1. GG:
I admit this is a quite volatile stock and gold price may be a little high right now. However, GG is a good inflation protective pick. Its return is steady in recent years. If it plummets, there would be a buyout.
2. BMRN:
A recommended pharmaceutical stock by Cramer. Such small companies are really hard to predict. A bubble? Maybe not. It has two products with less competition pressure and a positive earning will be boost impetus.
3. CHK:
Bet on democrats, bet on green energy.
4. USG:
Only follow Buffet. Some buyout or restructuring chance.
2006-11-29
2006-11-14
About financial models
A discussion, see link below:
http://www.ederman.com/new/docs/ds-limits_of_modeling.html
On the way of exploration, we know more how but less why.
http://www.ederman.com/new/docs/ds-limits_of_modeling.html
On the way of exploration, we know more how but less why.
2006-11-11
Blog psychology
In a timely, finite intensity point processed, limited capacitated, deterministic, correlated real world, blog is an infinite dimensional, infinite intensity, unlimited capacitated, random, uncorrelated virtual world.
It's new way of thinking, but only complementary.
It's new way of thinking, but only complementary.
2006-11-10
Inflation consideration in your portfolio
Look at the US inflation data , over 50 years, on a yearly compound basis, it needs roughly 4.5% annual rate to counter the effect. This is higher than simple time deposit. In China, counting from the economic reform, the case may even be worse.
It's too simple a calculation and world is more complicated. But anyway, inflation is an important issue when considering your investment. Most mutual funds and high return financial products have positive correlation with inflation.
Several ways to add some inflation protective to your portfolio.
Treasury bills, bonds or CDs are basic choices. They are especially useful when you have certain financial target to meet such as children's education expenses. Of course, the target may rise with inflation as well.
Gold is another choice. According to data, the actual purchasing power of gold over 50 years is doubled. This roughly equals to 5.5% annual rate. However, gold itself is more volatile and entry time is more important.
Mutual funds should be also taken into consideration. In the disastrous 2002, the gold and resources funds are winners. Compared with the asset linked, they are less volatile and compared with fixed-income products, they are usually with a higher return.
It's too simple a calculation and world is more complicated. But anyway, inflation is an important issue when considering your investment. Most mutual funds and high return financial products have positive correlation with inflation.
Several ways to add some inflation protective to your portfolio.
Treasury bills, bonds or CDs are basic choices. They are especially useful when you have certain financial target to meet such as children's education expenses. Of course, the target may rise with inflation as well.
Gold is another choice. According to data, the actual purchasing power of gold over 50 years is doubled. This roughly equals to 5.5% annual rate. However, gold itself is more volatile and entry time is more important.
Mutual funds should be also taken into consideration. In the disastrous 2002, the gold and resources funds are winners. Compared with the asset linked, they are less volatile and compared with fixed-income products, they are usually with a higher return.
Correction vs. Collapse
Date: 2006-11-11
Ticker: %S
Event:: Tons of alerts
Title: Correction vs. Collapse
Content:
Look at ORCL chart, you would see a God-blessed stock. There are fluctuations but just normal corrections instead of collapses.
However, this is just too abnormal a model. For most stocks, the fluctuations, often measured by volatility, appear in the form of rally and collapse.
If we adopt a simple fractal point of view, on a longer time basis, the indices are the same as well.
Especially now.
This year's May collapse reproves the Almanac. However, after that, we have a straight rally which helps put DJI to its all time high and NASDAQ to a 5-year high. It's not hard to find numerous reasons to support the rally. However, at current level, skeptics begin to ring the alarm.
An interesting result is when some researchers look into the volatility smile, they find it's partly due to investors are taken crisis into consideration. Human is fast learning. A fall into the pit, a gain in your wit. Most skeptics look back and cite history.
Psychology matters much but not all. As a report has said, macro-economy understanding is lacked in investment companies. It's not surprising for investment banks or media to be so cautious. But only psychological or history considerations are far from convincing.
The market may stay bullish until year end since the indicators are not disappointing now. However, after the holiday, trend would be clear whether the bubble sectors would correct themselves.
Explosion of the hedge fund, private equity, M&A can be viewed as an alert from the capital market. Its increase is abnormal and can't be consistent. The return won't be satisfactory since all future cash flow are conjectures only right now. If this node deteriorates, the circulation will have problem and the collapse is on the way even other sectors are on right tracks.
Anyway, hopefully nobody is going to break the holiday mood before Eve Ball finishs its descent.
Ticker: %S
Event:: Tons of alerts
Title: Correction vs. Collapse
Content:
Look at ORCL chart, you would see a God-blessed stock. There are fluctuations but just normal corrections instead of collapses.
However, this is just too abnormal a model. For most stocks, the fluctuations, often measured by volatility, appear in the form of rally and collapse.
If we adopt a simple fractal point of view, on a longer time basis, the indices are the same as well.
Especially now.
This year's May collapse reproves the Almanac. However, after that, we have a straight rally which helps put DJI to its all time high and NASDAQ to a 5-year high. It's not hard to find numerous reasons to support the rally. However, at current level, skeptics begin to ring the alarm.
An interesting result is when some researchers look into the volatility smile, they find it's partly due to investors are taken crisis into consideration. Human is fast learning. A fall into the pit, a gain in your wit. Most skeptics look back and cite history.
Psychology matters much but not all. As a report has said, macro-economy understanding is lacked in investment companies. It's not surprising for investment banks or media to be so cautious. But only psychological or history considerations are far from convincing.
The market may stay bullish until year end since the indicators are not disappointing now. However, after the holiday, trend would be clear whether the bubble sectors would correct themselves.
Explosion of the hedge fund, private equity, M&A can be viewed as an alert from the capital market. Its increase is abnormal and can't be consistent. The return won't be satisfactory since all future cash flow are conjectures only right now. If this node deteriorates, the circulation will have problem and the collapse is on the way even other sectors are on right tracks.
Anyway, hopefully nobody is going to break the holiday mood before Eve Ball finishs its descent.
A time to gain, a time to lose
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time to love, a time to hate
A time for peace, I swear its not too late
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time to love, a time to hate
A time for peace, I swear its not too late
-Peter Seeger, "Turn!Turn!Turn!"
2006-11-09
Trick of the market
Just watched a documentary: "Who killed the electric car?"
It's a Sony pictures production and you can google its official website. Besides, PBS Now has a program about the doc, mainly an interview of the director.
This is a very good topic because it provides food of thoughts for people from all areas.
The electric car is original supposed to be invented to address the energy "crisis" and global warming. These issues feel like some stocks which are always tagged "undervalued" but still keep on underperforming. The Hubbert curve has been proven by 70s peak. But what's wrong with electric car?
At the small:
It's about new product entry. iPod, BlackBerry, Bluetooth, ...... What's the strategy? Build up the whole chain or step by step by different entry pioneers and time slots? What about the competition with other alternatives?
It's about consumer psychology. What does the consumer buy a car for? What's the cost to change to new products? Is EV's positioning well?
At the large:
It's about the "crisis". Is this crisis really a crisis? What's the story behind the scene?
It's about government support. What techs should get support? Is the government to finish a final push or just break the market rule?
It's about politics. Exxon, BP, Chevron, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, what kind of role these big names played in the story? What about Middle-East guys?
It's about the mysterious dynamical economic systems, about sense and sensibility. How would EV affect the US economy? What does a healthy economic system stand for? Is it able to deal with crisis? Shall we be confident or hesitated to continue going forward?
Too many can be explored. None is to-be-or-not-to-be but complicated. If you are interested, look into this.
Your legend never will......
It's a Sony pictures production and you can google its official website. Besides, PBS Now has a program about the doc, mainly an interview of the director.
This is a very good topic because it provides food of thoughts for people from all areas.
The electric car is original supposed to be invented to address the energy "crisis" and global warming. These issues feel like some stocks which are always tagged "undervalued" but still keep on underperforming. The Hubbert curve has been proven by 70s peak. But what's wrong with electric car?
At the small:
It's about new product entry. iPod, BlackBerry, Bluetooth, ...... What's the strategy? Build up the whole chain or step by step by different entry pioneers and time slots? What about the competition with other alternatives?
It's about consumer psychology. What does the consumer buy a car for? What's the cost to change to new products? Is EV's positioning well?
At the large:
It's about the "crisis". Is this crisis really a crisis? What's the story behind the scene?
It's about government support. What techs should get support? Is the government to finish a final push or just break the market rule?
It's about politics. Exxon, BP, Chevron, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, what kind of role these big names played in the story? What about Middle-East guys?
It's about the mysterious dynamical economic systems, about sense and sensibility. How would EV affect the US economy? What does a healthy economic system stand for? Is it able to deal with crisis? Shall we be confident or hesitated to continue going forward?
Too many can be explored. None is to-be-or-not-to-be but complicated. If you are interested, look into this.
Your legend never will......
2006-11-08
Swap between Africa and China
The Africa-China summit held in Beijing attracts much attention. The big basket of deals is considered to be China's big move both politically and economically.
In an article (http://blogs.iht.com/tribtalk/business/globalization/?p=212), the author said it could be possible Africa would become a migration target for China's current low-cost labor market.
That' quite impossible.
If that's really the case, the westerns wouldn't overlook the chance. The labor cost in Africa may be really among the lowest in the world but additional costs would be highly formidable such as organization and transportation fees. The only possibility is still resources related. Some local processing may be value-added and cost efficient.
Deals between China and Africa this time, sort of swap.
In an article (http://blogs.iht.com/tribtalk/business/globalization/?p=212), the author said it could be possible Africa would become a migration target for China's current low-cost labor market.
That' quite impossible.
If that's really the case, the westerns wouldn't overlook the chance. The labor cost in Africa may be really among the lowest in the world but additional costs would be highly formidable such as organization and transportation fees. The only possibility is still resources related. Some local processing may be value-added and cost efficient.
Deals between China and Africa this time, sort of swap.
2006-11-06
Love's Secret
Never seek to tell thy love,
Love that never told can be;
For the gentle wind does move
Silently, invisibly.I told my love, I told my love,
I told her all my heart;
Trembling, cold, in ghastly fears,
Ah! she did depart!Soon as she was gone from me,
A traveler came by,
Silently, invisibly
He took her with a sigh.
Documentary
PBS, one of main documentary producers in the world. Those videos and scripts are precious treasures.
2006-11-02
2006-11-01
Limit and Market
I once spent one hour to investigate the more than 40 order types provided by IB. The conclusion is some of them are really meaningful and easy to use. But the result is till now, I still only use market and limit.
Some order types serve for specific purpose, like on mkt close, one trigger others or one cancel others, etc. But many are invented to capture market dynamics.
It's hard.
I believe every trader has encountered the following situations: when you set a limit order to buy at a reasonable price, chances are your limit order will be crashed by fast-moving market trend; when you want to ride on the trend and use a market order, chances are your buying and selling prices will just become the resistance and support prices. Read Chapter 11 in "The Legacy of Fischer Black", you may see an interesting statistics. Actually, I think such experiment should be extended from current binary bid/ask to a broader 1-dimension line.
We are focusing on short-term here, more volatile and more gut feeling style. In this case, missing one opportunity to close a position in 1 min may cost you a whole day to come back. That means locked capital and increasing risk. That's why an intra-day player should be very good at spot bottom and peak.
Pick up a good stock with up-down potential and enough liquidity. Check the history and news to find some hints. Read the headlines to know where it's going generally. Based on those and your experience, you should be able to tell what range its up and down should be limited to according to overall market. Then game starts. Better wait for the first roundtrip to appear and use that as benchmark. In short term, you may use that for as long as half an hour but watch out the risk. In long term, you can roughly guess the day move and set a limit. The best thing is when you come back at market close, you will find it has hit your limit and then turn around. It happened to me for many times. Hope it will work for you as well.
Some order types serve for specific purpose, like on mkt close, one trigger others or one cancel others, etc. But many are invented to capture market dynamics.
It's hard.
I believe every trader has encountered the following situations: when you set a limit order to buy at a reasonable price, chances are your limit order will be crashed by fast-moving market trend; when you want to ride on the trend and use a market order, chances are your buying and selling prices will just become the resistance and support prices. Read Chapter 11 in "The Legacy of Fischer Black", you may see an interesting statistics. Actually, I think such experiment should be extended from current binary bid/ask to a broader 1-dimension line.
We are focusing on short-term here, more volatile and more gut feeling style. In this case, missing one opportunity to close a position in 1 min may cost you a whole day to come back. That means locked capital and increasing risk. That's why an intra-day player should be very good at spot bottom and peak.
Pick up a good stock with up-down potential and enough liquidity. Check the history and news to find some hints. Read the headlines to know where it's going generally. Based on those and your experience, you should be able to tell what range its up and down should be limited to according to overall market. Then game starts. Better wait for the first roundtrip to appear and use that as benchmark. In short term, you may use that for as long as half an hour but watch out the risk. In long term, you can roughly guess the day move and set a limit. The best thing is when you come back at market close, you will find it has hit your limit and then turn around. It happened to me for many times. Hope it will work for you as well.
M&A Party
Each day watch the NYSE/NASDAQ gainer&loser list, you will always see some 20% jumpers. Probably, they are not some familiar names. Check out their fundamentals and you may wonder: Is this insane investment in the insane world?
Definitely not and most of them are driven by one category of events: M&A.
This is a buzz word in stock market. Lots of guys live on it, M&A betters, M&A hedge funds, etc. If such event does get triggered, party time then.
The goods of M&A are multi-fold. It's more fundamental prone so you are more sure about the trend of acquirer and acquiree. It keeps up for some time usually so you are better protective from plummet. It's less correlated so you are exposed to less systematic risk than most other portfolio strategies.
But that's not all of the story.
Like all chased-up stocks, you have to spot the peak and trend. Fundamental matters but psychological effect is also important. You may pay a high entry premium just to find nothing left. Also, the M&A may break down due to many factors. If it does happen, disaster then.
So I wish you to enjoy the party. But be smart and quick, don't be the bill payer.
Definitely not and most of them are driven by one category of events: M&A.
This is a buzz word in stock market. Lots of guys live on it, M&A betters, M&A hedge funds, etc. If such event does get triggered, party time then.
The goods of M&A are multi-fold. It's more fundamental prone so you are more sure about the trend of acquirer and acquiree. It keeps up for some time usually so you are better protective from plummet. It's less correlated so you are exposed to less systematic risk than most other portfolio strategies.
But that's not all of the story.
Like all chased-up stocks, you have to spot the peak and trend. Fundamental matters but psychological effect is also important. You may pay a high entry premium just to find nothing left. Also, the M&A may break down due to many factors. If it does happen, disaster then.
So I wish you to enjoy the party. But be smart and quick, don't be the bill payer.
Long-term experiment
Start a long-term portfolio experiment today. Pick three hot tech stocks with good prospect and less volatility. Hard to say whether the bullish is going to end but hopefully it would still advance a little, better more than time deposit, or at most fall moderately before Christmas. Snapshot the closing prices:
ORCL: 18.47
MSFT: 28.71
INTC: 21.34
Substitutes:
IBM, CSCO, AAPL, CMCSA
We will go back 2 or 3 months later to see what will be really happening then.
ORCL: 18.47
MSFT: 28.71
INTC: 21.34
Substitutes:
IBM, CSCO, AAPL, CMCSA
We will go back 2 or 3 months later to see what will be really happening then.
About Renzo Piano (Excerpt from TIME 100: The People Who Shape Our World)
Renzo Piano
The Bellissimo Builder
By RICHARD ROGERSPosted Sunday, Apr. 30, 2006
Renzo Piano is an absolute master of light and lightness. He has a fantastic understanding of construction and the scale of pieces. I don't think there is anybody like him. He's the son of a builder who was very close to his father and very proud that he was a builder; it gives him tremendous roots. The unusual thing about Piano, 68, is that he works from small to big. I had never met an architect like that before.
He doesn't approach a building from the point of an idea; it grows out of the ground. He's also one of the most elegant architects I know. He's elegant in person, but also his structures are very elegant, very humanistic. They aren't pieces of abstract sculpture. They grow out of understanding how buildings go together and how light comes through them; he designs roofs that pull light in. Piano has moved on from the massive machine—like the Pompidou Center in Paris, which we designed together and which is full of people, like a big climbing frame—to very beautiful museums and libraries. Each one is a bit more elegant. Piano has terrific range. I love the San Nicola football stadium in Bari, Italy, which is a massive statement—big petals of concrete that come out of the ground. Then there is the Beyeler building in Switzerland that is as light as anything. I won't say which of his buildings is my favorite. I will say he's my favorite architect. He's one of the supreme modern architects of his generation. He's also a fanatical sailor. He designs his own boats. When we were first friends, almost 40 years ago, he designed a concrete sailing boat. And actually it worked very well.
Rogers designed London's Lloyd's Building and the Millennium Dome
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