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    2010-04-28

    How to train your dragon (HTYD) sequel

    Not surprisingly, Dreamworks is going to roll out a sequel to the new "blockbuster". But whether it can be successful is highly suspicious.

    First,  HTYD's success cannot contribute to the movie itself alone. There are many exogenous factors, such as release time, movie review, that all together result its success. The sequel may not be able to replicate those factors.

    Second, Dreamworks is different from Disney. Disney movies are more traditional style, and the high quality is consistent. Dreamworks is more maverick, and unpredictable. It can produce witty Shrek I and II, while can also produce rubbish Shrek III and Monsters vs Aliens. There is no guarantee of the quality. Surely there can be upside surprise, but downside disappointment more likely.

    HTYD is not as good as its box office seems to be. Its success may be totally accidental and not replicable. Given past experience, there is high probability Dreamworks will screw up its sequel again.

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