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Moon River

I have no idea how many versions there are. It's like the benchmark song for every pop singer. Some versions I like:

1. Original Audrey Hepburn

2. Louis Armstrong, it sounds so different

3. Jennifer Love Hewitt

4. Andrea Ross

5. Dean Martin, the real-world "Johnny Fontane"?

庚子即事

- （清）狄楚青

太平歌舞寿常事，

到处风点五色旗；

家国兴亡谁管得，

满城争说叫天儿。

Icon Sets

http://www.noupe.com/icons/50-most-beautiful-icon-sets-created-in-2008.html

Love Me Little, Love Me Long

（我看到的时候想的翻译是"日渐情，日久情"。后来google的是"两情若是久长时，又岂在朝朝暮暮"，不俗。）

Anonymous

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Love that is too hot and strong

Burneth soon to waste.

Still, I would not have thee cold,

Not too backward, nor too bold;

Love that lasteth till tis old

Fadeth not in haste.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

If thou lovest me too much,

It will not prove as true as touch;

Love me little, more than such,

For I fear the end.

I am with little well content,

And a little from thee sent

Is enough, with true intent

To be steadfast friend.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Say thou lov'st me while thou live;

I to thee my love will give,

Never dreaming to deceive

Whiles that life endures.

Nay, and after death, in sooth,

I to thee will keep my truth, 

As now, when in my May of youth;

This my love assures.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Constant love is moderate ever,

And it will through life persever;

Give me that, with true endeavor

I will it restore.

A suit of durance let it be,

For all weathers that for me,

For the land or for the sea,

Lasting evermore.

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

Winter's cold, or summer's heat,

Autumn's tempests on it beat,

It can never know defeat,

Never can rebel.

Such the love that I would gain,

Such the love, I tell thee plain,

Though must give, or woo in vain; 

So to thee, farewell!

Love me little, love me long,

Is the burden of my song.

The perfect store

Inside eBay by Adam Cohen.

A very good book about how eBay started and grew to current magnate. There are many insights inside the book, like how the founders hesitated and made decisions in front of difficulties and uncertainties.

Strongly recommend.

Dark Knight - End Credits

梅兰芳

看到陈凯歌导演的梅兰芳首映，想起我看过的一部纪录片，"粉墨春秋"。是由张元监制的。做得相当不错，无论是对于事件线索的整理还是对于同一个线索"花开两朵，各表一枝"的表现手法，以及插入影像和配乐的处理，都为整部片子增色不少。

Decode IBFX contest (II)

Pick up the thread. We now talk about how to get the IBFX contest winner bonus free of risk. 

The contest is held monthly and the top 5 percentage winners would be awarded, bonus ranged from $3,000-$250.

It might look hard if you give a historical review. The top gunner can have 300-600% return. Now I show you how to get thte bonus even if you are a fresh hand. 

First, you need to find a bunch of your friends to help you carry out this plan. Let's say you can have 16 accounts, including your own. Then you play a binomial tree game. That is, you first split the 16 accounts into two groups and they carry out exactly opposite actions. So, if one of your group blow up, then the other group's asset must be doubled. The 2nd stage, you split the survived group into a 4-4. Then continue the same process. 

Theoretically, you can have a highest return by this method up to 1,600% which can well assure you a bonus in the contest. Besides, your own investment is not hurt since any of your moves is strictly paired. The only cost is the spread cost which you need to do some homework on. 

This method, theoretically, may not work all the time. You have to assure your strategy can really boost at least one of your portfolios instead of making them all stay mediocre. However, in forex market, it's not hard to fetch such a path as long as you have some experience. 

Actually this gives rise to a deeper thought. If such pattern is public, there is no liquidity problem in number of accounts. Then it's a fair game again. Everyone would compete the path they can fetch. Besides, for IBFX, it's much more better off. That's also a reason why it doesn't point out the pattern. Of course, the enormous effort needed to track such behaviors is also in consideration. 

偶然看到北大门卡入校的消息，想起梅贻琦的一句话

“所謂大學者，非謂有大樓之謂也，有大師之謂也”

照我看现在的中国大学，大师估计做不到，大门还是可以的，不过可惜的是应该努力的是建造心灵的大门，而不是钢铁的大门。

用冠军送别图巴

99年对泰山队来说，让所有泰山球迷刻骨铭心的，是足协杯决赛主场对大连的一波三折，是一个赛季未开张的罗梅罗临别的帽子戏法，是他最后一分钟的绝杀，当然，如果稍微往后看一点的话，那么桑尼和邵克难的绝唱也算一种缺憾美。

9年以后的今天，在一个不可同日而语的漂亮场地上，我们的技战术素养也是不可同日而语的球员们，踢完一场让人皱眉的比赛，依旧依靠另外一场比赛的平局，完成了三冠的任务。

很多人说不该苛责，因为心理压力是任何人都无法避免的难题，的确，我也认为即便输掉这场比赛，输掉冠军，也没有什么可以责备的，不过不是因为什么心理压力，而是因为之前的比赛早已决定了结果，如果不看朱骏的天花乱坠，不看媒体的煽风点火，去看看鲁能之前的比赛，难道不让人觉得可悲？周文渊说是弱势冠军，鲁能的弱势似乎验证了其他球队的进步，不过我看不过是正常的周期理论，鲁能的弱势虽然可以解释为相对的进步，不过我觉得更为可悲的是联赛最高水平的没落，面对世界足球的进步，中国足球的落后更加明显。其他球队的周期性进步就一定会演化成未来的共同提高么？从中超的历史做不出这样的推断。

一个充满概率的冠军或者战绩没有任何意义，正如当年的凯泽斯劳滕早已沉沦乙级一样。不过或许对于今天的鲁能，从某种意义上，它是一个救命的冠军，如果没有，那么面对当前的改革形势，这样一个地位尴尬的俱乐部或许明年就会土崩瓦解，而现在，我们或许还有几年时间去尝试变革。

正如很多媒体和球迷所说的，无论是俱乐部还是图巴，球员，现在更多的是在吃过去的老本，如果说06年我们看到了一个充满希望的冠军，甚至即便对手也不得不承认用那种阵容开创一个时代的可能性，那么今年我们只能说对于未来，我们一无所知，在前面的，或许更大的可能是一个衰败，至于说有多快，只要看看大连就知道了。

聊聊球员，我们85一代现在已经消耗殆尽，除了几个在替补席上无所适从的替补或许还有一些潜力，其他的基本都已经没什么潜力可挖，而现在的他们果真就如此出色么，看看大连的81一代，能说苑维伟，吕征，周海滨们就一定超过了王圣，阎嵩，胡兆军么？除了少数几个，其他水平差得远。大连的昨天就是我们的今天，而大连的今天难保不是我们的明天。

很多人挽留图巴，的确，好像把一个夺冠教练解约确实没有什么先例，虽然夺冠后下一个赛季崩盘的球队的例子比比皆是。不过同样，我也从来没见过一个教练在赛季开始的时候就赌气的宣布这会是最后一个赛季。设想假如我们大败给广州而失去冠军？也许球迷会砸车，球员会群殴，俱乐部会清查，而图巴，则可以气冲冲的回塞尔维亚，去揭露他的内幕。我们距离这些，难道真的很远么？为什么不趁现在的机会，让大家好聚好散，而不是把这些都留在下一个赛季，既然现实或许不能改变，我们为什么不选择保留一些起码美好的回忆，就让图巴，康梦君们，带着美好的回忆，带着他们早已透支的支票离开，为他们自己，为鲁能，为球迷留下一个值得回忆的过去，和一个起码充满不确定性的未来。

所谓的稳定的王朝，无一例外是从变革开始的，曼联，切尔西，巴萨，甚至今天的鲁能，不也是从鲍里斯开始，当球队的下降趋势明显，以及依靠现有资源的可挖掘潜力已经非常有限的时候，何必抱有幻想而不是具备变革的勇气？

未来难以预测，也许图巴明年会抱回亚冠冠军，抑或赛季结束后和康老总一起黯然下课，不过确定的是过去，是已经拿到的三冠，这也许就是大家为什么总喜欢谈论过去，喜欢想当然，而不喜欢未来和与之形影不离的不确定性。

Replicate the success of Shrek?

http://www.apple.com/trailers/dreamworks/monstersvsaliens/

Michael Rabin

I have only one word to say about Michael Rabin's violin skills: impeccable. 

深交所

I admire those who start things from zero. Divide and conquer, this is real fun. 

http://www.chinavalue.net/Article/Archive/2005/11/7/13342.html

打油诗

一杯茶，一包烟，一支烂股盯半天

一分钱，一份闲，一批散户套半年

Rounding tricks

number theory day. another problem for fun. 

think about the bank. their system is with a minimal unit: 0.01, or, a cent. So any more decimal places would be rounded using the most common rule: 0-4, round down; 5-9, round up. 

so think about the following two scenarios:

1. Bank lends 0.1 to A, charging 6.31% annually. This 0.1 comes from two resources, a 0.05 deposit from B and the left 0.05 deposit from C. The deposit rate, for simplicity, also assumed to be 6.31%. Then what would be left in the bank after one year?

Not zero. The correct answer would be: (RND means round the number)

RND{ 0.1 * ( 1 + 6.31% ) } - 2 * RND{ 0.05 * ( 1 + 6.31% ) } = 0.11 - 2 * 0.05 = 0.01 

Well, you can say it's trivial. Who would give a damn to the 1 cent, especially for the bank. So let's see another example:

2. You have 160,000 to deposit into a bank with 3.14% annual deposit rate. What would you expect?

The answer may not be the most common one: 160,000 * ( 1 + 3.14% ) = 165,024. Let me show you another trick.

You split your money into pieces each with identical amount: 0.16. So for each piece, the finaly amount after a year would be RND{ 0.16 * ( 1 + 3.14% ) } = 0.17. Thus you would get 0.17 * 10^6 = 170,000. Compared with previous 165,024. An extra 4,976 is in your pocket. And that equals to a 6.25% annual rate. 

Of course, there are many limits in the bank. And my example is not to teach you to arbitrage, but to show you how a badly designed system could damage. 

I won't bother to explain the math after the two examples. Just for fun. 

Little problem for fun

just watched a video talking about Euler and his works. so post a little problem for fun in memory of this great mathematician. 

given a series of digits within {0,1,...,9} and operators to be taken in {+,-,*,/}. you can use () to change order arbitrarily. the ultimate goal is to form an equality between the left and right sides. 

a few examples:

22 => 2=2

235 => 2+3=5

4221 => 4/(2+2)=1

rules:

1. there must be one and only one operator between two consecutive digits. so 4*6=24 is illegal. 

2. there might be multiple some equalities, like 2221 => 2/2=2-1, 2-2/2=1. it's ok. as long as you can find one. still count as one.  

so here comes the problem. given a 2-digit pair, of course there are only 10 such equalities. then what about 3-digit, 4-digit, 5-digit? and what about 100-digit? how many serials we can find such equalities?

just a problem for fun. anyone who sends the answer (with a reasonable logic other than brute force) will win a good gift.

thanks for playing. 

Oh, man, it's so funny

Decode IBFX contest (I)

IBFX is holding a contest for its mini account which requires a min 250 deposit. The contest is calculated each month based on percentage return. Top 5 would be awarded cash directly. 

Several interesting thing can be observed from the historical results. 

1. The top 5 or so usually would dramatically outperform the other guys. They usually would at least double their assets. The top 100 can at least have a 10% return. 

2. There are always guys who blow up their whole assets. Even worse, someone can lose more than they have. This may be due to a terrible bet on the Friday close. 

3. If the contest participants can be viewed as rational sample of the traders at IBFX. Then definitely the broker woule earn a considerable amount from both spread taking and holding the opposite portfolios to the traders'.

Plateau

At triple point, finally there shows some stagnation. Is this because of human weaknesses or over exploration of my profitable patterns? In either case, time to do some review and summary.

Break, we need. 

Is now the right time to buy corporate America?

The election of Obama may not appear as beautiful as it seems. Too many and too chaotic expectations are put on him. But from another angle, as the old wall street saying goes, timing is everything. Obama knows this well. There is still room for the downside of American economy. But waiting for another 4 years probably would cost his opportunity to become Roosevelt. Risk is there, but the reward is pretty lucrative.

If we view the election as trading, then it's just a game that you can only access at limited openings. What's more, your opponent would only make you more risk seeking.

It's not the right time to buy America now. But for Obama, I would say he is lucky to be chosen at this historical time.

A simple explanation of the 5% rule

Many asked me about the 5% rule I said in previous post. Let's get some clue from simple examples.

In short, this is just some analogous version of the notorious doubling strategy used in option trading. In forex market, there could be some sudden move which is highly unpredictable and contradicted to long-term trend. Mostly, such move would be controlled within 2% range, which, take EUR/USD as example, is some 200-250 pips move. That is to say, given a 100 margin ratio, you are going to be eliminated if your position is over half of your asset (I mean the margin you use). What's more important is such move usually happens in less than 5 minutes, maybe without even a look back. For guys like me who can't concentrate on the market all the time, such move is deadly.

So taken the famous Fibonacci rule, there might be a 30% correction before next major move. So make it safe, let's say 20%. Then if we assume you only buy before the move and at the bottom of the move, an asset allocation about 1:4 would be appropriate. Still in pursuit of simpleness, let's just divide it by two to reflect your risk attitude. That's 5%.

Of course this analysis is too naive. In practice there are tons of variations to reflect your own strategy and risk tolerance. For me, I would use a 1% per trade at most. And what's more important than this in trading is some other principles like strict stop loss, macro analysis, etc. Anyway, the risk control of this means should be appriaciated.

Probabilistic trader

All investment books will tell you some methods to make you a millionaire. But everybody knows this is not the truth. Logically, this is for sure in terms of real money. But this may also been explained by adaptive market hypothesis.

A trader will create self-autocorrelation by taking his past trading record into consideration. A loss will turn him into hesitation at another several trades. This implicitly creates the resonance, which can be described as some emerging order as in Strogatz's "SYNC".

Such resonance has a tendency to eliminate any profitable short term trading patterns. That's why trending following is so popular. Finally we need some external stimulus to support our speculation.

Double in Two Days

This post is to memorize the doubling of my trading asset in two days, first time in my trading life. What's good is this is achieved with strict risk control and without a single crazy bet. Is this a signal that my up trend has begun or just the peak of another cycle? Let's wait and see.

At least I am going to have a happy weekend. Thank you, Mr. Depression.

Trading

Currency trading is pretty much alike real life. Any time, only risk at most 5%, or say, release 5% of your temper. Or else, there is great risk to ruin yourself.

Remember what Lipschutz says, don't be shaken out by noise.

谢晋

Death of a director, gone the memory of a generation.

Fischer Black and the revolutionary idea of finance

A terrific biography of Fischer Black. Highly recommend to those who want to have a taste of development of modern economic theories.

Best time in 40 years

Looking back at history, all turmoils are perfect materials for great movies, books, ideas and reforms. Can't wait to see them.

The final bullet

The life as a trader, it seems you are always waiting, no matter how successful you have been, for the final black bullet that will catch you, and catch you hard.

Just don't forget to smile when you fall down.

Chimay Triple

Golden color and fruity aroma.

black swan redemption

black swan redemption

for day
for night
i'm praying
for the sacred redemption

redemption comes
just as seldom as
appearance of black swan

black swans stroll around
frequent and unperceived

since we are
are busy praying
for appearance of
the black swan

Michael Nyman

Amazing Grace

Leann Rimes - Amazing Grace

this version is a little bit overdone....

越人歌

今夕何夕兮？搴舟中流。
今日何日兮？得与王子同舟。
蒙羞被好兮，不訾诟耻。
心几顽而不绝兮，得知王子。
山有木兮木有枝，心说君兮君不知。

Duvel

The best foam I've ever seen. And incredible taste. Highly recommend.

Chimay Trappist

Taste its Bleu today. A wonderful ale. Very complex flavor. Even better than Newcastle. Prepare to begin my Belgian beer tour.

Check out this guy

http://www2.tepper.cmu.edu/afs/andrew/gsia/meltzer/

Trend is your friend

Pitbull

by Martin Schwartz

An intraday trader who reminds me of myself. Thanks to his big mouth, we can see the pros and cons to be an intraday trader. Besides that, no much useful information is provided.

What remains unchanged since the very first day of financial world is people's desires

"After I decided to make markets a career, I realized that mass psychology is what they're all about."
- Robert Prechter

My 400th book

checked out from CU lib, happens to be Andrew Lo's "Hedge funds".

Feed the money cow

Just find a good Microsoft Outlook plug-in Xobni. It's another business model for start-ups. Create the suitable "food" for cash abundant magnates and wait to be preyed.

Way of the turtle

by Curtis Faith.

The cover of this book is a little too fancy which makes me think it's just another bluffing popular reading. However, as I go through the details, I find my rash judgment almost let me miss a great piece.

To be frank, this book doesn't provide too many practical skills. But what Curtis tells is enough for any reader to figure out many reasonable trading rules. Those general principles also avoid the "overoptimization" problem defined in the book. As a trader, Curtis's opinions are helpful as well as unbiased. Crystal and objective. This, I think, mostly comes from his deep understanding about the trading activity.

A must-read.

Credit crisis

Happy planet

mavaron's craps on investment - IV

(1) "Stock market is a postmodern creation to avoid communism and pursue full employment."

(2) "Breaking a rule is more important for a rule than simply obeying it."

Comment: What you don't believe weighs more than what you believe.

(3) "What matters is how you define risk, but not how you hedge it."

(4) "Theorists try to capture volatility while practitioners create it."

Comment: In modern world, innovative investment strategies are important.

(5) "The only shortcut to save a huge loss is to create another huger loss to save."

Comment: No matter what situation you are in, stay calm and cool.

Information age

Hedge Hunters, by Katherine Burton

In my opinion, shy to Market Wizards series and Inside the House of Money.

Claudia's Song

Main theme of Clint Eastwood's Unforgiven

The strategy in current market

Pure directional bet seems to be risky. Bull can be hurt by timing, and bear can be hurt by long term turnaround. I suggest convergence trading strategy. Find good pairs in financial, retailing, service, conglomerates and technology sectors.

And look into their fundamental details first.

RIMM down

the call makes sense. for RIMM, the war has just begun. for AAPL, as long as it
can't create a market of its own, the high expectation would fall
short. given AMD and INTC case, i would be bearish on AAPL and RIMM
since i think the speculation is a little out of bound.

anyway, remember to be swift.

Test by ScribeFire

I am writing through ScribeFire. Just testing.

Songs by Joanna Wang

RIMM

hardly remember my last event driven bet. RIMM seems God blessed in recent years. So what is going to happen next Wed? Shall I use some convergence strategy or long some straddle to rely on volatility? No, no complication in any means.

I would bet it's going down. Maybe it would be up after conference call next Wed, but wouldn't be much given its current price and current macro-environment. But, but if it goes down, that would be huge, most likely 30%+. It's about fundamentals, but not all about fundamentals and not all the time. There is big short pressure for this stock. I like blackberries but I could short RIMM at the same time.

Let's wait and see.

The famous cartoon

Powerful Nvidia GPU Computation

经典的电影瞬间 - 10

Grand bleu, Le 1988

Director： Luc Besson

评：
1. 静谧的夜晚，皎洁的月光下，Jacques和海豚同游。
2. Jacques为Enzo实行海葬。

经典的电影瞬间 - 7

There will be blood 2007

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

结尾，当Plainview赶着用保龄球桩砸死Sunday之后，坐在地上，精疲力尽的对着推门进来的管家说道：“I am finished。”这时，勃拉姆斯的D大调小提琴协奏曲Op. 77响起。

评：也许有人会喜欢Plainview接受洗礼的那段，不过那段疯狂有余，而并没有表现出Plainview那种桀骜不逊的特性，在结尾疯狂追杀Sunday，最后精疲力尽的说出I am finished，而随后勃拉姆斯小提琴协奏曲那突兀有力的开头更是点睛之笔。
立足于黑金时代兴起初期的整部影片充满了一种压抑和紧张的气氛，对于一切都拥有或追求过而又舍弃的主人公Plainview在种种的叛逆的行为中反而告诉了我们他自己的一种特殊的行为准则。

经典的电影瞬间 - 6

三峡好人 2006

导演： 贾樟柯

小马哥在一次殴斗中死去，韩三明在乱砖堆下找到了他的尸体，几个工友找了一条船，在云遮雾岚的三峡，在空灵的背景音乐中，载着小马哥的尸体往江深处驶去

评：威尼斯金狮奖获奖影片，贾樟柯的电影蕴含着平静的力量，没有英雄式的表现，不依靠非常规带来的震撼。比如小马哥，普普通通，既不生的伟大，也不死的光荣，但他的死去和水葬却能引起观众的一种共鸣。在大多数人习惯了呆板的各类名词定义之后，缺少欣赏平凡之美，或许正折射出现代中国的一种气质缺失。

经典的电影瞬间 - 5

The Godfather 1972, 1974

Director: Francis Coppola

全片

评：Godfather很难挑出某个单独的瞬间，尽管节奏缓慢，但不会有让你希望可以拉快进键的片段。A real masterpiece。

经典的电影瞬间 - 4

The Shawshank Redemption 1994

Director: Frank Darabont

当Red在出狱以后压抑的生活中渐渐失去信心的时候，他想起了Andy曾经告诉过他的那个秘密，搭着顺车，Red来到了Andy提到的地方，翻开石块的掩护，找到了盛装在铁盒中的一封信，随着Andy读信的旁白，Red重新找到了信中提到的hope，他违背了假释的规定，坐着灰狗，来到太平洋海边，来到朋友的身边，伴随着镜头拉起，在广袤碧蓝的太平洋的画面中，全片结束。

评：Shawshank Redemption里面有很多让人回味的镜头，比如Andy在狱监办公室里放歌剧，比如让Red获得假释出狱的那次独白，但我最喜欢的还是结尾的这段，在旁白的进行中，Red重新找到希望，露出标志性的笑容，一种不是像在监狱中那种习惯以后的笑容，而是一种战胜环境挑战的自信的笑容，蕴含在全片当中的那种安静的力量再次得以显现。

经典的电影瞬间 - 3

Terminator II 1991

Director: James Cameron

影片的最后，Arnold Schwarzenegger饰演的Terminator为了人类的未来，自沉入翻滚的钢水中，伴随着Main Theme的背景音乐，他缓缓下沉，而在完全没入之前那高擎着的竖起的大拇指，成为电影史上的经典影像。

评：没有言语的下沉过程中，Terminator和Sarah以及John的眼神交流，以及最后镜头给到的那竖起的大拇指，足以让这部科幻影片被大家铭记。

经典的电影瞬间 - 2

Wall Street 1987

Director: Oliver Stone

Gordon Gekko's speech on Greed.

Some excerpt:

"... The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed -- for lack of a better word -- is good.

Greed is right.

Greed works.

Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

Greed, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind.

And greed -- you mark my words -- will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA."


评：Gordon Gekko这段关于Greed的演说，或许比Wall Street这部片子还要出名。Michael Douglas的表演也比这段演说词更为精彩。

Oliver Stone的这部片子取材于Wall Street 80年代有名的insider trading丑闻，而Gordon Gekko的原型就是丑闻的主角之一，the notorious arbitrageur: Ivan Boesky。而Greed的说法也是Boesky最早在Berkeley的一次毕业演说里面提到的，当然，面无表情的Boesky自然不会有Douglas的演说技巧，据说这次毕业演说枯燥无比，只是Boesky在快结尾的时候提到的这些话，被Oliver Stone添油加醋，再经Douglas的精彩演绎，让它声名远扬。感兴趣的可以看看James Stewart的Den of Thieves。

经典的电影瞬间 - 1

阳光灿烂的日子 1994

导演： 姜文

结尾，定义在黑白色调里的画面中，一辆加长轿车载着已经成人的儿时玩伴们在开放的北京道路上缓缓行驶，没有对话，只有平缓的背景音乐，生活的差异让聚在一起的他们找不到共同的话题，场面有些尴尬，这时，有人在旁边的行人路上发现了依旧骑着一根棍蹒跚前行的“古鲁姆”，找到了共同话题的人群开始兴奋，他们把身子探出车外，不断的喊着“古鲁姆”，希望得到和儿时一样的回应。“古鲁姆”并不理睬，直到被喊得不耐烦，面对着翘首期盼的众人，轻蔑的说了一句：“SB。”镜头随之拉远... ...

评：一个出色的结尾。情节设计，演员表演以及镜头的运用，都很难挑剔，或许只有背景音乐可以有一些其他选择。“古鲁姆”这个人物设置是英达给姜文的建议，一个看似无足轻重的细节，却很好的完成了赋予结尾多种交叉复杂情感的任务，小处的精雕细琢正是影片的独具匠心之处。

“SB”这个词，是具有中国特色的脏话，对于大多数的语系而言，发泄情感的词语大多以爆破重音加轻音结尾，而“SB”用了一个延长的一声结尾，这种中国式的语音也表达了一种中国文化特有的情感宣泄，赋予了结尾足够的黑色幽默。

从彩色到黑白，短小而精悍，不显喧宾夺主抑或画蛇添足，无声中用演员动作和表情完成的故事叙述，以及最后用一个不起眼配角表现出的种种有味道的对比落差，定格了这部隽永的影片。

壶口瀑布问道隐士

壶口瀑布问道隐士

文字作者：马可 文/李一然 译 出自期刊：世界博览2006年11月 第11期

黄河把各式各样的人吸引到身边，它的名字本身就有魔力，即使被它养育的人，被不尽的岁月磨损，它的磁力依旧，这就是德国人马可不辞辛劳地寻访而至的原因吧。在宜川壶口，比瀑布更让马可惊奇的是偶遇的隐士，一位总是带着《庄子南华真经》的前同济大学建筑师……

延安客运站是一个臭气熏天、杂乱不堪的地方，也是这个城市唯一的长途车站。因前日的积雪，遍地是雪痕横陈的黑灰色泥浆。人们在这里聚散离合，每天都上演着人生悲喜剧。我下了车，费力地挤到售票大厅门口。“老外，老外”的叫声一直追着我的耳朵跑。在延安，到处都能看到美国旅游团，每个新来的老外都得 “出点儿血”。

售票处用玻璃将内外隔开，营业员只是通过上面一个奇怪的洞与顾客交流，面对国有企业的营业态度顾客只能无可奈何地接受。

“去哪儿?”营业员从窗里生硬地抛出来两个字。

“宜川壶口。”我回答。

“最近一趟是今天18点10分的，”里面的人没好气儿地说道，“12块。”

交了钱，我拿到一张小纸票，离上路还有两小时，至少不用在这里过夜了。我坐在候车室的一张红色塑料椅上，把背包放在身旁的空位上。两个穿灰色制服的妇女向我走来，看样子是车站的工作人员。

“你去哪？”其中的一位似乎无法抑制自己的好奇。

“去壶口,”我回答。

“壶口是个很棒的地方。”另一个人说道。

“是吗?”我想知道她们为什么这样说.

“电视上经常宣传壶口，很有名。”

“壶口瀑布是我们中国人的骄傲。”她补充道： “黄河是中国母亲河，而壶口瀑布是黄河最美的地方。”

这段话听上去很像电视里的广告词。

“很多老外都去那了 。”第一个人说。她做了个不屑的手势，“我们这儿就是落后，不像北京，上海那样。”

另一个说: “延安各方面都不行，这里就是脏。我们没有北京的天安门广场，也没有上海的东方明珠，只有窑洞。”

“但是，你们这里有黄河啊。”我提出了自己的观点。

“对，不过也快要没了。那里都干得差不多了。”

“那瀑布呢?”我关心地问。

“瀑布也一样，你马上就会看到了。”第二个人说。

几个小时后我穿过黄褐色的河床，踏上了溯源中国文化之路。我徒步走在高原上，已经不需要乘坐拥挤的小公共汽车了。脚下的黄土高原与冬季午后深蓝色的天空交织在一起，看上去像一幅印象派的画。

阳光将脚下的泥浆晒成干土，目及之处让我感觉置身于火星上。黄土坡此起彼伏，一条条裂缝布满干枯的河底，让人想起古稀老人脸上纵横交错的皱纹。千百年来黄河流经这里，滋润着干涸的沟渠，灌溉着渴望的田地，成为人们祖祖辈辈的生命之源。她吸引着人们从四面八方聚拢在一起，沿着她的足迹繁衍生息。

此时此刻我感到失望。原以为会看到飞流直下气势磅礴的大瀑布，看到成百上千立方米黄水飞溅倾泻的壮丽景象，而眼下只有沙漠一般的干涸土地。 我恍惚地继续向南行进了几百米，走进干枯的河床中央。忽然，几个摄影用的三角支架、超长的佳能和尼康牌的摄影镜头进入我的视野，这些器械的后面站着几个身穿灰夹克的摄影爱好者。难道干涸的河床上还有什么景色吸引这么多的人来这里拍照吗?

我凑上去想看个明白，却听到了河水的咆哮声。这声音果真是黄水坠入峡谷发出的吗?当我走过去时，眼前的景象是我从未见过的，即使是在沙夫豪森的莱茵瀑布和拉普兰水域也没有：黄色的泥浆泻入深沟，注入奔腾的黄水。稍不留神，衣服上就会溅上星星泥点儿。孩子们在父亲周围喧闹嬉戏，姑娘们因兴奋而向瀑布大声喊叫。瀑布各处都能看见警示牌，上面写着 ：请注意安全，否则有生命危险。站在那里，黄色的水沫飞来，滴滴点点地沾在我的皮肤、头发和衣服上。

几米开外蹲着一个人，几乎纹丝不动，看上去是个老年男人。老人头上戴着一顶很大的编织遮阳帽，穿一件蓝色棉衣，脚下是一双橄榄绿的帆布军鞋。他似乎并没有被周围的欢乐气氛感染，只是自顾自地蹲在那儿打盹。不知为什么，这人身上有一种特别的气质吸引着我。仔细观察后我发现他有着精致的五官，脸上充满了书卷气。我好奇地向他走过去。

“你从哪来?”他友好地问我。

我又把我的来历向他解释了一遍，并告诉他几年前我就在一部中国电影上见过这个地方。他点头表示听说过那部电影，于是我们的话题又转到了电影上。他渊博的知识让我惊讶，没想到在黄土高原上竟会遇见有如此博学多才之人。

“我已经在这生活三年了，”他说，“我以前在上海工作，在同济大学当土木系的教授兼建筑师。”

我感到惊讶。同济大学可是20 世纪初由一位德国医生创办的，最初用于医学教育。我知道那个大学土木系教授的价值，他们在课余赚的外快能让月收入增加好几倍，而且，还能为中国城市的现代化建设助一臂之力。

“你怎么到这里来了？”我问。

“说来话长。我是个隐士，就是你们德国人所说的避世者（他说德语时发音非常清晰，这该归功于他常年在同济大学工作的结果）。我三年前就离开了上海。开发浦东的时候，上海电视塔“东方明珠”也开始建设。当时，我的那些搞信息技术的同事们都感到非常自豪，因为政府邀请他们给这座火箭形建筑设计天线。我曾经为浦东建造摩天大楼设计过图纸。市政府只喜欢建造摩天大厦，不打算盖300米以下的高楼，未来主义观念在我们那儿很盛行，传统观念消失殆尽。上海看上去和现代发达国家别无两样，外国建筑师们渴望在那里施展拳脚，张扬他们的设计风格。有很多人来自德国，我就认识不少。相比之下我们的机会就少得多，因为我们的设计过于单调，缺乏文化内涵，视觉效果不强，显得不伦不类。同事们都只能羡慕老外的设计，恨不能马上照葫芦画瓢，以便凭借价格优势打败来自法兰克福、纽约和巴黎的设计师们。同事们好象只对美元发出的绿光感兴趣，对本职工作不闻不问，我深感痛惜。学生们无法专心搞研究，他们对此也只能默默接受。教授们把学生当作廉价劳动力，并保证他们能获得毕业证书。最后，这些在校生都成了教授的打工仔。”

他说到这里停了一下，目光顺着流水伸向远方。

“文革时期我被流放到这里劳动改造，那是25年前的事情了。上世纪40年代，所有的农民都把希望寄托在毛泽东领导的革命上，直到今天还有很多人仍然抱着这样的希望!”

他又一次陷入了沉默，目光在黄土蓝天交界处飘游。“我现在住在陕西。有个农民介绍我住进一座老教堂，那是西班牙传教士1906年建造的，有两个窑洞，看上去很醒目。在我之前，那里一直是教士们住的地方。最后一位教士被调走后，就再也没来新人。当地农民很乐意我住在那，经常让我讲一些有关上海的事情。我就一直在这片黄色的土地上生活，讲述着发生在自己国家却恍若另一个世界的故事。你看，我不论走到哪里总是带着这本书。”他掏出一本旧而黄的书——《庄子南华真经》。

“您看庄子的书，您信道教吗?”我的好奇顿时涌上心头。

“我也不知道我到底信仰什么。我只知道和在上海时比，现在我对大千世界的认识要透彻得多。大事似乎化成了小事，原先认为很重要的事情也显得微不足道,反而觉得那些被遗忘的角落具有更广博的内涵。我漫无边际地游荡在这片土地上，眼睛无须忍受高楼大厦带来的刺痛；身心浸润在山区新鲜自由的空气中；夜晚则仰望天街银河,让思想在浩瀚的宇宙中翻飞游荡。这些感觉是上海人体会不到的，因为自然之光被城市的灯红酒绿腐蚀掉了，人们无法用肉眼体察大自然的那份恬静。

“我不再追名逐利。要是在路上走累了，饿了，我会向当地老乡讨要一碗麦茬粥或一处栖身之地。如果哪家赶我走，我也会礼貌地道谢，然后步履从容地继续赶路。庄子的第一本书叫《逍遥游》,我就是这样从容地漫游着，觉得自己已经达到了庄子所说的那种境界。事间的一切都有轮回，现在我又站在了黄河边上。我会在教堂里住上更长的时间,向人们讲述旅途中的见闻,解释为什么在上海那样现代的城市里，天空却如此狭小,如此阴霾无光。”

当时，我对上海并没有更深的了解,只是有时候会去那儿重温一下西方社会的现代感觉,享受一下咖啡、德国面包或白兰地之类的食物。毫无疑问,那是一个魅力十足的城市。上海在90年代中期就开始经济腾飞,到处都在施工中。新的建筑如雨后春笋般地从扬子江和黄浦江边拔地而起，浦东新区也在中国东海边上成长起来，与此同时，城市的空气也越发污浊。

“我们到瀑布那边走走,”昔日的同济大学教授说，“我给你讲讲中国和她的文化。”我们踩着瀑布边泥泞的土地，感到身上结了一层黄褐色的雾气。泥泞的黄水扑下来,瞬间化成湍急的河流。我们默默地注视着眼前的景象,耳里灌满了震天的巨响。

“壶口瀑布就像中国的心脏一样。心脏虽然跳动有力,却迟滞缓慢，因为它输出的血液是粘稠的,就像这黄泥一样。在上海这样的东部城市,人们感受不到这种心律的脉动，因为没有人愿意花时间去倾听。庄子在他的书中写过黄帝，他也是这片土地的祖先，在建立起自己的国家并成功统治多年后,突然发觉有种空虚之感，便开始探究存在价值，感悟内心深处的灵魂。对了,你知道庄子所说的‘道’是什么意思吗?”

我在波鸿大学读书的时候听过一些。有位教授非常喜欢庄子和他那些稀奇古怪的寓言。

“那个黄土地的国王，”他弯下腰,用干柴似的手从地上抓了一团黄泥, “开始追求内心的富足与圆满。他放弃了一切，将国家交给了继任者,自己过起了朴素的隐居生活。后来他逐渐明白,必须排除一切杂念,才能聆听内心最真实的声音。我们将黄帝尊奉为中国的鼻祖。”他边说边在手中把玩着泥土, “他对人类的成功提出了很多真知灼见,中国历史上有许多政治家、诗人、思想家都追随他的脚步,像屈原、陶渊明、苏东坡，包括我们这个世纪的许多智者,如林语堂。”

　　在黄色的壶口瀑布前，我和那位奇特的老人继续攀谈。

　　“每当深夜，我想起浦东新建时的情景，就会想起那位国王（黄帝），想起他的教诲。我越发感到了人生的虚无。有时候我想，那些残疾人显然与这个快节奏、充满铜臭味的社会格格不入，可是，在北京商业街如潮涌的人流中，要找出一个比瞎子阿炳更能领悟生命本质的人肯定不容易。”

　　老人说到这里停顿了一下，指着远处寸草不生的黄土坡说：“你看，这片广袤的土地看似荒芜，却维系着一条千百年来养育人们的文明河。在这里天人合一，自然与人和谐与共。只可惜，没多少人明白这分和谐的珍贵。这里的人们日出而作、日落而息，只能从电视、收音机和访客的嘴中听到外界的评价——大多是有关本地落后的评价，他们不知道自己其实拥有着巨大的财富。也难怪，他们每天都要为糊口而辛劳，没时间深入思考。当社会总是对他们表面的生活状况夸张宣传时，他们的思想意识也只能定格在表面，看不到生活的实质。”

　　老人在说话时引经据典，就像一位德国教授流利地使用拉丁语或古德语一样。他还能将晦涩难懂的古汉语翻译成简洁明了的现代汉语，看我听不懂时，立刻用德语解释一番。我知道，在我面前站着一位真正的隐士，一位怀揣着中国传统文化而逃离现实的人。

　　他继续说到：“我也曾是个热血青年，坚信工作不仅能为自己带来财富，更能为社会创造价值，发誓要成为一名杰出的建筑师。我那时日夜奔忙，不屑于步西方人后尘，一心要开创中国独特的风格。我是中国第一批所谓的白领，在上海每天工作60个小时---为了祖国繁荣，更为了自己的腰包。上世纪80年代，我每月只有几百块钱的微薄收入。上海发展起来后，我每个月可以挣到几千快钱，这在当时几乎无人可及。

　　“工作中我总像在匆忙赶路，一个任务接着一个任务，工作日程压得自己喘不过气，渐渐迷失了自我。医生说我患有高血压、心律不齐和胆结石。有一天，我终于下定决心，抛弃一切，甚至离开我太太。我对她说，我必须走了。在无数次争吵无果后，她也只能点头应允。

　　“庄子曾经描述过这样一种境界：有限地骑在牛背上，无拘无束地快乐逍遥。我徒步走了很远，起初真的是漫无目的，后来我终于听到了内心的呼唤。最后，我来到这里，来到被我视为中国之心的黄土高原上，躺在黄土堆成的风景中，身心无比惬意。

　　“在外人看来，这里只有窑洞的土气，冬日刺骨的寒风和夏天灼热的空气。但是，对一颗升华的自由之心来说，夜晚次个的寒冷只会变成夏日的一抹清凉。没有了外界的压力，紧张感也灰飞湮灭，天地间仿佛只剩下我和我的思想。我不再追名逐利，而是把精力放在征服高山上，要从高处鸟瞰这片土地。我现在完全置身于社会之外，世界的进步和无休止的现代化建设与我没有一丝关联。我俨然成了一位老人，一株朽木。但是，对生命的体验却从未像现在这样强烈。我明白，我再也不会回去了——也不想回去了。”

　　我们沉默地走着，忽然觉得周围的地面低了下去，原来谈话间，已不知不觉地登上了小土坡。冷艳的夕阳将自己的半边脸藏在山后，两侧的河岸笼罩在黄昏的朦胧中。烟雾袅袅，为陕西河边特有的地貌蒙上一层烟霭。这片土地又迎来了静谧的夜晚，天地瞬间幻化成谜一样的中国山水画。

　　“你该回去了。”他说，“这么冷的夜，你的旅馆可比我住的窑洞舒服多了。你要记住，这个国家虽然表面上千变万化，却永远有一颗黄色的心。这颗心从远古跳动至今，曾经让黄帝放弃了王位，选择隐居生活；这颗心时刻警示中国人要善待自然，天人合一；这颗心仅仅属于这个国歌家，即使这个国家的人们并不在乎它。好，我祝你一路顺风……”

　　他走了。我仿佛经历了一场梦，或许这本来就是南柯一梦？

　　自从在壶口瀑布认识了那位老人后，我明白了一个事实：我就是一个老外，一个对于广博的中华文化而言永远的局外人。我翻开庄子的书，找到那些被这位老人视力为生命的珍贵警句。他和他的黄土地引领我向中国文化精髓又迈进了一大步。那次短暂的相识，使我看到了中国的另一面。除了飞速发展的大城市外，中国还有另外一个世界。

A poem

- inspired by Josef Sudek's Late Roses
Roses are never late,
but love could be;
Love is never limited,
but life would be;
Life is never free,
but mind should be.

mavaron's craps on investment - III

(1) "Riskless is only definition in mathematical world. In real world, every real value is risky."

Comment: Putting money in bank is like shorting all other risky assets in the world.

(2) "What matters is not how good your system is, but how good you execute your system."

Comment: Many said, trading is all about psychology.

(3) "If you are losing on every trade, make a system with reverse strategy."

Comment: Watch Schrodinger cat and Murphy's law.

(4) "Stock market always repeats, in a different way every time."

Comment: A variation of a famous quote.

(5) "Behavioral finance is not a challenge to finance theory, but a good excuse."

mavaron's craps on investment - II

(1) "Over the long run, be correct and making money is good. Be wrong and losing money is ok. Be correct and losing money is worse. Be wrong and making money is worst."

Comment: To be frank, I love the last one. It's called RP.

(2) "There is one thing powerful than bubble, i.e., negative bubble."

Comment: Jim Rogers said buy panic and sell hysteria. Useful crap. More details refer to Robert Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance".

(3) "If you feel miserable about your investment, think about the real life experience. you're born with parents as random picks, married with wife as a depreciating asset and raising kids as long-term debt hopeless to get yield."

(4) "Many guys want to become billionaires by mimicking shit billionaires, but they only become shits."

Comment: Be yourself. Avoid ridiculous reverse reasoning.

(5) "A shopping mania will not make a good trader."

mavaron's craps on investment - I

Let me talk something nonsense. 5 at a time. Enjoy.

(1) "In investment world, universal truth is universal crap."

(2) "There is no supply-demand stuff in this world. There is only one thing called demand."

Comment: Many startups' mistake is to think they create supply by simply producing. Without demand, what they produce is just bulk of junk.

(3) "Sometimes you win not because you are having an edge. Simply because you are able to take bigger loss."

Comment: See example at beginning of "Liar's Poker". I always say, gambling is wrong but everyone should appreciate gambler's spirit. That is, your mind should be Borel set objectively and Markovian subjectively.

(4) "You are not playing with the market, but other players."

(5) "Market is not always right, but was and will be always right."

流量的原始积累

例如attention economics。所谓的equilibrium，在原始阶段，非大量超调，大量diversified agents之间compete不能达到。这正是道可道，非常道。

Silent, Silent Night

Silent, Silent Night
by William Blake.

Silent, silent night,
Quench the holy light
Of thy torches bright;

For possessed of Day
Thousand spirits stray
That sweet joys betray.

Why should joys be sweet
Used with deceit,
Nor with sorrows meet?

But an honest joy
Does itself destroy
For a harlot coy.

弦高

出自“淮南子-人间训”，现在大多只引用前半部褒扬其人机智，但其实原作本意在于后面的弦高辞赏。其中包含的法的本质引人思考。

秦穆公使孟盟举兵袭郑。过周以东。郑之贾人弦高、蹇他相与谋曰：“师行 数千里，数绝诸侯之地，其势必袭郑。凡袭国者，以为无备也。今示以知其情， 必不敢进。”乃矫郑伯之命，以十二牛劳之。三率相与谋曰：“凡袭人者，以为 弗知。今已知之矣。守备必固，进必无功。”乃还师而反。晋先轸举兵击之，大 破之殽。郑伯乃以存国之功赏弦高，弦高辞之曰：“诞而得赏，则郑国之信废矣。 为国而无信，是俗败也，赏一人而败国俗，仁者弗为也。以不信得厚赏，义者弗 为也。”遂以其属徙东夷，终身不反。

US Trip

San Diego -> Los Angeles -> Chicago
http://picasaweb.google.com/chinesegen

100th Post

Theme song of 3:10 to Yuma, composed by Marco Beltrami.

3:10 to Yuma

Good sound track and a good finish. That's enough.

2008 Movies

Summer is coming

Ready for movie rush?

天下熙熙，皆為利來；天下攘攘，皆為利往

今天读一篇Robert Aumann的采访，提到了在Yale的一次讨论，他问大家能不能用一个词概括经济学，Jim Tobin说有，这个词就是incentives。我想翻译成中文就是"利"，所谓“天下熙熙，皆為利來；天下攘攘，皆為利往”。

PS：Game theory是个很有意思的东西，有时间应该写点这方面的感想。

Film - The Kite Runner

从电影来看，Khaled Hosseini的小说应该是一部史诗性的，能够展现像百年孤独，静静的顿河一样的宁静下的波澜壮阔。不过电影感觉很匆忙，场景虽然表现的很干净，但整个节奏缺少一种镇定从容。

Sketches of Frank Gehry

Those buildings can calm any anxiety.

Mystère Picasso, Le

A 1956 documentary. Fantastic.

茶馆

人人都知道家为何物，可谁又清楚什么是国？

王利发　哪儿不一样呢！秦二爷，常四爷，我跟你们不一样；二爷财大业大心胸大，树大可就招风啊！四爷你，一辈子不服软，敢做敢当，专打抱不平。我呢，做了一辈子顺民，见谁都请安、鞠躬、作揖。我只盼着呀，孩子们有出息，冻不着，饿不着，没灾没病！可是，日本人在这儿，二拴子逃跑啦，老婆想儿子想死啦！好容易，日本人走啦，该缓一口气了吧？谁知道，（惨笑）哈哈，哈哈，哈哈！
常四爷　我也不比你强啊！自食其力，凭良心干了一辈子啊，我一事无成！七十多了，只落得卖花生米！个人算什么呢，我盼哪，盼哪，只盼国家像个样儿，不受外国人欺侮。可是……哈哈！
秦仲义　日本人在这儿，说什么合作，把我的工厂就合作过去了。咱们的政府回来了，工厂也不怎么又变成了逆产。仓库里（指后边）有多少货呀，全完！哈哈！
王利发　改良，我老没忘了改良，总不肯落在人家后头。卖茶不行啊，开公寓。公寓没啦，添评书！评书也不叫座儿呀，好，不怕丢人，想添女招待！人总得活着吧？我变尽了方法，不过是为活下去！是呀，该贿赂的，我就递包袱。我可没做过缺德的事，伤天害理的事，为什么就不叫我活着呢？我得罪了谁？谁？皇上、娘娘那些狗男女都活得有滋有味的，单不许我吃窝窝头，谁出的主意？
常四爷　盼哪，盼哪，只盼谁都讲理，谁也不欺侮谁！可是，眼看着老朋友们一个个的不是饿死，就是叫人家杀了，我呀就是有眼泪也流不出来喽！松二爷，我的朋友，饿死啦，连棺材还是我给他化缘化来的！他还有我这么个朋友，给他化了一口四块板的棺材；我自己呢？我爱咱们的国呀，可是谁爱我呢？看，（从筐中拿出些纸钱）遇见出殡的，我就捡几张纸钱。没有寿衣，没有棺材，我只好给自己预备下点纸钱吧，哈哈，哈哈！

Frank Gehry

The Guggenheim Museum, Tiffany jewel series, Ginger and Fred .... He reminds me of Gaudi.

".... He is also an artist. He takes so many risks, and that's what artists do. Artists take risks to do something new no one has seen before. " --- Mildred Friedman

Google earth views of his famous works:
GUGGENHEIM MUSEUM BILBAO
DISNEY ICE

Psychology

PBS's Discovering Psychology series.

http://www.learner.org/discoveringpsychology/index.html

Film Review - There will be blood

A boring, mediocre movie at first sight. But the great performance by Daniel Day Lewis impresses. It reminds me of "A river runs through it". Both stories are quiet, common, but you can just feel there is something extraordinary underneath. This is what you can always find in a good movie.

Film Review - 七人の侍

一部出色的影片不会为所谓主题牺牲人物，反而是由栩栩如生的人物使自身生动丰富

我的幻想

我的幻想
--顾城

我在幻想着，
幻想在破灭着；
幻想总把破灭宽恕，
破灭却从不把幻想放过。

Bill Lipschultz

A guy really knows currency trading.

"A key to profiting from a trend is the ability to stay in the trade and not be shaken out during periods of price consolidation or correction."

Clear FSLR Puts and Long DELL Calls

Clear my put positions on FSLR yesterday since I think a short-term bound may be possible. I am longing some DELL calls after its earnings call since I think technically there would be some rebound.

Pure gut feeling.

墙

墙
---舒婷

　　我无法反抗墙
　　只有反抗的愿望

... ...

　　我终于明白了
　　我首先必须反抗的是
　　我对墙的妥协，和
　　对这个世界的不安全感

一切

一切
-- 北岛

一切都是命运
一切都是烟云
一切都是没有结局的开始
一切都是稍纵即逝的追寻
一切欢乐都没有微笑
一切苦难都没有泪痕
一切语言都是重复
一切交往都是初逢
一切爱情都在心里
一切往事都在梦中
一切希望都带着注释
一切信仰都带着呻吟
一切爆发都有片刻的宁静
一切死亡都有冗长的回声

Short FSLR

I bought some put on it yesterday. My only problem now is undercapitalization. Really frustrated if you just can't do more on an opportunity.

Some topics

希望最近能有时间完成几个topic的写作：
1. Parallel and distributed computation, theory and practice;
2. Garbage underlying and valuable derivative;
3. Business models in social networks era;
4. Negative bubble.

Film Review - The Assasination of Jessie James

以后把一些感想写在这上边，简单方便。

The assasination of jessie james不错，虽然称不上伟大。整部影片烘托出了紧张的气氛，表现手法类似教父，没有陷入繁琐的J. James的犯罪历史，而是用一些代表性的场景来刻画人物性格。

Brad Pitt表演的Jessie James稍微有点不妥的地方，在我看来，他还是适合A river runs through it里面的桀骜的Paul MacLean，而缺乏James应有的沉稳，矛盾的性格特征，当然随着年龄的增长，这方面已经改进了很多。也许中年的Robert de Niro会是不错的人选。

Casey Affleck饰演的Robert Ford很不错，角色的匹配让他的表演感觉比在Gone baby gone里面好得多。

整个配乐虽然没有什么特别留下印象的主旋律，但确实营造出了气氛。

Inside the house of money

Edited by Steven Drobny.

A wonderful book composed of valuable thoughts. They show not only what works but also what doesn't work. They not only talk about philosophy, but also practice and experience. Overall, they tell what is a true trader's instinct, no devalue nor overvalue.

Highly recommended.

The Alchemy of Finance

A good book by George Soros.

The book is not well organized and seems too wordy. But there truly are some pearls buried in those lengthy statements. They alone are enough to justify the value of the book.

Recommend.

引援之惑

引援之惑

当长春，上海，北京这些竞争对手都相继确定了外援，加紧队伍磨合的时候，鲁能还在扭扭捏捏的和大家玩捉迷藏（我不太明白就这点破事，捂着掖着干什么），问题是时间越长，期望越大，结果刚来个外援，就谣言满天飞，曼联的，特别注明是南美的，以便和董替补区分开来，有人就在猜测是不是海因策，当然这也不是没可能，把鲁能全队卖了把海因策买过来也行，不过这样，如果海因策每场不救出10个必进球，来50次抢断，顺便进七八个球，也对不起大家的殷切期望。最后结果出来，是一个而立之年的委内瑞拉国脚，现效力于保加利亚一个中流球队，真真对不起观众。

鲁能引援一塌糊涂，不过也是情有可原。

先说为什么一塌糊涂。

主教练享有引援权，这没什么好说的。就好象主厨统管厨房一样，主教练当然要根据球队需要和自己的战术打法引援，这就是国法，就是家规。你说图拔引援不行，任人唯亲，还可能拿回扣。之前图拔引援是不是通过俱乐部同意的？那俱乐部是不是要负连带责任。所谓水货，又如何鉴定，比如丹丘内斯库，我相信如果之前没有来过，现在引进来，照样会被吹成欧冠大牌，这怎么说？按泰山的打法，难道因扎吉来就能一年进三四十个球么。图拔是塞尔维亚人，当然引进塞尔维亚球员，这无论是从沟通还是说教练对球员的信息掌握来说都没有问题，就跟鲁能俱乐部管理层补充进来的难道不是鲁能集团的人？再说俱乐部，图拔“不会”引援，俱乐部就会？哪位仁兄懂？干脆让他来当主教练得了，不更省钱。引援和战术打法本来就息息相关，一方面继续留任图拔又另一方面否认他对球队的改造，这么做不是自相矛盾么。图拔拿回扣，俱乐部就不拿么？现在足坛那个不拿回扣，这已经成为了一个规则，完全禁止不可能也没有必要，一个好外援的引进会对球队战绩提升起到作用，反映到俱乐部盈利的提升，那么作为主教练拿些bonus也是合理的。俱乐部合理的做法是利用合约条款来达到最优化，如果图拔通过引援的利益不如战绩提升的利益大，那么他自然会让俱乐部和自己利益统一。但干涉主教练的引援权，无异于越俎代庖，由此导致的战绩下降，将帅不和等潜在损失谁来负责？将来如果出了矛盾也授人以柄。

南美外援？可笑之极。现在来的几个确实都是南美的，不过查查老底，哪个不是在东欧国家效力的。为什么，还不是因为鲁能所谓的专用经纪人温嘉庆的脉络在东欧。跑到东欧找南美外援，等于绕半个地球跑到到美国享受中餐，除了满足虚荣感，实际是三道贩子的买卖。当然我不否认全球化的今天，东欧作为原本的本地人才出口，出于盈利以及本地资源匮乏的多重目的，现在也开始做南美和非洲物美价廉球员的倒买倒卖的生意，哪的土豆不是卖呢？不过整体水平的期望值还是差点意思。再者说，好货不便宜，放之四海而皆准。东欧国家也不是没好货，大部分在俄罗斯囤积着，鲁能可以去问问价，看看买得起么？从这个角度说，所谓的放开选援只是挂羊头卖狗肉而已，没有源头活水，何来清渠。

所有球员都要试训？大概鲁能是让丹丘内斯库吓怕了，好容易信心十足的买了个欧冠认证免试训产品，结果成了史上最大水货，于是采用不见兔子不撒鹰的策略。不过说实话，是个人都明白好球员不用试训，鲁能这么说也不过是管理层留条后路，严重低估球迷智商。鲁能这么做是因为信息严重不对称，害怕受骗所以只能采取最保守的策略，也就是说所谓的目标百年俱乐部，到今天仍然没有参与到国际市场。国际足坛就是一个巨大的经济系统，而转会市场是其中最重要的一块，不参与其中，又怎么能说国际化俱乐部。就算试训，也没见说鲁能就因此杜绝水货了，事实证明一切，鲁能的方法只是掩耳盗铃罢了。

再说为什么情有可原。

鲁能是烂，但有中国足协在那垫着，再烂也烂不过他。政策的指令化，不合理性，中国足协不遑多让，不但没一点与时俱进的表现，还越活越抽抽。覆巢之下，安有完卵。在如此大环境下，鲁能也没有一个外部动力促进机制的改革。

我倒期望鲁能没拿当年的双冠王，因为现在看来，由此导致的固步自封，远比一个虚名头衔有害的多，因为我们当年根本不知道为什么成功，所以无论是扩张还是维持，都缺乏目的性，只图虚名。比如和查尔顿签订的所谓合作协定，没有任何实际意义。出口球员到查尔顿？开什么玩笑，英格兰又不是阿拉斯加，要出口日韩的球员早就批发了，还等鲁能。引进先进经验？这又不是查尔顿的专利，那些先进的管理经验和训练经验早都已经教材化，真正的改革在于鲁能内部人员的改进，改了这么多年也没有太多效果。这非一日之功，更不是简单的自我加压就能完成的。所谓的合作协议也不是签了一回两回了，又有哪一次落到实处，不过是浮云罢了。

08年对于鲁能不会是轻松的，可能又会是一个周期的结束，加上鲁能的紧缩银根，必然导致更多的矛盾，不过这恰恰也是重新整合的机会，在有限资源的条件下，资源的利用率反而会更高。套用业已消失的曾经的中国著名企业爱多的一句话：我们一直在努力。

但一定要努力对了方向。

On Randomness

On Randomness

RNG

We start from RNG (random number generator), which can be seen in almost every utility program today. It’s like the representative we employ in computer systems to shows our awe to the powerful reality. And by a better designed RNG, we hope we would be able to predict God’s next move.

I’ve been TA for simulation course for several times and RNG is always a core part in simulation programming. There are dozens of algorithms for random sequence generation, starting from simplest LCG (linear congruential generator) to “unpredictable” trapdoor function. Correspondingly there are dozens of back-test methods to ensure the sequence we generate looks random as well as normative.

But the problem is if the volume of memory is limited, the computer, theoretically, is just a FSM (finite-state machine). Then there is no way to generate a truly random sequence by such a deterministic system. Randomness should be totally memoryless and independent. What we are trying to do is just to make the generated repetitive sequence as long, chaotic, as possible. Anyway, what you need is what you should generate. So I always told the students, the best way is to know the simulation systems, to feed them what they want. That’s why in most cases, LCG is fine enough.

I further go on thinking about where RNG can be improved. Can we break repetitiveness? Yes. Think about the irrational number, square root of 2.

We know it can be approximated by Taylor’s series to any precision as we like. And the coefficients in Taylor’s series regular which means we can express them by finite information.

But you can’t rush to your boss and tell him you just discover a true RNG. Since if your boss is stupid enough to believe you and use your algorithm for some highly confidential data, it would take long to be cracked. The problem is non-repetitiveness is far from randomness. So can all irrational numbers be generated with finite information? That’s a little beyond this article’s scope. Let’s put it aside. The conclusion now is we can’t make a true RNG by computer. Maybe someday, and the day we achieve this, is the day we solve Turing test.

But that’s not the end of the story. Randomness is still like a buzzword to me. I don’t like buzzwords.

What’s Randomness Anyway?

Random, by Webster, means “relating to, having, or being elements or events with definite probability of occurrence”.

This definition should be familiar since that’s what we are taught in probability course. In my view, randomness, belongs to topology more than to pure numbers (of course you can say all mathematics can be cracked down to number theory). It not only is some gift from observation, but also has been widely applied in practices. The jump from deterministic number to functional can bring many unexpected and surprising benefit.

History repeats but never in the same way. Paul Samuelson once nicely put it in this way: we have only one sample of history. We are living in a world we don’t know completely. Even someone declares the world is deterministic, it’s more philosophical instead of “scientific”. But we desperately want to know the world since we are clear about the pay-off of predictability. Unpredictability and predictability, are like twins.

Randomness is our solution. More specifically, we use probability theory to get ourselves some clue. We “price” unpredictability by measures such as Sharpe ratio. We make ourselves a cozy home in the dark cold universe.

But if you pay a little attention to the definition, you can see a word “definite”. How come a definite thing in definition of a certainly indefinite thing?

Look back the way probability theory goes. It starts with gambling and now, has expanded to every area. But some basic principles haven’t changed. It needs preassumed distributions like Gaussian, to generate the whole topological structure, and needs some mapping rules like VaR, to help our decision. Both are strong assumptions and “definite”.

We get those definite things from data. But recent study is questioning both (for example, see Kahneman, Tversky, Mandelbrot’s writings). In my point of view, this is good but still wrong in direction.

Harold Hardy once said compared to physics, mathematics seems more “real” to him. Absolutely right. Given the randomness theory, itself forms a complete and beautiful system. Just like given gravity and other basic rules, we have our real world. In probability universe, we have rules like optimality, equilibrium, etc. Every entity can enter the universe but if it doesn’t show respect to the game rule, it’s going to be eliminated theoretically. To be specific, this is called arbitrage opportunity in finance.

But as Samuelson said, we can’t believe a model simply because it’s beautiful. Does randomness serve its purpose?

Why We Need Randomness?

We need randomness to make a better understanding of the real world, like Milton Friedman said, “prescribe what should be done in the light of what has been done”. Is the beautiful randomness really helpful in our reality?

Assume you are gambling with an idiot. You two pick 0 or 1 each time. And rule is as follows: If you two pick the same number, nothings happens. Otherwise, the 1 guy wins a million. Obviously, in this zero-sum matrix game, only one Nash equilibrium exists: 1-1.

But what if that idiot keeps picking 0? Are you going to be lured by the million reward? In other words, do you have confidence to tell determinacy by past data?

This simple example shows the gap between theoretical and real worlds. The strong assumptions and lack of details specifications make the theory hard and dangerous to apply. What if everyone truly regards the world as random? Is this going to lead to a limit or a never-converged distribution? Is the whole system resulted robust to its rules? By continuing such discussions, you would find it goes more and more theoretical and useless.

As John Milnor said about Nash’s work on game theory: “However, when mathematics is applied to other branches of human knowledge, we must really ask a quite different question: To what extent does the new work increase our understanding of the real world? On this basis, Nash's thesis was nothing short of revolutionary.” From this angle, probability theory is only a limited, micro-level theory. It sets up a set of rules about how people should play the game but doesn’t explain. What we are doing is to prove the completeness of the universe and seek black holes, etc.

In conclusion, there is no such thing called “randomness” in this world. What we face are only known and unknown.

Unknown is Unmeasurable

Randomness is still deterministic. It’s just a tool we use to treat the unpredictable world. Given circumstances, given uses, it’s useful. If people are stuck in it, they may lose the chance to realize the real world.

Unknown is unmeasurable. We have no idea what it is. Sure we can’t handle this kind of stuff. That’s why we turn to things like probability theory. We need to know the prior knowledge, the time, the frequency, the sample size, the utility, et al. But you can’t say a 99.9% VaR portfolio is secure since you don’t know how the system runs. We are dusts in a dessert and we need to see the big picture.

Think Big

My probability theory is poor and only limited to certain areas like finance. The learning of probability theory did improve my realization of the world. But the trading experience tells me to be a non-believer, i.e., probability theory is merely part of the tools we human being has invented along our history.

For financial world, I want to model it as a dynamical system. However, the complexity, theoretically, is beyond my current capacity and I also don’t have enough resources to practise my theory now. Anyway, I can use some intuitive and straight ways to experiment in small scale. Though they seem not so mathematically beautiful and even hard to express by words, they are better than orthodox finance engineering stuff because they are “big”.

Yes, think big and think different. We are not what we are taught but certainly we are what we think.

Some beautiful lines

The Road Not Taken
-Robert Frost

TWO roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that, the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I marked the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I,
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

A Nature article

" Chemistry: Power Play

A German physicist and a hedge-fund magnate are competing to push protein simulations into the realm of the millisecond. Brendan Borrell finds out what is at stake. "

Interesting article. I am going to write something about distributed and parallel computing when free.

Gouda with Cloves and Cumin

Better to be called Cloves and Cumin with Gouda.