Apple

What happened in the recent one month seems to prove the efficient market theory. After rallying to near $100 due to the release of iPhone and iTV at Macworld, AAPL now has fallen back to $85. Efficient market curse appears, even on this American brand.

Although all analysts are bullish on it, the unsure near-term prospect still attracts many bets on its down side. Even we are expecting a "short squeeze", such hope is quite airy.

Confidence should come from fundamental but not technical reasons.

The release of iTV in Feb could be a short-term catalyst for another round of rally. iPhone is still too far to give the stock a solid support while iTV could prove something. Apple is strong because of its brand power. It's the only player in its own market. That's why even everyone feels iPod's price is far out of the way, it still works quite fine. If iTV or iPhone could continue the tradition, bear would be blown away in no time.

One big difference between Apple and other giants like Google, Cisco, is Apple doesn't make acquisitions throughout its development. This, in one hand, reinforces its unique role in the market, and in the other hand, becomes part of Apple Philosophy which many doubt won't last for long. Looking back, we may find some similarities and dissimilarities. Apple was not a forerunner in mp3 player area either and it directly entered the high-end market. However, mobile equipment seems more mature than mp3 player right now, and it's really hard this time to create a private "Apple market".

The mobile phone competition is very keen and one weapon Apple could rely on is still its iPod stuff. And the problem is, if can't make big difference, iPhone creates a direct competition with the old money generator: iPod. From this angle, iTV might be a real potential star rather than iPhone.

After long waited iPhone and iTV, Apple may not rush into another innovation before new guys get proven in market. However, this time, the acceptance from market may not come naturally. And I just wonder whether $85 includes this.

Apple is a fantastic brand that few doubt. But don't forget it was once leader at the beginning of IT era and was a great brand since then. And it just turned around from the bottom by successful combination blows in recent years. For those iPhone zealots, they believe history repeats. However, we don't know how long the period is.