价？临阵退出？赝品？
看来拍卖市场果然猫腻众多，应该很有意思。
月饼战策略
对于所有中国的面点房来说，毫无疑问，一年大部分盈利的要寄托于每年中秋的月饼销售，食品加工行业本身毛利率已经不小，而月饼更是如此。然而日益激烈的月饼市场也难免让不少厂家头疼，一个门槛过低的市场很容易充斥大量“无产阶级”，要打赢一场月饼战也非易事。
求助广告和公关是大家最容易想到的方法，然而这个渠道也是日趋饱和，难免有囚徒困境的尴尬。再者，广告作用最明显在两个方面：一是新产品或新市场，二者在于长时间高密度形成momentum。对于月饼这一产品，两个都不太成立。一来大多数月饼的消费者有自己的偏好，而月饼创新有限，所以除了像是冰皮之类进军内地市场之类的案例，广告作用有限，二来中秋时间短，短短一两个月的时间很难形成momentum。
排除纯技术因素，这里说几个月饼战策略：
1. 采用礼券：
这个已经是大众趋势，不光是在月饼行业。好处是方便，产品选择广泛，质量来源有保证，月饼厂商利用此种策略，不但可以有效的避免消费者对于月饼这类有特殊期限产品的担忧，还可以灵活的进行促销打折。
基于这一策略，可以衍生出很多小技巧。比如采用跨厂商的通用礼券，甚至跨地区的礼券。中秋礼券的退还策略。
2. 千金散尽：
单凭广告恐怕很难改变一个顾客的偏好，但若此人白捡到一个50的代金券，大多数情况不会浪费。这样一来，厂家莫若做些homework，然后在某些区域偷偷撒代金券。一来本身月饼成本很低，即便有这些代金券，由此扩大的销量完全有能力抵消毛利率的降低，二来可以打击竞争对手的市场份额，三来可以避免明显打折导致的价格战。当然，具体的实施细节以及考虑对手后续应对都可以展开讨论。诚如李白所说：千金散尽还复来。
3. 提前预订：
这个不用赘述，对于提前抢占市场份额以及降低需求不确定性都有很大的好处。
4. 通用材料：
如美心，荣华之类的厂商，所用材料并非只限于制作月饼，因此也就具有特殊的优势。任何一个月饼厂商也要事前想好退路。
2009-09-21
Montrachet 1998 - Comte de Lafon
Medium golden. Nose of honey and wood. Strong acid and touch of honey, apple, wood and mineral but very smooth. The finish is long, fruity and sweet. Overall, a less-sweet-more-acidy version of sauternes. A terrific white.
山钢与日钢合并思考(二)
几点有关案中细节的思考：
1. 以退为进：
在双方博弈的过程中，若是日钢已知事不可为，可以采用以退为进的策略，留下后手，而山钢在此过程中，牌已出了不少，恐怕在后继问题上会有些乏力。
2. 投石问路：
此次合并有一个问题并未解决，即是日钢在香港上市资产的处置问题。此举在事后，有亡羊补牢的功效，而在事前，则有投石问路的作用，作为一个后手，作用不容小视。
3. 先下手为强：
此次合并部分借助了工信部新出台的钢铁业兼并重组指导意见，此举虽有一定的政治考虑，也有一定的战略意义。通过合并，不但实现规模的扩大，获得国家一定的政策倾斜，以及整合带来的经济优势，其产生的一定的负面效应，或许也会堵死其他地方的效尤之路，从这个角度，山钢，日钢应当上演一出周瑜打黄盖的好戏。
从经济角度来说，此次合并有其优点，但结合政治考量，简单的判断亦非易事，关键还是如何进行事后监督。
2009-09-20
山钢与日钢合并思考
山钢与日钢合并思考
日钢的名声大振，部分源于在四川赈灾日钢老总的巨额捐赠，且不说坊间有关日钢的各种传闻，此举为日钢赢得了一定的媒体好感，或许这也是为何今天山钢日钢合并媒体偏向日钢的一部分因素。中央电视台的新闻周刊节目做过一期有关两家合并的专题，主持人白岩松加上嘉宾吴晓波和一个清华的教授，虽然基调是谴责，但只是说了20分钟无用的废话。整个节目依旧是白的个人主观评论，既无严谨的分析，也无事实数据支持。
收购兼并，如同合作博弈，在自由市场必于双方预期皆有益而方能进行，虽然有研究表明大多数事后效果远未达预期。对于钢铁类的资源企业而言，收购兼并所带来的好处，无非以下几条：产能扩大带来的政府政策方面的扶持；由于合并产生的产能限额再优化；由于规模效应带来的议价优势；由于合并带来的共同业务的精简。
逐条分析，当前来说，似乎除了政府方面的考虑，其他方面并无明显的优势。对于产能的调整现阶段根本不需要收购兼并来实施，而相反的是恐怕这个会成为政府主导此次合并的一张王牌。议价谈判，结合中钢协最近的表现，此举更是空中楼阁，而精简优化，从之前的联合的莱钢济钢来看，更是没影的事。一言以蔽之，一切的美景，都是嘴说出来的。
回顾这一合并的过程，有两点最为人诟病，一是政府主导，作为上市公司，似乎没人提到莱钢济钢其他股东权益在这一行为的体现，更多得到照顾的是本已经地位尴尬的政府机关山东冶金总公司，如此行为，恐怕对将来的投资者信心会有不利影响；第二，在媒体的报道中，整个合并过程似乎是拉郎配，在经济形势转好的今天，日钢有资格待价而沽，“和谐”的合并造成的国进民退是当前媒体所不愿意看到的。
合并以后的大山钢并非一路平坦，一来经济形势难料，如果经济下行，则日钢反而成为包袱。二者管理堪忧，这次合并造成的人心不和会对将来的企业管理留下后遗症。第三，即便是政府行为，如何协调地方和省级财政的关系，第四，市场多变，小钢铁企业相比大型钢企，具备灵活性和准确的市场定位，消灭小型钢企，降低市场灵活度，与整体经济无益，而且反而使之成为国家的包袱，再说将来若再出现这种情况，再如何应对。
企业具备相当的容错性，新山钢虽然不会出现瞬间崩盘的危险，但其中产生的不职业，不负责却值得警惕，任何产业，怎能求助于简单的规模扩大，依此遗留下的问题，又如何进行问责。不过从另一个可能来说，从执行力来说，此次合并恐怕不会产生实质影响，为了赶时间的仓促合并其中难免各方利益的妥协，留有颇多后手，合并一事的主导者手中牌恐怕已经出了大半，日钢又非鱼肉，如此一来，恐有大山钢之名而无其之实。整个行为，到最后于实体经济活动无影响，而只是政治行为和某小部分人利益的提升。
2009-08-25
One Billion Customers
By James McGregor.
A very penetrating book. The description of how systems work in China is precise and insightful. The only pity is the book focuses only on business side.
2009-08-22
The Jefferson's Bottles
It seems the notorious topic has been revoked once again. Check out the NYTimes article :
I have read the book "The billionaire's vinegar" before I had some knowledge about wine. And then got to know MB (a.k.a. Michael Broadbent). He seems to enjoy an impeccable reputation in wine society. So personally, I think MB has no incentive to be involved in the "crime" even probablistically it's possible and econonmically, he could have done that. He could well claim that he just sticked to his own principles even those principles can easily put a person into an embarassing position under the current law-based, instead of conscience-based, society.
Actually, this issue becomes so complicated that no final judgment is able to cover all. A law suit is aiming at addressing this problem from an economic angle which has been tried but failed before. But first, it involves with several secret issues that remained unchallenged in high-end market. After all, credit and trust are the default assumptions in such market. If they arebroken, hard to say if it's good. Second, even from economic angle, those buyers, sellers, auction house, even those doubters like Mr. Wallace, are well benefited. So what's the point of a final judgment? It serves no so-called justice purpose but only economic drives of the same greedy people.
2009-08-21
Wine Price
Happened to read a NYTimes 1992 article, some excerpt:
'In Bordeaux, Peter Sichel of the Maison Sichel negociant said that the average price per bottle for top Bordeaux wines fell to 160 francs (about $33.50 at current exchange rates) for the 1991 vintage, from 205 francs ($43) for the 1990.
This sharp drop, after several years of mounting prices, partly reflected the fact that the 1990 vintage is widely regarded as superior. But in part, Mr. Sichel said, "it showed that the bubble has burst." '
Now, it's not surprised to see a good vintage of any top Bordeaux sold for ~$400. In other words, in the 17-year period, by its dollar value, that interprets into a rough compound annual return rate 15%.
2009-08-19
Reforming en primeur by Live-Ex
http://liv-ex.typepad.com/livex_fine_wine_market_bl/2009/05/reforming-en-primeur.html
I agree that a registration system will facilitate the trading but I doubt it really has any effect before physical delivery. Actually, the multi-layer system currently existent in wine market may well buffer this functionality.
About the transparency, still, the problem is even you know the supply, you have no idea about the demand.
After all, if wine becomes just a number game like stocks, then much of the fun is lost. Although the proposal is good, it will hardly get any progress any time soon. Those who would like to adopt it usually don't need En Primeurs, and those who release En Primeurs, wouldn't feel much incentive to realize such a system in the not-so-fierce game.
2009-08-08
Veranda Cabernet/Carmenere 2007
A really good wine. Has it all just a little bit thin. Just 10 dollars at ParknShop.
Win the Best Red Blend at 6th Annual Wines of Chile Awards:
2009-08-06
The prototype of Chef Gusteau in Ratatouille?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Loiseau
Excerpt from Wikipedia:
"In February 2003, a prominent French chef, Bernard Loiseau, committed suicide after his widely-admired restaurant Côte d'Or in Saulieu was downgraded by the Gault Millau from 19 to 17 points. At the same time a downgrade by Michelin from three to two stars had been rumoured, but was not done and a denial had been issued to the press. Doubt has been placed on this story since, according to Gault Millau, the chef was aware of the downgrade in advance and looking forward to the challenge."
2009-07-22
Faustino Winery
By Sir Norman Foster.
It's cool but not impressive. After all, what is a winery building supposed to be? Of couse the first priority is to serve the functionality of the whole winery. Look at the building, it naturally blocks the wind and sunshine of certain regions. It changes the terrior! The designers know nothing about viticulture.
I will have Renzo Piano to design the winery if I have chance to set up one in the future.
2009-07-18
2009-07-05
一个有趣的故事
在wiki看到有关A clockwork orange的条目，里面有一个当时美国出版商出版英国小说家Burgess原著的时候，要求去掉最后一章有关Alex自我反省救赎，而这一章的内容也没有出现在随后Stanley Kubrick的电影里面。
下面是原文：
Omission of the final chapter
The book has three parts of seven chapters each. Burgess has stated that the total of 21 chapters was an intentional nod to the age of 21 being recognised as a milestone in human maturation. The 21st chapter was omitted from the editions published in the United States prior to 1986.[3] In the introduction to the updated American text (these newer editions include the missing 21st chapter), Burgess explains that when he'd first brought the book to an American publisher, he'd been told that U.S. audiences would never go for the final chapter, in which Alex sees the error of his ways, decides he has lost all energy for and thrill from violence and resolves to turn his life around (a slow-ripening but classic moment of metanoia—the moment at which one's protagonist realises that everything he thought he knew was wrong).
At the American publisher's insistence, Burgess allowed their editors to cut the redeeming final chapter from the U.S. version, so that the tale would end on a note of bleak despair, with young Alex succumbing to his darker nature—an ending which the publisher insisted would be 'more realistic' and appealing to a U.S. audience. The film adaptation, directed by Stanley Kubrick, is based on this "badly flawed" (Burgess' words, ibid.) American edition of the book. Kubrick claimed [4] that he had not read the original version until he had virtually finished the screenplay, but that he certainly had never given any serious consideration to using it.
2009-06-26
Michaeal Jackson has gone
You are not alone
-Michael Jackson
Another day has gone
I'm still all alone
How could this be
You're not here with me
You never said goodbye
Someone tell me why
Did you have to go
And leave my world so cold
....
But you are not alone
For I am here with you
Though we're far apart
You're always in my heart
But you are not alone
The new paradigm for financial markets
By George Soros.
Finally, Mr. Soros realizes what's behind his long advocated cycle theory. He called it reflexiticity. In my opinion, better called AMH (adaptive market hypothesis), named by Andrew Lo.
Finally, Mr. Soros realizes what's behind his long advocated cycle theory. He called it reflexiticity. In my opinion, better called AMH (adaptive market hypothesis), named by Andrew Lo.
2009-06-23
Slow Reaction vs. Crisis Proof
投资者心理是股市的重要决定因素，而一个有意思的现象是，最近，中国的股票市场呈现出和世界股市解耦的反弹趋势，在基本面因素（很大程度上是Soros说的reflexity），资金流向因素以外，投资者心理是个值得研究的现象。
在经济收缩时期，股市并不是一个良好的投资手段，尤其是存在极大不确定性的时候，现金是比较保险的选择。然而中国的投资者似乎认清了股市循环的道理，反正要回来的，放在那里也无所谓，如此可爱的想法不但支撑了中国股市独立于全球趋势之外，而且创造了巨大的虚拟经济。这样的股市似乎更符合trend following系统的特征，对于噪声的刺激极为鲁棒。
"中国股市不合理，跌也跌过头，涨也涨过头。"忘了这句话是谁说的，不过既然过头，何为合理？
Hal Varian曾经在Santa Fe研究所举行过一次由agents相互之间博弈的股市游戏，最终胜出的是一个tiny profit grabber，他就像寄生虫一样，击败了所有的trend follower，stats robots...不过最后的世界陷入死寂，因为这些agents是被动的，他们必须依赖于外部的趋势才能获利，从这个角度上来说，似乎我们最终也要回归基本面。
中国股市现在的不合理和当年荷兰的tulip mania，以及美国股市在20年代的疯狂一样，大多是由于其初期不合造成的，还有过多的未受过教育的投资者入市，大多数人还缺乏其他的投资渠道，过高的saving rate也是一定程度上的推动因素，但正如07年的泡沫终将破灭一样，这种self-fulfilling过程随着股市的成熟比较破灭。
对于所有犹豫的投资者而言，我的建议是：如果有足够的机会从理性中获利，那就永远不要寄望于趋附在不合理上面的回报。
2009-06-20
2009-06-19
鱼群的自组织行为(I)
记得当年在清华，听过一个涂小媛的seminar，大致是有关artificial fish的，不过她所阐述的整个系统，更集中在分布式的个体行为以及相关的CG表述上。我对这些没有什么兴趣，真正有意思的是和emerging order联系起来，前两天看一个有关predator的纪录片，里面的鱼群在遭受攻击的时候，会从原来有方向性的自然的聚集状态自动形成一个球形，撇开这里面的进化原理不谈，如何从分布式的个体形成有统一行动，进而产生非常有规则的emerging order就非常有趣（记得当年张长水在AI课上演示过一个herd behavior的动画，不过似乎也不涉及深层次的问题）。
最简单的例子是一个圆形的轨迹，如果根据牛顿定律，要形成这样一个轨迹，如果是一个二体系统，需要以一定的速度在轨迹上对称的互转，同理可以扩展到多体的原型轨迹。然而对于鱼群系统，完全是不同的概念，第一，不同于牛顿的场，在鱼群系统，更多的是邻近的鱼相互之间的作用，第二，不同于单个的稳定轨迹，鱼群系统具有很强的鲁棒性，可以根据不同的目的-觅食，逃脱捕猎等-采取不同的状态。这种状态是由进化而来，但也很大程度上和鱼群的这个系统的特征有关系。
几个有意思的问题：
1. 球状鱼群的形成需要怎样的个体行为，稳态是什么形式？
2. 从一个沿某个方向前进的群体，在受到捕食者刺激的情况下，从个体的反应逐渐形成群体的球状应对是怎样的过程？
3. 如何衡量球状鱼群的好处，是整体的函数优化还是一个鱼群个体互相博弈的结果？
4. 根据你的理论模型，还有什么可能的稳态，怎样破坏稳态，对人类捕鱼作业有什么用处？
2009-06-16
Conquer the crash
by Robert Pretcher, Elliot Wave advocate.
Some investors may find the book a little overreacted and some may find the investment cycle in the book is too long for them to apply. But for mid- or long-term investment, what is discussed in this book is valuable and insightful.
Recommend.
2009-06-14
2009-06-03
2009-05-28
Long or Short?
Although I am quite bullish on AAPL's WWDC, going to be held on June 8, the technical signal is not good. I am not sure whether the effect is already priced in. From past experience, I think I can still add my AAPL position before the WWDC but clear it before quarter earnings report.
Squanderville vs. Thriftville
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf
Probably the most famous story from Warrent Buffet. Some regard Squanderville to be US and Thriftville to be China, etc. However, it's not that accurate. I have no time to write thoroughly on this right now. Will come back to it when free.
2009-05-20
RFID
I think RFID is going to fundamentally change the world in the future. It provides a more precise locating service than GPS. Check this out:
2009-05-19
How China makes money by disappointing the world
在当前经济危机下，中国的地位得到了极大的提升，尤其对于资源型国家，现在不得不唯中国马首是瞻，或许现在一些中国人会“感觉好极了”。
但这种好感觉太过昂贵。从经济角度，中国没有任何理由为别人买单，而从政治角度，这种金钱换来的政治回报不但不稳妥，而且风险太大，日本就是例子。
中国管理自己财富的方式一直备受诟病，现在来看却是难得的机会。当世界都必须倾听你的声音的时候，你就有了创造这个世界最宝贵的资源-风险-的机会，这一点从近期的commodities市场就可以看出来。所以对于中国而言，现在是为自己的主权财富增值的绝好机会，不要被英美投机者蛊惑，用一招”明修栈道，暗渡陈仓“，把他们全部搞垮。
这不会是中国独创，美国惯用此伎俩，而Rothschild家族的发家也源于类似的策略。很简单，当全世界把”希望“寄托于你的时候，买够足够的熊证，然后出来对大家说一句：”非常抱歉......“
套用NBA的经典台词：It's nothing personal, it's just business.
2009-05-18
A good way to short
is to buy short ETF.
ETF Name (Ticker)
Short QQQ (PSQ)
Short Dow 30 (DOG)
Short S&P 500 (SH)
Short MidCap400 (MYY)
Short SmallCap600 (SBB)
Short Russell2000 (RWM)
UltraShort QQQ (QID)
UltraShort Dow 30 (DXD)
UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS)
UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ)
UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD)
UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)
Short international :
Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM)
Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ)
UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)
UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV)
UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV)
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP)
UltraShort Style:
UltraShort Russell1000 Value (SJF)
UltraShort Russell1000 Growth (SFK)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Value (SJL)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth (SDK)
UltraShort Russell2000 Value (SJH)
UltraShort Russell2000 Growth (SKK)
UltraShort Sector:
UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
UltraShort Consumer Goods (SZK)
UltraShort Consumer Services (SCC)
UltraShort Financials (SKF)
UltraShort Health Care (RXD)
UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)
UltraShort Semiconductors (SSG)
UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
UltraShort Technology (REW)
UltraShort Utilities (SDP)
Short QQQ (PSQ)
Short Dow 30 (DOG)
Short S&P 500 (SH)
Short MidCap400 (MYY)
Short SmallCap600 (SBB)
Short Russell2000 (RWM)
UltraShort QQQ (QID)
UltraShort Dow 30 (DXD)
UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS)
UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ)
UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD)
UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)
Short international :
Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM)
Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ)
UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)
UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV)
UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV)
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP)
UltraShort Style:
UltraShort Russell1000 Value (SJF)
UltraShort Russell1000 Growth (SFK)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Value (SJL)
UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth (SDK)
UltraShort Russell2000 Value (SJH)
UltraShort Russell2000 Growth (SKK)
UltraShort Sector:
UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
UltraShort Consumer Goods (SZK)
UltraShort Consumer Services (SCC)
UltraShort Financials (SKF)
UltraShort Health Care (RXD)
UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)
UltraShort Semiconductors (SSG)
UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
UltraShort Technology (REW)
UltraShort Utilities (SDP)
2009-05-16
Turmoil at Sequoia China
没有永远的合伙人，只有永远的利益。
PS: 这篇文章很快被TechCrunch删掉，在少数几个站点还有备份，
大致意思是张帆由于一些"unethical"行为，沈南鹏由于在一宗涉及凯雷的投资案中的行为，都有可能离开红杉，联系之前KPCB等的中国合伙人模式的失败，文章反思了这类特殊合伙人制度的缺陷。
PS2: The TC link above is available again. But some sensitive content has been modified.
2009-05-13
Apple WWDC 2009
To be held from Jun 8-12. Tickets are sold out long time ago. Not sure whether Steve Jobs is going to present or not. Will it bring some breaking news again?
Buy Apple = Buy Corporate America?
2009-05-11
老狗
Chanel, world's oldest dog, has her day
我们家贝贝也有19岁了，不知道能不能算是中国寿星狗。
一个杂种京巴，贝贝不如黑贝，金毛等训练有素，举止得体，但智商颇高，情商更是绝伦，纵是白内障也掩饰不住她眼中流露出的沧桑，待人接物八面玲珑，于人情世故了然于胸，常常在一个哈欠之间叹尽世间百态，在余光一扫中看透世态炎凉。
有狗如此，复何求哉！
2009-05-10
2009-05-05
已经忘却的纪念
已经忘却的纪念
又是一年五四，平平淡淡，在香港，新的一代年轻人藉着五四锻炼自己的实用应聘技巧，而陈一谔亦以身作则，重演苏格拉底之死，是真是假，或许比无间道更复杂。猴子精算至此，如互吃dogshit创造GDP之经济学家，可发一叹。
何为五四？在我脑中，五四如现代版的春秋战国，三国，盛唐一般充满传奇和激情，逢此国难之时，旧有体系赖以生存之基础在坚船利炮前不堪一击，何去何从，莫衷一是，正是百花齐放的最好时机。重读五四时著作，会感慨光阴纵然如梭，思想却不亦随之进步。
然今人以何为五四？大概答案会是德先生，赛先生。民主自由，如耶稣基督，佛祖转世，普度众生，在此精神召唤下，五四应运而生，势如破竹，青年们一呼百应，破旧立新，由此奠定新中国基础。此为历史。历史者，数字及小说而已，供众人取乐，有根据的精神胜利法。
我未亲历五四，但从后读来，五四却绝非德赛两字，整个历史时期，完整真实的呈现要复杂的多。德赛非热血青年，而是狡猾有力的枭雄，在丑陋现实的斗争中，确立自己的地位，完成代价巨大的转变。三国中周瑜曾歌：“丈夫处世兮立功名，立功名兮慰平生”。德赛功成名就之后可披锦衣，金盆洗手，布平和幸福之道。
谬论！今人皆慕德赛之功名，却不见功名之路之残酷，不见千万山寨德赛横尸路上。五四之功，不在德，不在赛，而在Fight。热血激情，自由民主，不过浮华空壳，供后人顶礼膜拜而已。
五四值得纪念，但可贵之处却早已流失，不过上下五千年，这又有什么可以遗憾。中华文化不在五四，不在百花，而在人人，在园中真实“丑陋”的土地。百花总有凋谢时，留得丰园待后春。
五四已死，有事烧纸。
2009-05-03
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