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    2010-04-28

    I like this quote

    In his review for the Hollywood Reporter, Frank Scheck wrote, "it may finally be time to let Shrek and Fiona live happily ever after."

    Frankly, I have lost much of my confidence in Dreamworks. From the Shrek case, it gives out a mercenary image to the public.

    How to train your dragon (HTYD) sequel

    Not surprisingly, Dreamworks is going to roll out a sequel to the new "blockbuster". But whether it can be successful is highly suspicious.

    First,  HTYD's success cannot contribute to the movie itself alone. There are many exogenous factors, such as release time, movie review, that all together result its success. The sequel may not be able to replicate those factors.

    Second, Dreamworks is different from Disney. Disney movies are more traditional style, and the high quality is consistent. Dreamworks is more maverick, and unpredictable. It can produce witty Shrek I and II, while can also produce rubbish Shrek III and Monsters vs Aliens. There is no guarantee of the quality. Surely there can be upside surprise, but downside disappointment more likely.

    HTYD is not as good as its box office seems to be. Its success may be totally accidental and not replicable. Given past experience, there is high probability Dreamworks will screw up its sequel again.

    2010-04-26

    从生榴莲想到的

    一不小心,从超市买了一个还没熟的榴莲,虽然果味清香,别有一番风味,可惜的是果肉还很木质化,不得已,包上报纸继续让榴莲"被熟透"。

    晚上,伴随着弥漫的诡异的味道,思绪如榴莲般缥缈。

    第一自然是为何我会买了一个未熟的榴莲,这是思维惯性,在超市买榴莲基本不用自己挑,买的都是开包的,而若是开包的则默认是已经熟的,所以当时只注意了果肉的颜色而未注意到软硬,脱壳与否等环节。由此想到的是经济学里面的general equilibrium理论,以及金融市场里面的有效市场假说,所有的理论都依赖于市场参与者的信息集,而这一点正是社会多样奇妙之处。从另一个方面说,则是黑天鹅理论,在一个小概率事件下面隐藏的是与次贷危机同类的机理,只是并不是每一个黑天鹅都可以像榴莲放熟,但几乎每一个黑天鹅又都蕴藏着机会,比如生榴莲,就带来了我对于榴莲的进一步认识。

    生榴莲带来的第二个层面的思考主要是生物层面的,生榴莲到熟榴莲所产生的变化非常奇妙,而非简单的数学模型可以描述,所谓生生相息,而又生生相克,榴莲树,果肉,内壳,外壳构成了一个完整的生态系统。小而言之,这类技术完全可以用在生物农业,物流保鲜,包括生物医学领域,大而言之,在生态环境危机的今天,为何不从物理方法转向生物方法,找到解决之法。正如当年对于中医的去医存药,伴随着现在日新月异的生物技术,能否制造出更为精细的黑盒子?

    2010-04-24

    Black swans are rare, but black-swan hunters are abundant

    Just read an article on thestreet.com on AAPL.

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10731991/2/why-apple-gets-a-sell-rating.html

    I don't want to criticize the report itself, since two pages are definitely not enough. Many of the analyst's points can be found groundless, but I suppose that they will be much refined in a more complete report.

    Of course, AAPL is on the run now, and given its fabulous performance in the past years, such a bearish call is dismissed and slammed. It's not like the Enron case, AAPL should be able to have solid sales support, and that's more transparent than Enron.

    Mr. Bulkey is a black swan hunter. Of course, he only says AAPL is not as good as investors think it to be. The whole analysis is problematic, but a black swan is still possible. That's the interesting part of financial world. The reasoning is always decoupled from the result.

    2010-04-23

    Citibank Hong Kong e-banking

    I have accounts with four banks in HK: Citi, HSBC, Hangseng and BoC. Citi has the best customer service, but also gets the worst online banking system.

    The whole system seems a disaster to me. The speed is slow, and the display of information is usually messy and not clear. It does not provide a convenient interface for investment services either. The security trading through Citi e-banking is very much like a torture. On this metric, BoC and Hangseng stand out as leaders.

    Hope Citi would improve its system soon.

    2010-04-22

    Reading time

    Bloomberg mentioned five books on the crisis, among which I find some familiar names.
    The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine  I like his The Liar's Poker and Moneyball.
    The End of Wall Street The author of When Genius Failed.
    13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown 13, a very special number.
    The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It  This topic is toooooold. Let's see if this book can talk sth new.

    On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System As an insider, Mr. Paulson must feel it's a responsibility to give a personal account of the story.

    Will find some time to read these books and post the detailed reviews later. Stay tuned.

    What a way to finish the ogre

    Read an article from Bloomberg on the latest Shrek movie - Shrek: Forever After (probably the last one). Not surprisingly, the review is not good. I have watched the trailer. What disappointed me most is that now, not only the plot, also the picture quality become third-class. No doubt that the 3-D wave gives Shrek a final push.

    Farewell, Shrek.

    榴莲比较

    算不上一个狂热的榴莲爱好者,但就我品尝过的两种来说,金枕头远远胜过青尼,青尼虽然有更清香的果味,金枕头的口感更为复杂,质地绵密,新开的果肉感觉类似香蕉,带有苹果,奶油,巧克力,以及酒味。放一段时间后,酒味和奶油味更重。

    A handy tool

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?hp

    2010-04-20

    希望这家公司永远在

    http://www.amazon.co.jp/日本でいちばん大切にしたい会社-坂本-光司/dp/4860632486/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1271729419&sr=1-1

    这本书反映了典型的日本企业文化,不过作者所做的推理以及结论不够严谨,在这点上,我赞同Milton Friedman对于Business ethics的看法:Only human has ethics.

    PS: 书中提到的甜品店柳月很吸引人,什么时候去日本可以尝试一下。

    2003 Chateau Montrose

    Much to my disappointment. Acidy, tannic, earthy and little hint of chocolate. It's not like a classic Bordeaux, much closer to Burgundy or Rhone in my opinion. Maybe too early to make its call or perhaps decanting can do the trick.

    2010-04-19

    A book on the GS and Paulson case

    The greatest trade ever by Gregory Zuckerman.


    Every crisis not only generates opportunities, also nourishes great works. Haven't got time to read it yet. It's written by a WSJ reporter, and should be a serious work.

    PS: I am trying out Amazon associates.

    2010-04-17

    Cramer's point

    I am not an insider and haven't read the complaint yet. But potential information distortion or asymmetry and the definition of information should be the key of this case. Otherwise, Cramer made the point:

    A Case of Arrogance

    Cramer took a few moments to sum up today's Goldman news by saying that there's a line like between illegal, and just plain stupid. He said that while he's been pro-prosecution in his career for years, based on what he's seen so far, the government's case against Goldman is weak. at best.

    Cramer explained that Goldman doesn't appear to have done anything wrong. When a hedge fund client came to them asking for an investment tool to play the housing market in 2007, Goldman did what it was supposed to: It hired an outside firm to provide the due diligence. He said the resulting prospectus on the new investment tool seemed to be very thorough and transparent.

    So Cramer wondered whether it was illegal for Goldman to then sell this new product, or just stupid for anyone to buy it. He said he's not sure, but he does know that people made money hand over fist before the market ultimately collapsed.

    Cramer said he's all in favor of financial reforms, and he likes a vigilant prosecution, but not an over-zealous one. He said at first glance Goldman appears to be arrogant, and arrogance is not illegal.

    2010-04-13

    Bordeaux 09 En Primeur

    2009 seems a year not shy to 2005. But given current mania in the wine market, the price is already quite out of reach. Besides the most sought-after Lafite, keep an eye on Marguax, Leoville Lascases and Cos d'Estournel.

    2010-04-07

    济钢悖论

    http://business.sohu.com/20100330/n271205168.shtml

    老实说,这类国企换帅无甚稀奇,不管你干的好坏与否,都没有自主权,然而让人可发一笑的是新任董事长毕志超的逻辑,除了例行公事一般的先指桑骂槐一番以外,他说到"希望全体干部振奋精神,全力以赴扭转生产经营被动局面,3月份要扭亏,4月份要完成任务"。

    这几句话颇有学问,大概毕董事长以为企业如足球,换帅如换刀,必然会有三把火。我还真不太明白,难道换个董事长是能降低成本还是凭空创造出新的需求?如果不会对基本形势改变的话换人又有何用,难不成本来3月份就是要扭亏,4月份本来就不存在完不成任务一说?如此一来那免不了得到一个毕董事长撒谎不脸红,牛皮吹破天或者智商有问题的结论。

    细想不然,此中必有学问,山钢的几个官僚趁此机会换人,必然是有暗中交易或者承诺,如此一来,这次换人也就变成了一次肮脏的政治交易,依靠政治手段和牺牲政府的信用来为小团体利益服务,其目的无非是谋取政绩,并为山钢系及其靠山谋求经济资本,如此龌龊的组织结构,将来必出大问题。