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    2009-12-18

    Avatar

    Avatar = Dance with Wolves + Terminator + Titanic

    The main plot is similar to Kevin Costner's Dance with Wolves. Indian didn't win but Navi makes it.

    Like Terminator, Avatar sets new high standards for special effects, in particular, CG.

    And last but not the least, it's a movie for lovers. Personally, I prefer to Dance with Wolves. It's a movie I can watch for many times, alone. But if with my lover, Avatar is the definite choice. The question is: Can Avatar refresh the Titanic record?

    2009-12-17

    2001, Le Vieux Donjon, Chateauneuf du Pape

    versatile. show a little brick on the brim. pleasant and profound on the nose. very balanced layers of acidity, pepper, wood, vanilla and chocolate. sweet tannin. with plenty of presentation of the elegance of a CDF wine.

    2009-12-14

    2009-12-08

    Dubai crisis - No panic

    I am reading Stephen Roach's Next New Asia. Given the recent Dubai crisis, I pay particular attention to what he described about Dubai phenomenon. Not surprisingly, he is relatively reserved, only said it's either a bubble or an emblematic.

    This evokes my thought on the Elliot wave theory. Usually, a consolidation is needed before a major bull market. It's the case for Internet, for new energy, and now, for New Middle East?

    I can't make the call. If time is only related to people's confirmation, it is probably fine. But can Dubai really complete the transformation, whose magnitude is never seen any analog before?

    2009-11-30

    说文解字

    新学字两个:

    籴 - 作买米解

    粜 - 作卖米解


    Rothaus Pils TANNEN ZÄPFLE

    Said to be the highest beer in Germany by the brewery's elevation.

    A balanced taste. Malty, sweet and fruity. Long lingering finish. Most important, bought at discount. only 7HKD.

    2009-11-28

    Dubai crisis - Follow up

    someone said to me, "it's sheer 59 billion. is this really that deadly?"

    yes, 59 billion is no big deal. the most important is not the absolute value, but the chain reaction and the momentum it can build.

    first, those banks, those lenders, they may well have hedged their loans by mitigating to other investors. this is basically the same mechanism as we have seen in the meltdown of subprime loans. like the real estate, we need to estimate the whole chain to see what the burst of the bubble would bring. how big is it? i don't know.

    one step further. this may cause a new round of panic. the cost of lending would rocket and the just built-up inventory would be stuck again. for many businesses, this is a critical time since they are about to get refinancing of previous loans. what they might say to themselves is, "oh, no, not right now." if this kind of mood spreads, this is the catalyst elliot wave theorists are waiting.

    2009-11-27

    A second thought on the black swan

    There is a very obscure connection among the three black swans: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and Dubai crisis.

    In four days, USD has slumped nearly 6% against JPY. It happened before but I still feel very weird. Everyone thinks it would go down but without any catalyst, how can such a big move happen? During the process, it has taken a break for 3-4 times and then been pushed down again. Even it has hit a 14-year low, it's further sold down 200bps to 84.6.

    Meanwhile, the hike at EUR/USD is relatively mild and not impressive. There is no major force behind it. At first, I thought maybe it's because of the heterogenous patterns between the two pairs, or because of liquidity problem. I even thought this is the engine while the JPY is the follower. I later corrected this thought after seeing the bungee on USD/JPY. But after the Dubai crisis appeared, I have another possible scenario emerging in my mind.

    Is it possible the major players, i.e., banks, front-run us? They kept parking to the safe harbor at JPY. And the move at EUR/USD is just some pegging mechanism. That's why when the news comes out, we see the trend in USD/JPY continues while EUR/USD reverses. The followers get it all wrong.

    As I have said before, there is no way to predict a black swan when you are facing a competitor like the big banks. Their edge is too obvious and powerful. Your experience may help. You may have seen this black swan this time. But what if it's a different black swan next time?

    Still need to dig deep into fundamental research or refer to quantitative approaches. A long way to go, I tell myself.

    UA iSquare IMAX 3D, Dec 17

    Avatar, I'm coming..

    Carruades 2007 at 1300GBP per case

    Ridiculous. Consider selling my inventory now.

    Why we need options

    Because of black swans. There is a lot of ways to tell a trend, an entry signla, etc. But there is no way to tell a black swan if I am not a deep fundamentalist. Thus, as a necessary complement for a quantitative trader, option is the best solution.

    Dubai is down

    Not surprisingly. Many guys are going to profit handsomely from this crisis. They have been watching this "phenomenon" for a long time. That's a good part of investment, like Jesse Livermore said, bull makes money, bear makes money.

    2009-11-26

    Stop Loss

    Someone thinks stop loss is a target that defines the maximum level of loss you can tolerate on the corresponding trade. Wrong. Stop loss is nothing different from entry of a trade. It should be a dynamic signal instead of a static level which is determined at the beginning of a trade. Most important, it is closely related to the temporal consideration. Without defining temporal constraint, it's like to give your life to someone else to take care of.

    So there is no such thing called stop loss. Don't let stop loss to terminate a trade passively. Actively manage them and keep a neutral view on entry/exit.

    Headline

    USD hits 14-year new low against JPY. The black swan is still there and gets some followers.

    Time to pull my trigger right now.

    Black swan flied by and I am still alive...

    Fat stupid black swan flied by (more accurately, still here) and I, surprisingly, am still alive... Two things I keep telling myself:

    1. Always ensure I still have enough ammo to give the damn swan a final shot. So hold my fire and be swift when going under;

    2. Never fight against big guys. They can move the market but I can't. So it's nonsense if I am right in the end, but with a dead body. Wait the right time to ride on them.

    Seems contradicted? Well, not. Timing and skill are important. Time for "Are you a qualified trader" test.

    2009-11-21

    The road to Avatar

    Avatar, by James Cameron, is a movie I have put very high expectation on. After watching so many trailers, I feel Avatar is like... Starcraft. Really. If Cameron can go one step further, probably we can see Zerg, Protoss. The aliens in Avatar do look a little bit like Protoss. I hope Cameron won't stop here. Look forward to a StarCraft series that can match Lord of Rings.

    2009-11-18

    Is NFA helping you to survive?

    Just receive an email from one of my forex brokers, said in compliance with the new NFA regulation, they are not able to provide the 100:1+ leverage ratio anymore. This email has stirred my thought on this issue.

    The extremely high leverage ratio remains to be a peculiarity that is often misunderstood by novice traders. Their math is easy. Say CNY has appreciated 20% against USD in a year. So if they take full advantage of the leverage, they would have 2,000% return.

    This is not the way things are. Extremely high leverage ratio, by no means, is aiming at long term investment. Rather, its primary benefit, is to provide investors to take advantage of noise of the forex market, in the presence of its liquidity. For the brokers, this is good because they can both eat the bid-ask spread and enjoy a decent interest from short-term lending. But if it's interpreted in the wrong way, the outcome could be disastrous. If you ask any experienced forex traders, they would say high leverage ratio accelerates you to hell, not to heaven. Personally, I never trade at full capacity. I believe what Bill Lipschutz said, the most important thing, is to stay in the game.

    So yes, it's well acknowledged that high leverage ratio is no good for premature investors. But is NFA's action making a point out of this? I don't think so. Firstly, the big fishes in the forex pond, I believe, still have access to formidable financing power. So the new regulation doesn't make the pond a more peaceful world, rather, it gives a hard time to small fishes like me. It potentially reduces the capital that small investors are exposed to and enlarges the gap between big and small fishes. It's really a bureaucratic decision in my view.

    Everyone knows nuclear weapon is no good. But like what game theorists say, the equilibrium is still achieved by those nuclear countries if they foresee the disastrous outcome. It's the same logic that applies to the forex leverage ratio. And now, NFA is artificially changing the rules of the game and naively thinks they are protecting the small investors. It's ridiculous.

    2009-11-17

    平凡的世界

    今天偶然听到中央人民广播电台重新录制了路遥的平凡的世界,播讲者仍然是李野默。

    我听得最早的是80年代的版本,距今已经20多年,当年播讲的时候是路遥边写中央广播电台边播。

    或许新改的播讲稿更好的反映了原作的韵味,或许李野默觉得自己现在的阅历能更好的表达这部著作,也或许是我有了太固执的先入为主,总感觉新的版本缺少了一种东西,李野默现在成熟技巧性更强的声音反而无法和平凡的世界这部更多的是依靠一种内在情感的作品融合在一起。或许李野默现在更适合去表达那些很热门的反腐题材作品,而失去了表述平凡的世界的那种心境。

    这种缺憾美是一代人的记忆,正如当年朱时茂,丛珊的牧马人,陈道明,英达的围城,王扶林的红楼梦,夏雨的阳光灿烂的日子,都是无法再复制的作品。

    2009-11-06

    Napa classification

    i think it's coming out sooner or later. and finally a finnish wine magazine takes the job:


    here are a few factors they list in their consideration of the classification: quality, price, winemaking philosophy, history, terroir. and they have a minimum 15 years history of producing wines to qualify a winery.

    they do their homework i think. all in the list are well known names. and their classification may also be justified by each vintage's scores and market prices. but is such a classification really meaningful?

    US is a more dynamic place than France or Italy. Though people may acknowledge Napa, Sonoma, etc, produce some of the best wines in the world, there are still too much uncertainty out there. Of course, here, uncertainty is a good thing. US has much more potential than the old world and we are probably going to see more and more successful stories like screaming eagle, harlan estate, etc. Like Terroir only accounts for 20% in their evaluation (i have no idea how they do that), this is usually regarded as the single most important thing that determines the character of a wine. Besides, from statistical angle, many factors are correlated. The factor list is somewhat biased.

    Second, is such a list really helpful? I think at current stage, the effect is limited. US wines seem to be extremely polarized. Those cult wines can fetch price even higher than Bordeaux first growth while those jug wines are selling at price lower than grape juice. The classification seems to tell us something that is already well known rather than providing any guidance. If there is something I would like to know, I think it's some guidance on the prospect or evaluation of the rising stars.

    I think a classification of US wines is like to score the hedge funds. It's fine but pretty much nonsense. See LTCM? But anyway, though there is a long way ahead, no doubt US wines are gaining ground now. I will keep an eye on those cult wines, especially my favorite ones from Bill Harlan.

    2009-11-05

    My Forex trading P/L

    For the past 4 months, my forex trading performance:

    USD account: 40%
    EUR account: 18%

    Given EUR account had once a drawdown of 30%, I am glad I can make it back.

    The number of trades:

    USD account: 140
    EUR account: 170

    It has become a daily fun. Though I no longer make hundreds of trades a day and double in two days, I have less possibility to blow up as well. Lucky for me.

    very interesting cyclic pattern

    happen to see a stat called google domestic trend. it's basically an index tracking ppl's interest in certain topics by calculating the number of related queries. interestingly, you can find a very obvious cyclic pattern for most of the trends it tracks. generally, the pattern is repeated annually and will have a peak at some specific time during a year. and most have their peaks around year end.

    Automotive:

    Luxury goods:

    Another single-letter ticker stock

    Hyatt is said to plan its IPO now. Will trade under ticker "H".

    Pritzker family, the one who name the most prestigious award in architecture, said to own 85% stake.

    2009-11-04

    US cult wines

    Till now, I have only tried two US cult wines. 2005 Quilceda Creek Cab. and 1996 Harlan Estate. Both are terrific. I am sure US produces some of the best wines in the world nowadays. And among them, I am especially interested in Bill Harlan's wines.

    The most known flagship wine, Harlan Estate, is among the most sought after and pricey. And even its second wine, Harlan the Maiden, can match the price of Carruades de Lafite or Les Forts de Latour, maybe even higher. Of course, this is fair given Maiden often gets the same high scores as those Bordeaux first growth while Carruades only keeps its premium because of huge Chinese demand.

    Another rising star from Bill Harlan is the Bond series. Currently, there are five sub-labels: St Eden, Melbury, Vecina, Pluribus and Quella. Each is produced by some top located single-vineyard. And since birth, the wines have kept the consistent high quality. Their prices are now only a little higher than the Maiden.

    I don't know where the name "Bond" comes from. But probably this means the project is long-time and will pay off decently as time goes. Indeed, a good wine is like a zero coupon bond. After a decade or so, it can bring you the joy nothing else can parallel.

    Long some "Bond" if you can.

    2009-10-30

    Forex brokers

    When I entered the Forex trading market, there are not many brokers for me to choose from, compared with those many stock brokers. But today, there are at least hundreds out there, and the number is still growing at a daunting rate.

    What's all behind this?

    Well, first reason is understandable. The Forex trading, like its predecessor - equity trading, has become more and more accessible to individual investors. Other than those professional speculators, individual investors can now play in this market with pretty low entry and trading costs. There is a demand, there is a supply. Comparing with the old retailing bank channel, professional brokers can provide low spread, low capital requirement, more currency pairs, higher leverage ratio (usually at least 1:50). It's not surprising to see the brokers to spring up.

    But there are many other dirty reasons as well.

    There is usually no commission fee charged for Forex trading. The fee is in the spread. The broker is the market maker and he can live on the spread. In a simple market without extreme price movement and with enough liquidity, the broker can live well. This can be testified from the profits of Citi and JP Morgan from their market maker roles in foreign exchange market.

    By registering with a Forex broker, normally you are not pegged to a universal trading platform like NYSE or NASDAQ. Rather, you are in the broker's internal market. Of course, the theory of no-arbitrage must prevent a huge deviation. But who assures you that? The broker internal world is far from efficient.

    In the old times, the brokers can be the middle man between a more tight interbank system and the platform they provide you. In other words, they are risk-free in an ideal trading scheme. Of course, in the highly volatile Forex market, they have to do some homework to make sure risk is minimized.

    As the competition intensifies, this, for most brokers, doesn't work anymore. One thing now sometimes happens at certain brokers is the sudden price movement. Since many investors will hedge their trades with a stop loss, this information, public to the broker, can be well explored. I am not going into details too much, but this is quite possible. So one tip is don't set your stop loss level at some commonly recognized values, like EURUSD@1.50. Since the broker is usually hedged with an opposite position to yours, the more you lose, the more they gain.

    The reason for all these traps lies in the fact that the brokers are also speculators. They have the traders' information and can make well use of that. Even though there are many ways to avoid such conflicts of interests. For novice traders, it's still dangerous.

    2009-10-22

    Wine Tycoon, the game

    maybe the simulation game on wine industry. but totally a disaster. the options are pretty few, the control is simple and boring, the game doesn't reflect the wine industry closely and the 3D interface is absolutely useless expect slowing the running.

    in my opinion, a good game on wine should be:

    1) take Terrior seriously: this means factors like weather, soil, etc should be considered;
    2) remember history: vintage is an important feature of any wine game. also, the historical wine price should be kept for reference;
    3) more interaction with demand side: that would make a game interesting. wine business is not easy since the market is pretty mature. to gain the market step by step would be a challenging job to do;
    4) bigger view: not only vineyard, but also marketing, retailing, competition, etc. not only in france, but also other old world places, or big new world vision.


    2009-09-27

    2009-09-25

    Hold Your Cash for iPad

    Carruades Phenomenon

    that's what farrvintners name it. Yes, the price has rocketed due to the recovery of global economy and the buyers from emerging markets. you can say it's another speculative bubble. but i am glad i am one of the early riders.

    a case of carruades 2007 en primeur i bought in April at GBP585 are now sold by the same dealer for 1275. this is not the best investment i have done, but certainly most joyful.

    PS:

    a bloomberg article on lafite price:

    2009-09-23

    “抢镜头”的松鼠

    Stradivari violins

    One of the most expensive musical instruments is Stradivari violin. According to a 2004 Forbes article, the luthier made around 1,100 violins and 650 are left. Right then, the world record is kept at $2.03m by a Strad violin called "Lady Tennant". But now, go to the website of Stradivari society, it's said the record is now set at $9.5m on a Strad violin named "Barrow" by a Russian collector. While this is astonishing, the cello "Dupont", also fabricated by Antonio Stradivari, previously owned by Rostropovich, has been acquired by Japan Music Foundation at $20m. I am curious what price "Davidoff" would be sold if it's on market one day, which is owned by Yo-yo Ma.

    Kindle books can be read on iphone and ipod touch

    A smart move by Amazon. But what if Apple rolls out its own tablet? A Kindle killer?

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html?ie=UTF8&ref=dp_kinw_ae_2&docId=1000301301

    Path design

    Traditionally, a game is well defined and each player has his own information set and risk attitude. Based on this, various forms of game can be discussed.

    However, the game itself is part of the evolution. How it evolves also depends on each player's decision and the historical path. It's similar to Andrew Lo's adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). And it's different from the learning theory on that the complete form of the game is unknown. There is not a definite goal to put all backward reasoning to an end.

    So rather than mechanism design, we should focus on path design. It's still kind of mechanism design, just in a dynamic way. And most important, feedback is needed in order to see how far the game has gone and how each player's information has evolved. Based on these information, we are able to design the next feasible path.

    I am not quite crystal about the theory and its possible applications right now. I will review some literature and come back with more rigorous and applicable ideas later. So stay tuned on.

    There is always a bigger game

    excerpted from the book "The Art of Strategy" by Dixit and Nalebuff and also is a good quick summary of the main principles of the book.

    To be more complete, there is always a bigger, longer and crazier game.

    2009-09-22

    Interesting

    嘉德09拍卖的几个成交:

    李苦禅 /198. 蔬菜图 RMB 25,000-35,000 RMB 257,600
    许麟庐 双鳜图 RMB 6,000-9,000 RMB 24,640
    (清)张廷玉等纂 古香斋新刻. RMB 1,000-2,000 RMB 47,040

    前为参考价,后为实际成交价。和葡萄酒拍卖来比,差得太离谱。如李苦禅,程十发,黄宾虹,李可染等大家作品除了流拍,都是超出参考价数倍成交。

    一个很有意思的是,价格越低,成交价偏的越厉害,高价反而相对准确。不过这种人为制造的噱头实在可笑,若是zero reserve price要专业拍卖行何干。至于说价格虽会有波动,但中国书画属于传统领域,又不是当代艺术,怎么会有如此大的偏差。这么干明显是欺负外行人。而流拍亦是诡异,如程十发的少女双鹿图,参考价45000-65000,虽较其他几幅为高,但考虑类似的一幅纨扇仕女最后成交123200,应该不是问题。低于底价?临阵退出?赝品?

    看来拍卖市场果然猫腻众多,应该很有意思。

    月饼战策略

    对于所有中国的面点房来说,毫无疑问,一年大部分盈利的要寄托于每年中秋的月饼销售,食品加工行业本身毛利率已经不小,而月饼更是如此。然而日益激烈的月饼市场也难免让不少厂家头疼,一个门槛过低的市场很容易充斥大量“无产阶级”,要打赢一场月饼战也非易事。

    求助广告和公关是大家最容易想到的方法,然而这个渠道也是日趋饱和,难免有囚徒困境的尴尬。再者,广告作用最明显在两个方面:一是新产品或新市场,二者在于长时间高密度形成momentum。对于月饼这一产品,两个都不太成立。一来大多数月饼的消费者有自己的偏好,而月饼创新有限,所以除了像是冰皮之类进军内地市场之类的案例,广告作用有限,二来中秋时间短,短短一两个月的时间很难形成momentum。

    排除纯技术因素,这里说几个月饼战策略:

    1. 采用礼券:

    这个已经是大众趋势,不光是在月饼行业。好处是方便,产品选择广泛,质量来源有保证,月饼厂商利用此种策略,不但可以有效的避免消费者对于月饼这类有特殊期限产品的担忧,还可以灵活的进行促销打折。

    基于这一策略,可以衍生出很多小技巧。比如采用跨厂商的通用礼券,甚至跨地区的礼券。中秋礼券的退还策略。

    2. 千金散尽:

    单凭广告恐怕很难改变一个顾客的偏好,但若此人白捡到一个50的代金券,大多数情况不会浪费。这样一来,厂家莫若做些homework,然后在某些区域偷偷撒代金券。一来本身月饼成本很低,即便有这些代金券,由此扩大的销量完全有能力抵消毛利率的降低,二来可以打击竞争对手的市场份额,三来可以避免明显打折导致的价格战。当然,具体的实施细节以及考虑对手后续应对都可以展开讨论。诚如李白所说:千金散尽还复来。

    3. 提前预订:

    这个不用赘述,对于提前抢占市场份额以及降低需求不确定性都有很大的好处。

    4. 通用材料:

    如美心,荣华之类的厂商,所用材料并非只限于制作月饼,因此也就具有特殊的优势。任何一个月饼厂商也要事前想好退路。

    2009-09-21

    Montrachet 1998 - Comte de Lafon

    Medium golden. Nose of honey and wood. Strong acid and touch of honey, apple, wood and mineral but very smooth. The finish is long, fruity and sweet. Overall, a less-sweet-more-acidy version of sauternes. A terrific white.


    山钢与日钢合并思考(二)

    几点有关案中细节的思考:

    1. 以退为进:

    在双方博弈的过程中,若是日钢已知事不可为,可以采用以退为进的策略,留下后手,而山钢在此过程中,牌已出了不少,恐怕在后继问题上会有些乏力。

    2. 投石问路:

    此次合并有一个问题并未解决,即是日钢在香港上市资产的处置问题。此举在事后,有亡羊补牢的功效,而在事前,则有投石问路的作用,作为一个后手,作用不容小视。

    3. 先下手为强:

    此次合并部分借助了工信部新出台的钢铁业兼并重组指导意见,此举虽有一定的政治考虑,也有一定的战略意义。通过合并,不但实现规模的扩大,获得国家一定的政策倾斜,以及整合带来的经济优势,其产生的一定的负面效应,或许也会堵死其他地方的效尤之路,从这个角度,山钢,日钢应当上演一出周瑜打黄盖的好戏。

    从经济角度来说,此次合并有其优点,但结合政治考量,简单的判断亦非易事,关键还是如何进行事后监督。

    2009-09-20

    山钢与日钢合并思考

    山钢与日钢合并思考

    日钢的名声大振,部分源于在四川赈灾日钢老总的巨额捐赠,且不说坊间有关日钢的各种传闻,此举为日钢赢得了一定的媒体好感,或许这也是为何今天山钢日钢合并媒体偏向日钢的一部分因素。中央电视台的新闻周刊节目做过一期有关两家合并的专题,主持人白岩松加上嘉宾吴晓波和一个清华的教授,虽然基调是谴责,但只是说了20分钟无用的废话。整个节目依旧是白的个人主观评论,既无严谨的分析,也无事实数据支持。

    收购兼并,如同合作博弈,在自由市场必于双方预期皆有益而方能进行,虽然有研究表明大多数事后效果远未达预期。对于钢铁类的资源企业而言,收购兼并所带来的好处,无非以下几条:产能扩大带来的政府政策方面的扶持;由于合并产生的产能限额再优化;由于规模效应带来的议价优势;由于合并带来的共同业务的精简。

    逐条分析,当前来说,似乎除了政府方面的考虑,其他方面并无明显的优势。对于产能的调整现阶段根本不需要收购兼并来实施,而相反的是恐怕这个会成为政府主导此次合并的一张王牌。议价谈判,结合中钢协最近的表现,此举更是空中楼阁,而精简优化,从之前的联合的莱钢济钢来看,更是没影的事。一言以蔽之,一切的美景,都是嘴说出来的。

    回顾这一合并的过程,有两点最为人诟病,一是政府主导,作为上市公司,似乎没人提到莱钢济钢其他股东权益在这一行为的体现,更多得到照顾的是本已经地位尴尬的政府机关山东冶金总公司,如此行为,恐怕对将来的投资者信心会有不利影响;第二,在媒体的报道中,整个合并过程似乎是拉郎配,在经济形势转好的今天,日钢有资格待价而沽,“和谐”的合并造成的国进民退是当前媒体所不愿意看到的。

    合并以后的大山钢并非一路平坦,一来经济形势难料,如果经济下行,则日钢反而成为包袱。二者管理堪忧,这次合并造成的人心不和会对将来的企业管理留下后遗症。第三,即便是政府行为,如何协调地方和省级财政的关系,第四,市场多变,小钢铁企业相比大型钢企,具备灵活性和准确的市场定位,消灭小型钢企,降低市场灵活度,与整体经济无益,而且反而使之成为国家的包袱,再说将来若再出现这种情况,再如何应对。

    企业具备相当的容错性,新山钢虽然不会出现瞬间崩盘的危险,但其中产生的不职业,不负责却值得警惕,任何产业,怎能求助于简单的规模扩大,依此遗留下的问题,又如何进行问责。不过从另一个可能来说,从执行力来说,此次合并恐怕不会产生实质影响,为了赶时间的仓促合并其中难免各方利益的妥协,留有颇多后手,合并一事的主导者手中牌恐怕已经出了大半,日钢又非鱼肉,如此一来,恐有大山钢之名而无其之实。整个行为,到最后于实体经济活动无影响,而只是政治行为和某小部分人利益的提升。

    2009-08-25

    One Billion Customers

    By James McGregor.

    A very penetrating book. The description of how systems work in China is precise and insightful. The only pity is the book focuses only on business side.

    2009-08-22

    The Jefferson's Bottles

    It seems the notorious topic has been revoked once again. Check out the NYTimes article :

    I have read the book "The billionaire's vinegar" before I had some knowledge about wine. And then got to know MB (a.k.a. Michael Broadbent). He seems to enjoy an impeccable reputation in wine society. So personally, I think MB has no incentive to be involved in the "crime" even probablistically it's possible and econonmically, he could have done that. He could well claim that he just sticked to his own principles even those principles can easily put a person into an embarassing position under the current law-based, instead of conscience-based, society.

    Actually, this issue becomes so complicated that no final judgment is able to cover all. A law suit is aiming at addressing this problem from an economic angle which has been tried but failed before. But first, it involves with several secret issues that remained unchallenged in high-end market. After all, credit and trust are the default assumptions in such market. If they arebroken, hard to say if it's good. Second, even from economic angle, those buyers, sellers, auction house, even those doubters like Mr. Wallace, are well benefited. So what's the point of a final judgment? It serves no so-called justice purpose but only economic drives of the same greedy people.


    2009-08-21

    Wine Price

    Happened to read a NYTimes 1992 article, some excerpt:

    'In Bordeaux, Peter Sichel of the Maison Sichel negociant said that the average price per bottle for top Bordeaux wines fell to 160 francs (about $33.50 at current exchange rates) for the 1991 vintage, from 205 francs ($43) for the 1990.

    This sharp drop, after several years of mounting prices, partly reflected the fact that the 1990 vintage is widely regarded as superior. But in part, Mr. Sichel said, "it showed that the bubble has burst." '

    Now, it's not surprised to see a good vintage of any top Bordeaux sold for ~$400. In other words, in the 17-year period, by its dollar value, that interprets into a rough compound annual return rate 15%.

    2009-08-19

    Reforming en primeur by Live-Ex

    http://liv-ex.typepad.com/livex_fine_wine_market_bl/2009/05/reforming-en-primeur.html

    I agree that a registration system will facilitate the trading but I doubt it really has any effect before physical delivery. Actually, the multi-layer system currently existent in wine market may well buffer this functionality.

    About the transparency, still, the problem is even you know the supply, you have no idea about the demand.

    After all, if wine becomes just a number game like stocks, then much of the fun is lost. Although the proposal is good, it will hardly get any progress any time soon. Those who would like to adopt it usually don't need En Primeurs, and those who release En Primeurs, wouldn't feel much incentive to realize such a system in the not-so-fierce game.

    First corked wine

    A Veranda 2007. I can't describe the flavor but it just feels different...

    2009-08-08

    Veranda Cabernet/Carmenere 2007

    A really good wine. Has it all just a little bit thin. Just 10 dollars at ParknShop.

    Win the Best Red Blend at 6th Annual Wines of Chile Awards:

    2009-08-06

    Some beautiful pics from Ratatouille

    copyright by WaltDisney (watch out! it's big.)


    The prototype of Chef Gusteau in Ratatouille?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Loiseau

    Excerpt from Wikipedia:

    "In February 2003, a prominent French chef, Bernard Loiseau, committed suicide after his widely-admired restaurant Côte d'Or in Saulieu was downgraded by the Gault Millau from 19 to 17 points. At the same time a downgrade by Michelin from three to two stars had been rumoured, but was not done and a denial had been issued to the press. Doubt has been placed on this story since, according to Gault Millau, the chef was aware of the downgrade in advance and looking forward to the challenge."

    2009-07-22

    Liver Cancer Treatment

    For fun.

    Faustino Winery

    By Sir Norman Foster.


    It's cool but not impressive. After all, what is a winery building supposed to be? Of couse the first priority is to serve the functionality of the whole winery. Look at the building, it naturally blocks the wind and sunshine of certain regions. It changes the terrior! The designers know nothing about viticulture.

    I will have Renzo Piano to design the winery if I have chance to set up one in the future.

    2009-07-18

    实践教学

    如果我教授金融,我会让所有学生在第一天都构建自己的portfolio,当然是在virtual market,但performance及最后的review会计入成绩(会对比benchmark indices进行cannibalization),而且要有一些限制,比如只在特定时间开放(类似Bermudan option)避免占用过多时间,以及提供leverage以及一些标准的trading strategies(例如trending following,event driven...)进行比较。

    2009-07-05

    一个有趣的故事

    在wiki看到有关A clockwork orange的条目,里面有一个当时美国出版商出版英国小说家Burgess原著的时候,要求去掉最后一章有关Alex自我反省救赎,而这一章的内容也没有出现在随后Stanley Kubrick的电影里面。

    下面是原文:

    Omission of the final chapter

    The book has three parts of seven chapters each. Burgess has stated that the total of 21 chapters was an intentional nod to the age of 21 being recognised as a milestone in human maturation. The 21st chapter was omitted from the editions published in the United States prior to 1986.[3] In the introduction to the updated American text (these newer editions include the missing 21st chapter), Burgess explains that when he'd first brought the book to an American publisher, he'd been told that U.S. audiences would never go for the final chapter, in which Alex sees the error of his ways, decides he has lost all energy for and thrill from violence and resolves to turn his life around (a slow-ripening but classic moment of metanoia—the moment at which one's protagonist realises that everything he thought he knew was wrong).

    At the American publisher's insistence, Burgess allowed their editors to cut the redeeming final chapter from the U.S. version, so that the tale would end on a note of bleak despair, with young Alex succumbing to his darker nature—an ending which the publisher insisted would be 'more realistic' and appealing to a U.S. audience. The film adaptation, directed by Stanley Kubrick, is based on this "badly flawed" (Burgess' words, ibid.) American edition of the book. Kubrick claimed [4] that he had not read the original version until he had virtually finished the screenplay, but that he certainly had never given any serious consideration to using it.

    2009-06-26

    Michaeal Jackson has gone

    You are not alone
    -Michael Jackson

    Another day has gone
    I'm still all alone
    How could this be
    You're not here with me
    You never said goodbye
    Someone tell me why
    Did you have to go
    And leave my world so cold

    ....

    But you are not alone
    For I am here with you
    Though we're far apart
    You're always in my heart
    But you are not alone

    The new paradigm for financial markets

    By George Soros.

    Finally, Mr. Soros realizes what's behind his long advocated cycle theory. He called it reflexiticity. In my opinion, better called AMH (adaptive market hypothesis), named by Andrew Lo.

    Is real-time sales data communication implementable, necessary and good for all?

    2009-06-23

    An interesting website

    http://www.edge.org

    Slow Reaction vs. Crisis Proof

    投资者心理是股市的重要决定因素,而一个有意思的现象是,最近,中国的股票市场呈现出和世界股市解耦的反弹趋势,在基本面因素(很大程度上是Soros说的reflexity),资金流向因素以外,投资者心理是个值得研究的现象。

    在经济收缩时期,股市并不是一个良好的投资手段,尤其是存在极大不确定性的时候,现金是比较保险的选择。然而中国的投资者似乎认清了股市循环的道理,反正要回来的,放在那里也无所谓,如此可爱的想法不但支撑了中国股市独立于全球趋势之外,而且创造了巨大的虚拟经济。这样的股市似乎更符合trend following系统的特征,对于噪声的刺激极为鲁棒。

    "中国股市不合理,跌也跌过头,涨也涨过头。"忘了这句话是谁说的,不过既然过头,何为合理?

    Hal Varian曾经在Santa Fe研究所举行过一次由agents相互之间博弈的股市游戏,最终胜出的是一个tiny profit grabber,他就像寄生虫一样,击败了所有的trend follower,stats robots...不过最后的世界陷入死寂,因为这些agents是被动的,他们必须依赖于外部的趋势才能获利,从这个角度上来说,似乎我们最终也要回归基本面。

    中国股市现在的不合理和当年荷兰的tulip mania,以及美国股市在20年代的疯狂一样,大多是由于其初期不合造成的,还有过多的未受过教育的投资者入市,大多数人还缺乏其他的投资渠道,过高的saving rate也是一定程度上的推动因素,但正如07年的泡沫终将破灭一样,这种self-fulfilling过程随着股市的成熟比较破灭。

    对于所有犹豫的投资者而言,我的建议是:如果有足够的机会从理性中获利,那就永远不要寄望于趋附在不合理上面的回报。

    2009-06-20

    影院的竞价模式

    昨天去看一场电影,除了中间和后面几排以外,前面大部分的座位是空着的,这和影院的设计当然有关系,而这个区域的差异性可以通过不同的定价来实现利润的提升。

    一个简单的机制是采用竞价模式,比如一个正常票价60的影片,提供几个档位选择,比如30:5:60,通过竞价方式,如果报价60,可以直接得到该座位,而如果低价,则有可能会被后来者outbid,所有的竞价在影片开始前2小时截止。

    整个机制和ebay现在采用的方式没有什么区别,我想这种方式会很好的提高影院的盈利。

    2009-06-19

    鱼群的自组织行为(I)


    记得当年在清华,听过一个涂小媛的seminar,大致是有关artificial fish的,不过她所阐述的整个系统,更集中在分布式的个体行为以及相关的CG表述上。我对这些没有什么兴趣,真正有意思的是和emerging order联系起来,前两天看一个有关predator的纪录片,里面的鱼群在遭受攻击的时候,会从原来有方向性的自然的聚集状态自动形成一个球形,撇开这里面的进化原理不谈,如何从分布式的个体形成有统一行动,进而产生非常有规则的emerging order就非常有趣(记得当年张长水在AI课上演示过一个herd behavior的动画,不过似乎也不涉及深层次的问题)。

    最简单的例子是一个圆形的轨迹,如果根据牛顿定律,要形成这样一个轨迹,如果是一个二体系统,需要以一定的速度在轨迹上对称的互转,同理可以扩展到多体的原型轨迹。然而对于鱼群系统,完全是不同的概念,第一,不同于牛顿的场,在鱼群系统,更多的是邻近的鱼相互之间的作用,第二,不同于单个的稳定轨迹,鱼群系统具有很强的鲁棒性,可以根据不同的目的-觅食,逃脱捕猎等-采取不同的状态。这种状态是由进化而来,但也很大程度上和鱼群的这个系统的特征有关系。

    几个有意思的问题:

    1. 球状鱼群的形成需要怎样的个体行为,稳态是什么形式?
    2. 从一个沿某个方向前进的群体,在受到捕食者刺激的情况下,从个体的反应逐渐形成群体的球状应对是怎样的过程?
    3. 如何衡量球状鱼群的好处,是整体的函数优化还是一个鱼群个体互相博弈的结果?
    4. 根据你的理论模型,还有什么可能的稳态,怎样破坏稳态,对人类捕鱼作业有什么用处?

    2009-06-16

    Conquer the crash

    by Robert Pretcher, Elliot Wave advocate.

    Some investors may find the book a little overreacted and some may find the investment cycle in the book is too long for them to apply. But for mid- or long-term investment, what is discussed in this book is valuable and insightful.

    Recommend.

    2009-06-03

    桂河大桥 - The Bridge on the River Kwai

    David Lean的masterpiece,非常有深意的探讨。

    Spam fact

    统计了一下gmail邮箱最近三天的垃圾邮件,分类如下:

    药物 22
    贷款 13(12封中文,1封英文)
    工作 2
    推销 8
    杂类 2

    2009-05-28

    Long or Short?

    Although I am quite bullish on AAPL's WWDC, going to be held on June 8, the technical signal is not good. I am not sure whether the effect is already priced in. From past experience, I think I can still add my AAPL position before the WWDC but clear it before quarter earnings report.

    Squanderville vs. Thriftville

    http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf

    Probably the most famous story from Warrent Buffet. Some regard Squanderville to be US and Thriftville to be China, etc. However, it's not that accurate. I have no time to write thoroughly on this right now. Will come back to it when free.

    2009-05-20

    RFID

    I think RFID is going to fundamentally change the world in the future. It provides a more precise locating service than GPS. Check this out:

    2009-05-19

    How China makes money by disappointing the world

    在当前经济危机下,中国的地位得到了极大的提升,尤其对于资源型国家,现在不得不唯中国马首是瞻,或许现在一些中国人会“感觉好极了”。

    但这种好感觉太过昂贵。从经济角度,中国没有任何理由为别人买单,而从政治角度,这种金钱换来的政治回报不但不稳妥,而且风险太大,日本就是例子。

    中国管理自己财富的方式一直备受诟病,现在来看却是难得的机会。当世界都必须倾听你的声音的时候,你就有了创造这个世界最宝贵的资源-风险-的机会,这一点从近期的commodities市场就可以看出来。所以对于中国而言,现在是为自己的主权财富增值的绝好机会,不要被英美投机者蛊惑,用一招”明修栈道,暗渡陈仓“,把他们全部搞垮。

    这不会是中国独创,美国惯用此伎俩,而Rothschild家族的发家也源于类似的策略。很简单,当全世界把”希望“寄托于你的时候,买够足够的熊证,然后出来对大家说一句:”非常抱歉......“

    套用NBA的经典台词:It's nothing personal, it's just business. 

    2009-05-18

    A good way to short

    is to buy short ETF.

    ETF Name (Ticker)

    Short QQQ (PSQ)
    Short Dow 30 (DOG)
    Short S&P 500 (SH)
    Short MidCap400 (MYY)
    Short SmallCap600 (SBB)
    Short Russell2000 (RWM)
    UltraShort QQQ (QID)
    UltraShort Dow 30 (DXD)
    UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS)
    UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ)
    UltraShort SmallCap600 (SDD)
    UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)

    Short international :

    Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM)
    Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ)
    UltraShort MSCI EAFE (EFU)
    UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (EEV)
    UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV)
    UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP)

    UltraShort Style:

    UltraShort Russell1000 Value (SJF)
    UltraShort Russell1000 Growth (SFK)
    UltraShort Russell MidCap Value (SJL)
    UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth (SDK)
    UltraShort Russell2000 Value (SJH)
    UltraShort Russell2000 Growth (SKK)

    UltraShort Sector:

    UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
    UltraShort Consumer Goods (SZK)
    UltraShort Consumer Services (SCC)
    UltraShort Financials (SKF)
    UltraShort Health Care (RXD)
    UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
    UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)
    UltraShort Semiconductors (SSG)
    UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
    UltraShort Technology (REW)
    UltraShort Utilities (SDP)


    Buy Bonds, Guys

    2009-05-16

    Turmoil at Sequoia China

    没有永远的合伙人,只有永远的利益。


    PS: 这篇文章很快被TechCrunch删掉,在少数几个站点还有备份,
    大致意思是张帆由于一些"unethical"行为,沈南鹏由于在一宗涉及凯雷的投资案中的行为,都有可能离开红杉,联系之前KPCB等的中国合伙人模式的失败,文章反思了这类特殊合伙人制度的缺陷。
    PS2: The TC link above is available again. But some sensitive content has been modified.

    2009-05-13

    Apple WWDC 2009

    To be held from Jun 8-12. Tickets are sold out long time ago. Not sure whether Steve Jobs is going to present or not. Will it bring some breaking news again?

    Buy Apple = Buy Corporate America?

    2009-05-11

    老狗


    Chanel, world's oldest dog, has her day

    我们家贝贝也有19岁了,不知道能不能算是中国寿星狗。

    一个杂种京巴,贝贝不如黑贝,金毛等训练有素,举止得体,但智商颇高,情商更是绝伦,纵是白内障也掩饰不住她眼中流露出的沧桑,待人接物八面玲珑,于人情世故了然于胸,常常在一个哈欠之间叹尽世间百态,在余光一扫中看透世态炎凉。

    有狗如此,复何求哉!


    It's just COOOOL

    Nokia Aeon

    2009-05-10

    無法松の一生

    导演: 稲垣浩
    主演: 三船敏郎

    如果说三船敏郎的电影大多是有关英雄,无法松则是有关那些影片中无名的NPC;如果说三船敏郎的影片大多是有关英雄的辉煌前半生抑,无法松包括了全部;如果说三船敏郎的影片大多是有关一段特定时间一个特定场景的集合矛盾,无法松从头到尾展现了全部。

    无法松自己是一个完整的故事,也补全了三船敏郎的电影世界。

    2009-05-07

    一天一杯酒而乐。每天吃饭省20,一周一瓶酒,好惬意。

    2009-05-05

    Yao Ming = Willis Reed

    Can Rox be the 1970 Knicks?

    已经忘却的纪念

    已经忘却的纪念

    又是一年五四,平平淡淡,在香港,新的一代年轻人藉着五四锻炼自己的实用应聘技巧,而陈一谔亦以身作则,重演苏格拉底之死,是真是假,或许比无间道更复杂。猴子精算至此,如互吃dogshit创造GDP之经济学家,可发一叹。

    何为五四?在我脑中,五四如现代版的春秋战国,三国,盛唐一般充满传奇和激情,逢此国难之时,旧有体系赖以生存之基础在坚船利炮前不堪一击,何去何从,莫衷一是,正是百花齐放的最好时机。重读五四时著作,会感慨光阴纵然如梭,思想却不亦随之进步。

    然今人以何为五四?大概答案会是德先生,赛先生。民主自由,如耶稣基督,佛祖转世,普度众生,在此精神召唤下,五四应运而生,势如破竹,青年们一呼百应,破旧立新,由此奠定新中国基础。此为历史。历史者,数字及小说而已,供众人取乐,有根据的精神胜利法。

    我未亲历五四,但从后读来,五四却绝非德赛两字,整个历史时期,完整真实的呈现要复杂的多。德赛非热血青年,而是狡猾有力的枭雄,在丑陋现实的斗争中,确立自己的地位,完成代价巨大的转变。三国中周瑜曾歌:“丈夫处世兮立功名,立功名兮慰平生”。德赛功成名就之后可披锦衣,金盆洗手,布平和幸福之道。

    谬论!今人皆慕德赛之功名,却不见功名之路之残酷,不见千万山寨德赛横尸路上。五四之功,不在德,不在赛,而在Fight。热血激情,自由民主,不过浮华空壳,供后人顶礼膜拜而已。

    五四值得纪念,但可贵之处却早已流失,不过上下五千年,这又有什么可以遗憾。中华文化不在五四,不在百花,而在人人,在园中真实“丑陋”的土地。百花总有凋谢时,留得丰园待后春。

    五四已死,有事烧纸。

    2009-05-03

    Vosne Romanee Les Beaux Monts after de Fargues

    Remind you life is bitter  after a too sweet taste. 

    C2C cycle

    is important. After consideration, I decide to reserve more capital for fast turnover business instead of locking it up in long term investment. 

    2009-04-30

    RP effect

    RP finally pulls his trigger. 

    Lafite: 98-100

    Previous: 1590GBP for 1 case
    Now: 3375GBP with 1 case Rieussec(~475GBP)

    Out of my reach. So bet on Carruades de Lafite. 

    2009-04-27

    将进酒

    君不见

    黄河之水天上来
    奔流到海不复回
    君不见
    高堂明镜悲白发
    朝如青丝暮成雪
    人生得意须尽欢
    莫使金樽空对月
    天生我材必有用
    千金散尽还复来
    烹羊宰牛且为乐
    会须一饮三百杯
    岑夫子
    丹丘生
    将进酒
    君莫停
    与君歌一曲
    请君为我侧耳听
    钟鼓馔玉不足贵
    但愿长醉不愿醒
    古来圣贤皆寂寞
    惟有饮者留其名
    陈王昔时宴平乐
    斗酒十千恣讙谑
    主人何为言少钱
    径须沽取对君酌
    五花马
    千金裘
    呼儿将出换美酒
    与尔同消万古愁

    2009-04-26

    Everybody is watching

    what Robert Parker would say about 2008 Bordeaux. The final quote book...

    2009-04-17

    Porsche

    "...a hedge fund with a car showroom." -- Max Warburton

    History tells us, creating and trading risk is more much important than attempt to "manage" it. 

    2009-04-16

    Dual Track Price for Bordeaux?

    While the auction market is beginning to have a break from the free fall starting from 2008 which is best supported by the April Acker HK auction, the 2008 En Primeur, starting releasing this week, gives an opposite signal. 

    100 EUR for Mouton, 110 EUR for Latour, it has been years for consumers to see such a bargain (2008 is not a terrible vintage). Although some said they would stick to the old pricing mechanism, more and more top growths hint they would follow Latour and Mouton's steps. Personally, I am very interested in how Lafite and Cheval Blanc would react. 

    But that doesn't necessarily mean the return of budget wine era. For Bordeaux, divergence is inevitable. Price will fall a lot even for currently reputed wines. But for top names, it would still be a demand side play. 2008 may be just a noise and the bargain release price is just a strategy to test the market and, in certain degree, accelerate the convergence back to the equilibrium. It's just like what used by the HK real estate developer during hard times, just like the dual track price mechanism used in China's transition from central planning to market ecnonmy. 

    Whatever, the young market is experiencing turmoil now and this must be good for all the participants. We all learn from the process. 

    2009-03-27

    Irish Coffe

    Cool! Easy to make and great taste. 

    2005 Quilceda Creek Columbia Valley

    Upon opening, a little nose of alcohol, blackberry. Dark red, a little brown rim. Fruity, plum and tannic flavor, a little chocolate and earthy. A pleasant finish. Show balance and potential to develop already. See what happened after decanting. No big change after 2+ hrs decanting. A good wine, but definitely need time to develop. Will revisit after 5-10 years.

    2009-03-19

    The liquid gold

    What are the most expensive bottles for vintage 2005? Romanee Conti DRC, Petrus? For French wines, definitely. But check out this one: Scharzhofberger Riesling Trockenbeerenauslese, Weingut Egon Muller.  

    It seems crazy. But TBA is the crown of Germany wines. And E. Muller's Scharzhofberger TBA is the pearl on the crown. 

    The new Live-Ex classification

    http://liv-ex.typepad.com/livex_fine_wine_market_bl/2009/03/the-liv-ex-bordeaux-classification.html

    2009-03-17

    1982 Chateau Gruaud Larose

    Brick red color.

    Drink after 1.5 hrs decanting.  Very deep nose of chocolate, espresso. In mouth, smooth and powerful. Can feel oaky, black berries, earthy and floral. A long finish. 

    After 2 hrs decanting, the chocolate and espresso flavor peaked. 

    After 3 hrs decanting, the earthy and chocolate flavor faded. Fruity and floral flavors began to dominate.

    A good wine. 

    17/20

    2009-03-10

    Red, white and drunk all over

    by Natalie MacLean.

    A very funny book on her road to wine critic and several interesting topics on wine.  Recommend

    2009-03-07

    2009-03-06

    Trend Following

    If you ask me one way to become millionaire overnight, the suggestion is betting again trend. Again, if there is one way to blow up ASAP, it's betting again trend. 

    It's not contradicted if you know the theory of probability and fat tail. Trend is something so smart that can make Richard Dennis as well as something so stupid can bankrupt Lehman Bros. and Bear Sterns. 

    Trend following theory may be compensated by Elliot Wave. Or more accurately, it's just another detailed branch of trend following. The reason why it's so popular than hysteria and panic is because when people need a belief, they need that belief so philosophy, so humane, so robust to trust.. That's Elliot wave.

    The experience of a trader would be the learning process of how to guess trend from past history, and also, how to exclude his personal emotion from the unbeatable trend going or turning. So my suggestion is: Forget "Buy low and sell high", "timing is everything". These are BS. I will tell you a more detailed nonsense investment motto:

    It's all about trend, nothing less, nothing more.   

    2009-02-17

    Millennium Prize Problems in Economics?


    In my previous post, I mentioned the book by Marcus Du Sautoy on the history of prime numbers. Besides the main topic, this book also evokes my thinking on another thread. 

    You guys may know the famous 1899 Hilbert's 23 unsolved problems. It is then followed by Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems. So if there is a counterpart for economists, what would it like to be? 

    It may be harder to figure out compared with its mathematical cousin since economic problems are not so well defined given their close connections to real world problems. Assumption, modeling and solution are equivalently important. 

    2009-02-12

    2008年度名言

    From "Batman: The Dark Knight"

    HARVEY DENT

    It's not about what I want. It's about what's fair.
    (to Gordon and Batman)
    You thought we could be decent men in an indecent world. You thought we could lead by example. You thought the rules could be bent but not break... you were wrong. The world is cruel.
    (shows his coin)
    And the only morality in a cruel world is chance. Unbiased. Unprejudiced. Fair.

    2009-02-09

    霸王别姬

    http://oldrecords.xikao.com/sheng/yangxiaolou/ly/cc-bwbj12.wma

    梅兰芳去虞姬,杨小楼去项羽。梅位列四大名旦,而杨更被称为国剧宗师,这一段称得上前无古人,后亦恐无来者。看不到台上的,光是凭唱段就够了。

     近 侍:(白)启奏大王,汉兵攻打甚急。
     项 羽:(白)吩咐下去,四面迎敌者!
     近 侍:(白)领旨!
     项 羽:(白)且住呀!敌人攻打甚急,孤不出马,岂非怯战?此去必当战死沙场,再不能与妃子相见了。
     虞 姬:(白)大王此去,倘有不利,且退往江东,徐图后举,勿以妾为念也。
     项 羽:(白)哎呀,妃子啊!此番交战,必须要轻车简从,方能杀出重围,看来不能与妃子同行,这、这、这便怎么处?哦呵,有了!刘邦与孤旧友,你不如随了他去,也免得孤此去悬心。
     虞 姬:(白)大王啊!自古道:忠臣不事二主,烈女不嫁二夫。王欲图大事岂可顾一妇人?也罢!愿乞君王,三尺宝剑,自刎君前,喂呀!以报深恩也!
     项 羽:(白)妃子,你、你、你、你不可寻此短见。
     虞 姬:(白)大王啊!
         [哭相思]汉兵已略地,
             四面楚歌声。
             君王意气尽,
             贱妾何聊生!
     项 羽:(白)哇呀呀!(此哇呀呀叹尽霸王平生,妙绝)
     虞 姬:(白)快将宝剑与妾妃!
     项 羽:(白)千万不可!
     虞 姬:(白)大王,四面楚歌又唱起来了。
     项 羽:(白)待孤听来!
     虞 姬:(白)罢!
     项 羽:(白)哎呀!
    (奏[尾声])

    粤剧

    就我的感觉,其艺术性远不如京剧,也不如更为类似的黄梅戏和越剧。

    舞台布置很粗糙,人物对白比较俗套,而且唱腔单调,缺乏表现力。

    2009-02-01

    一剪梅·红藕香残玉簟秋

    李清照

    红藕香残玉簟秋。轻解罗裳,独上兰舟。云中谁寄锦书来?雁字回时,月满西楼。
    花自飘零水自流,一种相思,两处闲愁。此情无计可消除,才下眉头,却上心头。

    恭贺牛年

    值此新春佳节之际,敝人谨代表chinesegen,mavaron恭祝各位新年快乐,牛年倒大霉,熊运不断,一熊到底。

    祝各位股市的搞屎棍一赔到底,尽快破产,赶紧回去家里蹲,还股市以清净。

    祝各位俊男美女天天吵架,生活本不易,哪有美好的爱情,三聚氰胺都不让加了,肾上腺素还能持久么?

    祝各位80后父母被小孩折磨的不成人形,若不过此关,彻底顿悟,将来必是养儿为患。

    祝各位找工作的四处碰壁,食不果腹。本就是拾人牙慧,什么金领白领,不过是自欺欺人罢了。

    祝各位与熊共舞,认清现实,万物皆数字,横竖皆一死,做一个彻头彻底的唯物主义者。

    最后送大家一副挽联:

    牛熊本一体,又何分吉凶;
    悲喜虽两极,却皆由人定;

    横批: 和谐社会

    2009-01-02

    梅兰芳

    看了陈凯歌的梅兰芳,回想中国最近几十年导演的代表人物,张艺谋,陈凯歌,贾樟柯,各有各的风格。