The future of iPad (and Apple?)

Another article here.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/technology/personaltech/03tablet.html?ref=technology

For Apple, like Tomjanovich said after Rockets won the 1995 NBA title, there have been "nonbelievers all along the way." The bears summoned power for every opportunity but only have failed miserably each time (I mean long-time bear, not those quick profit takers). So people may wonder, is this prediction just the beginning of another false alarm?

It may or may not.

I was pessimistic on iPad before its release, but changed my mind when I owned one myself. However, whether a product is successful or unsuccessful does not change the nature the game. In my opinion, either the cost or the technology can help latecomers overtake Apple. Cost advantage did not help them in the battle with iPod, iPhone, then how can it be effective in the iPad battle? As for the technology stuff, I think it's a pretty efficient market, and Apple may even have bigger change for new technology promotion given its dominant market power.

The key is pointed out in the last part of the article, "you need developers."

I have written a paper on the compatibility competition in network market, and I think the same logic applies to iPad, and to the future of Apple. It wouldn't be long for us to see a platform which can seamlessly put application for all tablets which would certainly undermine Apple's "social network" advantage. And I view that as the turning point and the catalyst necessary for me to short AAPL.