Mavaron's Twitter

    follow me on Twitter

    2008-12-15

    看看域名注册如何SB

    shabi.me=> 已被注册

    2008-12-13

    Moon River

    I have no idea how many versions there are. It's like the benchmark song for every pop singer. Some versions I like:

    1. Original Audrey Hepburn
    2. Louis Armstrong, it sounds so different
    3. Jennifer Love Hewitt
    4. Andrea Ross
    5. Dean Martin, the real-world "Johnny Fontane"?

    2008-12-08

    Love Me Little, Love Me Long

    (我看到的时候想的翻译是"日渐情,日久情"。后来google的是"两情若是久长时,又岂在朝朝暮暮",不俗。)

    Anonymous


    Love me little, love me long,
    Is the burden of my song.
    Love that is too hot and strong

    Burneth soon to waste.
    Still, I would not have thee cold,
    Not too backward, nor too bold;
    Love that lasteth till tis old

    Fadeth not in haste.
    Love me little, love me long,
    Is the burden of my song.

    If thou lovest me too much,
    It will not prove as true as touch;
    Love me little, more than such,

    For I fear the end.
    I am with little well content,
    And a little from thee sent
    Is enough, with true intent

    To be steadfast friend.
    Love me little, love me long,
    Is the burden of my song.

    Say thou lov'st me while thou live;
    I to thee my love will give,
    Never dreaming to deceive

    Whiles that life endures.
    Nay, and after death, in sooth,
    I to thee will keep my truth, 
    As now, when in my May of youth;

    This my love assures.
    Love me little, love me long,
    Is the burden of my song.

    Constant love is moderate ever,
    And it will through life persever;
    Give me that, with true endeavor

    I will it restore.
    A suit of durance let it be,
    For all weathers that for me,
    For the land or for the sea,

    Lasting evermore.
    Love me little, love me long,
    Is the burden of my song.

    Winter's cold, or summer's heat,
    Autumn's tempests on it beat,
    It can never know defeat,

    Never can rebel.
    Such the love that I would gain,
    Such the love, I tell thee plain,
    Though must give, or woo in vain; 

    So to thee, farewell!
    Love me little, love me long,
    Is the burden of my song.

    2008-12-07

    The perfect store

    Inside eBay by Adam Cohen.

    A very good book about how eBay started and grew to current magnate. There are many insights inside the book, like how the founders hesitated and made decisions in front of difficulties and uncertainties.

    Strongly recommend.

    2008-12-04

    梅兰芳

    看到陈凯歌导演的梅兰芳首映,想起我看过的一部纪录片,"粉墨春秋"。是由张元监制的。做得相当不错,无论是对于事件线索的整理还是对于同一个线索"花开两朵,各表一枝"的表现手法,以及插入影像和配乐的处理,都为整部片子增色不少。

    2008-12-03

    Decode IBFX contest (II)

    Pick up the thread. We now talk about how to get the IBFX contest winner bonus free of risk. 

    The contest is held monthly and the top 5 percentage winners would be awarded, bonus ranged from $3,000-$250.

    It might look hard if you give a historical review. The top gunner can have 300-600% return. Now I show you how to get thte bonus even if you are a fresh hand. 

    First, you need to find a bunch of your friends to help you carry out this plan. Let's say you can have 16 accounts, including your own. Then you play a binomial tree game. That is, you first split the 16 accounts into two groups and they carry out exactly opposite actions. So, if one of your group blow up, then the other group's asset must be doubled. The 2nd stage, you split the survived group into a 4-4. Then continue the same process. 

    Theoretically, you can have a highest return by this method up to 1,600% which can well assure you a bonus in the contest. Besides, your own investment is not hurt since any of your moves is strictly paired. The only cost is the spread cost which you need to do some homework on. 

    This method, theoretically, may not work all the time. You have to assure your strategy can really boost at least one of your portfolios instead of making them all stay mediocre. However, in forex market, it's not hard to fetch such a path as long as you have some experience. 

    Actually this gives rise to a deeper thought. If such pattern is public, there is no liquidity problem in number of accounts. Then it's a fair game again. Everyone would compete the path they can fetch. Besides, for IBFX, it's much more better off. That's also a reason why it doesn't point out the pattern. Of course, the enormous effort needed to track such behaviors is also in consideration. 

    2008-12-01

    偶然看到北大门卡入校的消息,想起梅贻琦的一句话

    “所謂大學者,非謂有大樓之謂也,有大師之謂也”

    照我看现在的中国大学,大师估计做不到,大门还是可以的,不过可惜的是应该努力的是建造心灵的大门,而不是钢铁的大门。

    用冠军送别图巴


    99年对泰山队来说,让所有泰山球迷刻骨铭心的,是足协杯决赛主场对大连的一波三折,是一个赛季未开张的罗梅罗临别的帽子戏法,是他最后一分钟的绝杀,当然,如果稍微往后看一点的话,那么桑尼和邵克难的绝唱也算一种缺憾美。

    9年以后的今天,在一个不可同日而语的漂亮场地上,我们的技战术素养也是不可同日而语的球员们,踢完一场让人皱眉的比赛,依旧依靠另外一场比赛的平局,完成了三冠的任务。

    很多人说不该苛责,因为心理压力是任何人都无法避免的难题,的确,我也认为即便输掉这场比赛,输掉冠军,也没有什么可以责备的,不过不是因为什么心理压力,而是因为之前的比赛早已决定了结果,如果不看朱骏的天花乱坠,不看媒体的煽风点火,去看看鲁能之前的比赛,难道不让人觉得可悲?周文渊说是弱势冠军,鲁能的弱势似乎验证了其他球队的进步,不过我看不过是正常的周期理论,鲁能的弱势虽然可以解释为相对的进步,不过我觉得更为可悲的是联赛最高水平的没落,面对世界足球的进步,中国足球的落后更加明显。其他球队的周期性进步就一定会演化成未来的共同提高么?从中超的历史做不出这样的推断。

    一个充满概率的冠军或者战绩没有任何意义,正如当年的凯泽斯劳滕早已沉沦乙级一样。不过或许对于今天的鲁能,从某种意义上,它是一个救命的冠军,如果没有,那么面对当前的改革形势,这样一个地位尴尬的俱乐部或许明年就会土崩瓦解,而现在,我们或许还有几年时间去尝试变革。

    正如很多媒体和球迷所说的,无论是俱乐部还是图巴,球员,现在更多的是在吃过去的老本,如果说06年我们看到了一个充满希望的冠军,甚至即便对手也不得不承认用那种阵容开创一个时代的可能性,那么今年我们只能说对于未来,我们一无所知,在前面的,或许更大的可能是一个衰败,至于说有多快,只要看看大连就知道了。

    聊聊球员,我们85一代现在已经消耗殆尽,除了几个在替补席上无所适从的替补或许还有一些潜力,其他的基本都已经没什么潜力可挖,而现在的他们果真就如此出色么,看看大连的81一代,能说苑维伟,吕征,周海滨们就一定超过了王圣,阎嵩,胡兆军么?除了少数几个,其他水平差得远。大连的昨天就是我们的今天,而大连的今天难保不是我们的明天。

    很多人挽留图巴,的确,好像把一个夺冠教练解约确实没有什么先例,虽然夺冠后下一个赛季崩盘的球队的例子比比皆是。不过同样,我也从来没见过一个教练在赛季开始的时候就赌气的宣布这会是最后一个赛季。设想假如我们大败给广州而失去冠军?也许球迷会砸车,球员会群殴,俱乐部会清查,而图巴,则可以气冲冲的回塞尔维亚,去揭露他的内幕。我们距离这些,难道真的很远么?为什么不趁现在的机会,让大家好聚好散,而不是把这些都留在下一个赛季,既然现实或许不能改变,我们为什么不选择保留一些起码美好的回忆,就让图巴,康梦君们,带着美好的回忆,带着他们早已透支的支票离开,为他们自己,为鲁能,为球迷留下一个值得回忆的过去,和一个起码充满不确定性的未来。

    所谓的稳定的王朝,无一例外是从变革开始的,曼联,切尔西,巴萨,甚至今天的鲁能,不也是从鲍里斯开始,当球队的下降趋势明显,以及依靠现有资源的可挖掘潜力已经非常有限的时候,何必抱有幻想而不是具备变革的勇气?

    未来难以预测,也许图巴明年会抱回亚冠冠军,抑或赛季结束后和康老总一起黯然下课,不过确定的是过去,是已经拿到的三冠,这也许就是大家为什么总喜欢谈论过去,喜欢想当然,而不喜欢未来和与之形影不离的不确定性。