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    2010-03-18

    The final push of 3-D tech

    "Madness is like gravity. All you need is a little push."
    - Joker, "The Dark Knight"

    The question is: who gives the 3-D tech the final push?

    There is no doubt that 2009 is the year of 3-D. We have seen a wave of 3-D movies, including the blockbusters "UP" and "Avatar". Also, electronics manufacturers are on a rush to roll out their 3-D TV. 2010 would be another go-go year. The WC will give 3-D TV a boost.

    One thing we need to make clear at first: 3-D tech is not something new. It has been there for years. But even today, the 3-D tech is still quite premature, or can be called "pseudo" 3-D. So it seems that the technology is not the major drive behind current 3-D mania. Then what is it?

    A popular theory is new technology or innovation usually would display a hump-shaped curve in the market. It also can be understood as a variation of the more general Elliot wave. In general, like what Jim Rogers said, people always swing between panic and hysteria.

    For 3-D tech, maybe we just see the first peak coming.

    2010-03-16

    Local beer in Hong Kong

    I suddenly get this question in my mind: why I haven't seen any locally brewed beer in HK? After googling, I find that there is indeed one local brewery:


    Though without any concreted numbers, I am sure beer consumption is high in HK, per capita. Only speaking of this, it seems to make perfect sense to run a business on this. However, the difficulty for a local brewery in HK may come from everywhere:

    1. Cost is high. It may not be economically sound to open a brewery at a place with high land rent and labor cost.

    2. Raw materials. Let alone hops and yeast. The other two key materials, barley and water, are not easy to find in HK. If it relies on import, the attractiveness would be reduced.

    3. Market competition. HK is a free market. Importers provide consumers here with hundreds of choices, at zero tax. A beer has to excel in one of the dimensions like brand image, cost or taste, to claim its own share in the competitive market.

    Anyway, I do see a chance here. There are answers to all the questions above. And the most important, is a passion for beer.

    2010-03-14

    The bright future of computational biology

    I have been looking into computational biology for some time, in particular, the molecular dynamics part. One sure application is the drug design. Successful cases have been reported (see J. Andrew McCammon's papers). That's probably also the reason why D.E. Shaw is so devoted into this.

    What happens behind the scene is that computational biology has totally changed the way of drug discovery/design. From traditional target drug test, we has made the drug business a search, like Google did for Internet, in plain words, 筛沙. With this change, we are able to make use of all computational resources on this planet and fundamentally accelerate the process.

    If we think a little bit wider, we may see the application goes far beyond drug business. Any traditional business may have its own chance to be reshaped. For example, in wine business, both oenology and viticulture can be revisited. Of course, further homework needs to be done to see whether such changes make perfect sense, both technically and economically.

    What I say here may not go real overnight, but in 5-10 years time, we have a great chance to see the explosion of such revolutions. Like what Monsanto did to what we eat, finally, we, human being, will be nothing but a combination of naked numbers.

    2010-03-08

    The curious case of Benjamin Button

    Feels like Forrest Gump. A good movie.

    "When it comes to the end, you have to let go."